Surplus or deficit?

"India and the United Kingdom yesterday signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)," which secures continued access for Indian nationals under the UK's business mobility routes, such as short-term business visitors, intra-corporate transferees (ICT), contractual service suppliers and independent professionals." HT. The present leader of the Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch (BBC), who was the UK International Trade Secretary in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government (ukibc.com) said, "As business secretary, even as I was trying to do things to limit immigration, we had an India FTA where they kept trying to bring in migration and I said no." TOI. So, we just waited them out. Of course, ease of access depends on whether British companies have any need for such services or whether they can get cheaper deals elsewhere. "UK and India's bilateral trade is set to get a more than $34 billion annual boost over the long term," as "92% of goods exported by UK to India will see tariffs removed entirely or reduced, while as much as 99% of Indian goods shipped to Britain will be exempt from tariffs." CNBC. 99% vs 92% sounds like an immense victory, but we should remember that we are getting 99% of the total UK population of about 70 million while the UK is getting 92% of India's population, the largest in the world, at about 1,465 million. Worldometer. The UK imports just $1.9 billion worth of India's labor-intensive goods and services and "The new trade pact promises zero or near-zero tariffs on textiles, leather and footwear, engineering goods, chemicals and pharmaceuticals - relief govt says will make Indian exports far more competitive." TOI. That is good news but we still have to compete with other countries. China is an expert at dumping goods at very cheap prices because it has massive excess production capacity, the Chinese government supports industries with subsidies and other help (The Print) and a fall in exports to the US because, as of May 2025, "the US's average tariff on Chinese goods stands at 51.1%" (China Briefing). While India has failed to reach a trade deal with the US on tariffs (CNBC), the US has signed trade deals with other countries, as it did with the Philippines and Indonesia recently (Reuters). Besides, after Brexit, Britain is committed to negotiate trade deals with as many countries as it can (BBC) and they could ask for the same sort of deal that has been agreed with India. India has already signed an Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) under which "Over 85% of Australian goods exports by value to India are now tariff free, rising to 90% by 1 January 2026, and high tariffs have been reduced on some further agricultural products. In addition, 90% of imports from India are now tariff free, rising to 100% by 1 January 2026." dfat.gov.au. Following the agreement, bilateral merchandise trade has surged from $12.2 billion in 2020-21 to more than double at $26 billion in 2022-23. At the same time, the trade deficit with Australia jumped from $8.5 billion in 2020-21 to $12 billion in 2022-23. The deficit fell to $8.2 billion in 2023-24 because total trade fell to $24 billion. TNIE. The hug is done (Newsday). Photo-op over. Time to move on. What about us?