Friday, June 07, 2024

Just show the basis points.

On 7 June 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, continuing the stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation' due to ongoing food inflation concerns and global uncertainties." Interest rate has been left unchanged 7 times since February 2023. The MPC increased its prediction for the rate of growth of the real GDP from 7% to 7.2% and predicted the rate of inflation at 4.5% for 2024-25. While the RBI is confident of consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.5%, its own survey of households' inflation expectations shows current inflation felt by households fell by 10 basis points ((bps) to 8%. Inflation expectations for 3 months increased by 20 bps and at one year by 10 bps. ET. Why do the media reveal that inflation expectations increased by negligible amounts while hiding the absolute figures? "Two MPC members Ashima Goyal and Jayanth Varma voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and they also wanted to change the stance to neutral." ET. High inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and reducing the value of its debt. Economics Help. "The Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.10 lakh crore (Rs 2.10 trillion)," pib.gov.in. GST collections in May came in at slightly lower at Rs 1.73 trillion. pib.gov.in. Since GST is a percentage of the prices of goods and services, the higher the prices the higher the collections. "Moody's rating agency has highlighted that India's fiscal consolidation pace post-Covid has underperformed compared to its peers, including in the Asia-Pacific region." "India's goal is to reduce its fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP by the end of FY26, from the 5.1% projected for the current year ending March 2025." ET. The RBI has further helped by transferring Rs 2,10,874 crore (Rs 2.11 trillion) of its surplus to the government. This is apparently because high interest rates in the US have increased its earnings from interest on US government Treasuries. ET. In May, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "I expect that inflation will move back down," and so, "I don't think it is likely based on the data we have that the next move that we make will be a rate hike. It's more likely...we hold the policy rate where it is." Reuters. The next meeting of the Fed is on 11-12 June when they will also give a Summary of Economic Projections. FOMC. In January the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that "high inflation is disproportionately hurting low-income households, including Black and Hispanic households and renters." "People experience different inflation rates and different level of inflation stress based on household composition and income, housing tenure and other factors." dallasfed.org. Housing rents have risen by up to 50% in parts of India in the last one year, causing financial distress. India Today. The US Fed cares about the poor, the RBI serves the government. Expectations are revealing. Just show the basis points. 

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