Saturday, July 05, 2025

If it works.

"It's suddenly fashionable to talk about how the era of 'American exceptionalism' is ending, given Trump's policies," but, "The surprise however is that despite the shocks emanating from Washington and West Asia US stocks are still grinding higher. And so are US bond prices, despite exploding US deficit," wrote Ruchir Sharma. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate at 4.1%, and the average hourly earnings at 36.30 showed little change in June, both the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index increased just 0.1% in May while the US import price index remained unchanged. Annual CPI inflation was 2.4% in May, a tad higher than 2.3% in April. FX Street. "US job growth was unexpectedly solid in June, but nearly half of the increase in non-farm payrolls came from the government sector, with private industry gains the smallest in eight months." Reuters. That must be encouraging because "At least 128,709 workers have been laid off or targeted for layoffs from federal agencies so far. CNN. "President Donald Trump said...that the US will charge 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal," while, "Vietnam will charge no tariffs on US products." "Dozens of other economies, including the European Union and Japan, are scrambling to make their own deals with the US." BBC. "Ahead of a July 9 deadline, US officials are deep in talks with major trading partners in Asia and Europe, pushing for new agreements that would include restrictions on Chinese content, or secure commitments to counter what Washington sees as China's unfair trade Practices." ET. A worried China "accused Washington of abusing tariffs," and "firmly opposes any party striking a deal at China's expense and will take 'countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner." Reuters. China has already responded vindictively. "China's decision in April to suspend exports of a wide range of rare earths and related magnets has upended the supply chains central to automakers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world." Reuters. "Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the 'take it or leave it' offers to be sent out on Monday (tomorrow)." Reuters. Yesterday, Trump signed his 'Big Beautiful Bill' into law, making his tax cuts permanent and adding tax deductions on tips, overtime and auto loans. NDTV. Left wing critics say that Trump uses his unpredictability as a strategic and political asset according to the 'Madman Theory'. BBC. But, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok thinks that Trump and his administration may have 'outsmarted' the economists. ET. Madman if it fails, genius if it succeeds. The proof of the pudding, as it were.

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