Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Follow SpaceX.

A week after its initial public offering (IPO), "SpaceX shares rose 4.8% to close at $201.80, giving Elon Musk's company a market value of roughly $2.655 trillion - some $800 billion more than when it sold its record IPO last week." Reuters. Music to Mr Mukesh Ambani whose Jio Platforms Ltd is headed for its own IPO. With 525 subscribers "paying Rs 214 a month on average, Jio garners $15 billion in operational revenue at a 52% Ebitda margin," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Is there enough money for the IPO? "About $55-65 billion is expected to flow into the country due to the RBI move to bear full hedging cost of banks for raising fresh 3-5 year FCNR(B) deposits and providing a concessional forex swap facility to incentivise ECBs (external commercial borrowing) by PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings), according to estimates by the State Bank of India's economic research department." The Hindu. This will result in a flood of liquidity into banks which will enable local institutions and savers to subscribe to Jio's $4 billion worth of IPO. However, former Credit Suisse analyst Ashish Gupta "reminds us that massive record-breaking IPOs have historically presaged market tops." Usually followed by deep market corrections. "The logic is straightforward: Mega-IPOs act as a structural liquidity drain, sucking vital capital out of  secondary markets." "The danger is particularly elevated in India where the banking system's 12% deposit growth is 4 percentage points slower than credit expansion," wrote Mukherjee. Will it produce jobs? "The aggregate net income of listed Indian firms is approaching a record 6%  of gross domestic product (GDP). Even so, their capital expenditure (new investment) has remained flat, hovering at 3.6% to 3.7% of GDP." "The good jobs that come with new factories, warehouses and showrooms are becoming elusive. Since wages support many more people than dividend or stock market gains, inequality is worsening." Only Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, the Tata Group and Sajjan Jindal intend to invest, the rest do not. Even Pirojsha Godrej, chairman-designate of the Godrej Industries Group, plans wealth management, wrote Mukherjee. "A majority of global emerging-market (EM) investors continue to remain underweight on India...according to a report by Jefferies" which "analysed 70 large EM funds managing assets of about $320 billion as of March 2026 and found 61% of them were underweight India relative to benchmark allocations." FE. Indian manufacturers cannot compete against Chinese companies because the Chinese are subsidised through "3 major channels of sustained state support: direct state grants, preferential tax treatment and access to below-market borrowing through state-backed financial institutions. Together these reduce costs, lower investment risks and allow firms to expand more aggressively than competitors operating under commercial conditions," wrote Shishir Priyadarshi. One big problem is that state governments refuse to honor contracts made by previous governments. "Political parties across the board are guilty of reversing their predecessor's decisions or refusing to honor the commitments of past governments, citing reasons such as corruption, illegal tendering, environmental concerns and public interest. There may be some truth in these reasons, experts argue, but the end result is dwindling investors' confidence in Indian states." The Print. Trickery by the Chinese, vindictiveness of Indian politicians or fear of losses of Indian businesses, lack of investment means no jobs. The JIO IPO will probably sail through. Because of SpaceX. Musk's genius.    

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