Controlled RBI, decontrolled foreigners.

"Even as the global economy faces uncertainty from slowing growth, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, the World Bank believes India is well-positioned to maintain strong economic growth and continue creating jobs. A senior World Bank official Paul Procee said India's economic fundamentals, expanding trade partnerships and large domestic market provide a strong foundation for sustained growth in the years ahead." MC. The World Bank's optimism is not shared by Indians. "Urban consumers turned more pessimistic about the economy, jobs and spending in May," as "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS) showed consumer confidence for the current period fell for the third consecutive round, with the Current Situation Index (CSI) declining to 90.7 in May from 95.7 in March." ET. Since anything below 100 is negative, it seems that people are going from pessimism towards hopelessness. Current employment conditions fell from minus 9.1 to minus 14.4, naturally "The net response on overall spending eased to 74.0 from 78.4." Trying to support the falling rupee, the government "granted full tax exemption on interest income and capital gains earned on government securities by foreign investors." And also the Bank for International Settlements. Capital gains on securities held for longer than 12 months was taxed at 12.5%, while less than 12 months faced a 20% tax. Mint. The RBI "expanded the range of government bonds that foreign investors can buy without investment restrictions," and "also raised the limits for investments by non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas citizens of India (OCI) in listed Indian equities without requiring registration with market regulator SEBI." ET. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the regulator for securities, stock and commodity markets. wikipedia. The SEBI is silent, so is the RBI intruding on SEBI's territory? If so, how? In his acceptance speech of the 2026 John F Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell said, "Central banks make monetary policy under high uncertainty," and they "do not take into account the fortunes of any political party or politician in making those decisions." "The reason the Fed has been able to resist political pressure is that it is protected by institutional mechanisms that mandate its independence." MInt. The SEBI is "under the administrative domain of Ministry of Finance within the government of India," while "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. To increase trade the government has signed "15 operational free trade agreements (FTA) covering 27 countries, while another nine agreements involving 42 countries are awaiting implementation." But the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warned that "Rising trade deficits, limited use of FTA benefits by exporters, manufacturing distortions and growing regulatory burdens are among the issues that could erode the gains." ET. The RBI has told "state-run firms and local banks to raise dollars overseas, bring them home, and get a big discount on their hedging cost until Sept. 30." The authorities are trying to "stabilize the currency, keep domestic rates low, and avoid capital controls." But, "The only path to lasting peace on India's external accounts goes through higher (interest) rates," wrote Andy Mukherjee. At its recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 5 June, the interest rate was unchanged at 5.25%, while the GDP growth forecast was cut from 6.9% to 6.6% and the inflation rate forecast for 2026-27 was raised to 5.1% from 4.6%. ET. Which means "the effective real rate of interest falling to close to zero by the second quarter (if one considers the repo rate of 5.25% and second quarter inflation at 5.1%) and negative 0.65% if one takes the third-quarter inflation projection of 5.9%," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. Trying to increase hot money flows without decreasing consumption, by raising rates, will store problems for the future. Are the RBI's actions based on an analysis of India's economy in relation to global events and how other nations are reacting to those events, or are they based on prayers that the Iran conflict would be over soon and oil prices will plummet as sanctions of Iran are lifted, causing a glut of oil in the market? However, even if the conflict is over tomorrow, it may take years to repair war damage before oil flows resume at full flow. Our future resting on a wing and a prayer. After all, the official motto of the US is "In God we trust". wikipedia. Hindi-Yankee bhai bhai.