Monday, July 21, 2025
It's only natural.
India's GDP grew at an average of 7.85% in the last two years but, "The World Bank has cut its estimate of India's GDP growth in 2025-26 from 6.7% to 6.3%." The current account deficit is close to zero, CPI inflation fell to 2.1% in June and the fiscal deficit has been cut to 4.45% of GDP. However, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and car sales are down. India is doing much better than other emerging economies, still we have to wait and see what effect US tariffs have on India, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "India's economy is consumption-driven, with private final consumption expenditure contributing nearly 60% of India's gross domestic product (GDP)." Since the pandemic, government debt has declined from 88% of GDP to 82% by December 2024 and corporate debt has declined from 66% of GDP in 2017 to just over 50% after the pandemic. This simultaneous deleveraging has adversely affected household income, "particularly at a time when household balance sheets increasingly have loans to be paid back," wrote Rajani Sinha & Sarbartho Mukherjee. Without income growth household demand will remain weak. "As many as 303 companies turned debt free in FY25, doubling the cash on their books, in a sign that India Inc remains reluctant to make substantial new investments." FE. India may soon become the world's third largest economy, but Prof Raghuram Rajan "argued that India has failed to create globally recognized product leaders, despite the size of its domestic market and extensive state support for businesses." "Rajan points out that India does not have a single company known worldwide for its products." ET. State protection means that companies do not have to compete and a large domestic market provides huge profits without any effort. To export means having to compete on quality, innovation and price. Why bother? Prof Rajan said that "recent rate cuts are not a 'magic bullet' that will automatically create a wave of private sector investment." "Data from the Ministry of Statistics shows the private sector's share in India's gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell to an 11-year low of 32.4% in FY24." BT. As a result of customs duty going up from 20% to 70% on Chinese toys, "Between FY2019 and FY2024, toy imports fell nearly 80%, from $304 million to $64.9 million," while imports from China "dropped from around $263 million to just over $41 million." However, "while fewer finished toys are coming from China, most components, LEDs, circuit boards, plastics, packaging, still are." ET. Companies are not entirely to blame. "An entrepreneur's detailed Reddit post about the hurdles of building a legal warehouse in India went viral online. His stories of delays and bribes exposed the exhausting reality of navigating the system." India Today. Why blame the private sector when the system is rotten? Everyone likes easy money. It's natural.
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