Tuesday, June 25, 2024

The increasing trillions.

"The inward remittances to India in 2023 rose 12.3% to $125 billion, accounting for 3.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP), according to estimates released by the World Bank. In 2022, India's inward remittances stood at $111.22 billion." The World Bank said that "India continues to be the highest recipient of remittances globally, followed by Mexico ($67 billion) and China ($50 billion)." "The current account surplus stood at $5.7 billion, or 0.6% of the GDP, in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24... the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. The current account was in deficit of $8.7 billion, or 1% of GDP, in the previous quarter, and the deficit was $23.2 billion, or 0.7% of GDP, for the full financial year. BS. "India's external debt was contained to $663 billion as of March 2024, up 6% over March 2023," while "the debt service ratio increased to to 6.7% of current receipts at end-March 2024 from 5.3% at end-March 2023, reflecting higher debt service costs." ET. "India's forex reserves contracted by $2.92 billion to $652.9 billion (from a record high of $655.8 billion) as of June 14, RBI data showed." ET. The RBI is to pay a record dividend of Rs 2.1 trillion to the government. The RBI earned such profits from: 1. Interest earned on short-term lending to banks which have a shortage of liquidity, 2. Nearly 4% returns on risk free sovereign securities of developed countries, particularly the $250 billion in US Treasury bills, and 3. Profits from selling dollars at market rates over its buying rate in earlier years. TOI. Sheer genius! Or maybe magic, because: 1. The external debt at $663 billion is more than our foreign exchange reserves of $652.9 billion, 2. The debt service ratio of 6.7% compared to 4% returns on foreign securities means a net outflow, and 3. Profits on selling dollars is purely notional because "Foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms (including valuation effects) increased by US $68 billion during 2023-24 against a decrease of $28.9 billion in the preceding year." RBI. If the RBI net bought foreign exchange at market rates in 2023-24 how did it show such huge profits from sales of foreign exchange? If there is a forensic examination of the RBI's balance sheet will it show a large negative balance? "The RBI's gold reserves stored overseas dropped to 47% of the total by the end of March," as it transferred 100 tonnes of gold from the UK to India. The RBI's gold reserves are at 822.1 tonnes. TOI. Other central banks are apparently doing the same after the US seized Russian reserves due to the Ukraine war. "Central banks storing gold at the Bank of England are charged 3.5 pence per bar per night as storage cost. This would mean, for example, that a foreign central bank storing 100 tonnes of gold at the Bank of England would be charged approximately 102,200 pounds per year as storage charge. Bullionstar. With the RBI saving so much on storing gold maybe they will transfer Rs 3 trillion or even Rs 5 trillion to the government next year. Other central banks should learn.    

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