"India recorded a current account surplus of $7.1 billion (0.7% of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY26 supported by higher services exports and a rise in remittances from overseas Indians," but lower than the $13.7 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, in the same quarter of the last financial year. "However, for the full financial year 2025-26, the current account deficits widened to $25.2 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, from $22.9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, in FY25." TOI. Excellent example of how percentages can be totally misleading. "One of the most consequential transformations of the Narendra Modi era," is that, "Over the past decade, Indian households have steadily shifted a portion of their savings from traditional assets such as bank deposits, gold and real estate into equity and mutual funds." Total market capitalization has risen from $1.14 trillion in 2013 to nearly $4.84 trillion currently." CNBC. Perhaps, people have been forced by financial repression as the interest income from bank savings and fixed deposits is clubbed with earnings and taxed at the applicable income tax rate. DBS. After the decrease in value of savings by inflation is factored in, the returns from investment in banks becomes almost zero. Can Indian markets go on rising to infinity? If not, what is the ceiling beyond which there are no returns? "India's equity market has come under severe bearish grip again," "As foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to dump Indian shares and the West Asia conflict escalates again, leading to higher crude oil prices, the D-Street has started to feel the heat again." TNIE. "For the last two years, the Indian stock market has been a growth ghost town," and "It is precisely because these market powerhouses are wounded that they have now become incredibly dangerous for bears, and possibly ripe for an explosive rally." msn.com. Is this a prediction based on logical market analysis or just hot air to induce people to keep investing in shares? The government taxes every purchase and sale of shares, called Securities Transaction Tax (STT), sale of mutual funds, and options and futures transactions. cleartax.in. As a result, the contribution of STT to total income tax collections has risen from 3.3% in 2021-22 to 5.4% in 2024-25. And so, "Despite implementing tax cuts in the latest Budget, the Centre estimates a robust 14.4% growth in income tax collections in 2025-26, thanks to an unexpected boost from STT revenues." Mint. How are Indian markets going to start rising again? Apparently, "As a violent tech meltdown triggers an unwinding of the global artificial intelligence trade in America's Nasdaq, South Korea and Taiwan, analysts say, India could emerge as the ultimate 'anti-AI' trade, positioning Dalal Street to become a major relative beneficiary and an oasis of peace in a fracturing financial landscape." "FIIs have aggressively abandoned India," and "This relentless exodus was directly engineered by an explosive chip rally in Taiwan and South Korea, which pushed their market capitalization above India's." TNIE. On the other hand, "Indian IT majors, TCS, Infosys and others saw their stocks decline as fears of AI-led workforce disruptions threatened the working model of this sector." The compound annual growth rate CAGR of earnings of Indian companies has collapsed from over 20% to just 5-6%. TOI. Will a collapse of other markets divert FIIs to India? If FIIs lose money they may cut down on new investments and prefer developed economies as they switch to a risk-off mode. Indian markets could fall further as FIIs repatriate money to pay home investors. Wishing ill of others because India has no AI or chip industry is nasty. Could boomerang.
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