Saturday, July 12, 2025

Retiring or redundant?

"Between late May and early June, Chinese President Xi Jinping simply disappeared. No parades. No spotlight." "Even stranger, Xi's personal security detail has been halved." "General Zhang Youxia who helped Xi secure an historic third term, is rumored to be calling the shots in the People's Liberation Army." "Dozens of generals loyal to Xi have vanished or been replaced." ET. For the first time in over a decade, Xi missed the BRICS summit in Brazil on 6-7 July 2025 (brics.br). "Xi Jinping is staying away from the Rio de Janeiro summit to concentrate on managing China's economic challenges." Mint. In October 2016 Xi was named a 'core' leader. "In Chinese political hagiography, a core leader of the Party is one whose teachings and policies determine and drive the grand strategy of the Chinese state." "Only three other Chinese leaders have been anointed core leaders: Mao (posthumously), Deng Xiaoping (who invented the notion) and Jiang Zemin." orfonline.org. But, "Chinese President Xi Jinping, widely regarded as a leader for life, is beginning to delegate authority to key organs of the Chinese Communist Party, a first in his over 12-year rule." "All of Xi's predecessors retired after two five-year terms, while he continued in power with no term limits, earning him the label of president for life." ET. The question is: does Xi really want to retire or is he being slowly pushed out? In October 2022, former leader Hu Jintao was asked to leave the stage during the Communist Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. "Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that Mr Hu was escorted from the chamber after feeling unwell. But Mr Hu, 79, appeared reluctant to move. If that is the case, why?" BBC. In 2023, Xi missed the G20 meeting during 9-10 September in Delhi, India (g20.in). This was the first time that Xi missed a G20 meeting and it may have been because of the summer's Beidaihe meeting, "the annual get-together of incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, Hebei Province." "Sources said that at this year's gathering, a group of party elders reprimanded the top leader in ways they had not until now. Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides." HT. In October 2023, former Chinese premier Li Keqiang died suddenly of a heart attack at aged 68. "He was the only incumbent top official who didn't belong to Mr Xi's loyalists group." BBC. However, "Even the Chinese public do not believe the official story. There is even a rumor circulating among Chinese online groups that Li's obituary was written the day before he died, causing still more people to believe that his death may have been 'brought about'." Taipei Times. All of this would not matter if the economy was doing well. But it's not. The property market is in doldrums, unemployment among young people is high, people are reluctant to spend and the population is aging. BBC. Will there be a civil war in China along the lines of the Cultural Revolution (wikipedia)? It will be great for us. In India.      

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