Sunday, July 20, 2025
Living in Goldilocks world.
"India's economy is showing signs of entering what economists often call a 'Goldilocks' phase - neither too hot, nor too cold - marked by moderate, sustainable growth coupled with subdued inflation." ET. Goldilocks is a fairy tale about a little girl and a family of three bears, in which the little girl rejects either extreme and chooses the moderate middle. It ends with the girl running away. Storynory. "India's GDP growth remained steady at 6.5% in FY2024-25, and the RBI projects a similar trajectory for the current fiscal year." China's, "Economic growth will slow to 4.7% in 2025 and weaken further in 2026 to 4.3%." OECD. "Multilateral financing agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that India will retain its position as the fastest-growing major economy by clocking a GDP growth of 6.5% in 2025-26." ET. That being the case, why is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) so keen on reducing interest rates to stimulate economic growth? "The RBI may plan to cut interest rates further if inflation goes below its projection or growth comes under pressure, Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated." MInt. For the fifth straight month, "Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, from 2.8% in May." It was because prices of food and beverages, which have a weightage of 46% in the CPI, have deflated by 0.2%. However, other components in the CPI basket have increased in price, including "education and healthcare costs and prices of many daily-use items. This means that the cost of living may not have come down even though the expenditure on food has declined." DH. "Car sales by Indian automakers to dealerships dropped to an 18-month low in June, dragged down by sluggish demand in urban markets." ET. "India's goods trade deficit is projected to widen to USD 300 billion in FY26, up from USD 287 billion in FY25, as weak global demand weighs on exports." ET. An analysis of 285 BSE-listed firms "showed a 12% year-on-year jump in total cash holdings to Rs 5.09 trillion in FY25," and "new project announcements dropped 5% in FY25." FE. Why produce if demand is weak? And fewer projects mean fewer jobs. "Two Indian nationals were killed and another, Ranjeet Singh from Jammu and Kashmir's Ramban district, was abducted in a terror attack in Niger's Dosso region on 08 July." TOI. Niger is a poor landlocked country in West Africa with a Real per capita GDP of $1700 and a total fertility rate of 6.64 children per woman. cia.gov. An Indian nurse Nimisha Priya has been sentenced to death in Yemen. BBC. Yemen is another dirt-poor country south of Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting a civil war since 2015 and a nominal GDP per capita of just $617. wikipedia. If India is growing gangbusters why are citizens going to these wretched countries looking for jobs? Are we just living in a fairy tale world? Like Goldilocks?
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