Thursday, July 10, 2025

Term limits for R&D.

In December 2024, "The US stock market now floats above the rest, with relative prices at a record since data began over a century ago, and relative valuations at a peak since data began more than half a century ago. As a result, US accounts for nearly 70% of the leading global stock index, up from 30% in the 1980s." It's the mother of all bubbles and must deflate like all bubbles, wrote Ruchir Sharma. On 02 July 2025, "It's suddenly fashionable to talk about how the era of 'American exceptionalism' is ending, given Trump's policies," but, "US stocks seem to be floating along at historically high valuations on data continuing to show that Trump's policies have yet to impact inflation or growth in any meaningful way," wrote Sharma. In fact, "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%. The reason: America is the world's leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading only in electric vehicles and other green tech," Prof Nouriel Roubini. India is the opposite. "Economist Sanjeev Sanyal has raised questions about the Indian private sector's willingness to take risks in research and development in cutting-edge fields like artificial intelligence." "Everywhere in the world, the real cutting edge - even in space technology - is now run by private sector, So where is our Elon Musk to take all these crazy risks?" asked economist Sanjeeve Sanyal. "We overlook the fact that it was heavy outlays in R&D that sent Korea's economy rocketing in the 1970s." "Korea spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%." "Tellingly, Samsung invests 8-11% on R&D, but Reliance a paltry 0.6%," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. Ordinary people do not understand R&D, so it cannot buy votes. Handouts can and do. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country, data released by statistics ministry showed." TOI. Social security for over 64% of a population of 1,464 million people (worldometer) requires a lot of money. Hence taxes are very high in India. Corporate tax rates are lower than personal income tax but "Stocks attract at least 12.5% capital gains tax. Bonds can cost more than 33% in tax." Dividend income and rent from real estate are also taxed at high rates. And so, the wealthy run businesses in India but invest abroad," wrote Akshat Shrivastava. "Indian corporates are doubling down on their post pandemic preference for cash buffers and leaner balance sheets over aggressive borrowing." MC. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 5.5% to encourage new investments but "The data don't show any evidence of that." "The private sector's capacity-expansion intentions have fallen to a three-year low. Banks' exposure to industries that used to be some of their biggest borrowers - roads,power, telecommunications, ports, airports, construction, property builders - is down to 11% of their loan book, half of what it was a decade ago," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The government's hunger for taxes to finance its spending on social security means excessive and punitive regulations. To send a sample abroad took 18 months whereas it takes just 24 hours in China, wrote Ganesh Krishnan. BT. It's Trump's second term in office and he cannot stand anymore. He has no need to distribute handouts. Perhaps India should also have term limits. That will limit the need for bribing voters. More money for R&D.      

No comments: