Wednesday, June 19, 2024

The 88% of the 99% aren't growing.

India's "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23. Real GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over the growth rate of 6.7% in 2022-23." pib,gov.in. This is "incredible" and "neck-turning". Mint. But, "For all the pride we can justifiably take in India having become the world's largest economy (and IMF projections of becoming the fourth biggest by 2025 and third by 2027) the reality is that when it comes to per capita income, we are close to the bottom of the global league tables at no.144." "It is a sobering thought that in per capita terms, it is only by 2029 that India is forecast to overtake countries like Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea and Angola." India's share of the global economy is rising. "IMF projections suggest that India will account for 7% of global GDP growth between 2020 and 2029" whereas "In China's case this number is likely to fall from 47.1% in the 2010s to just 18.6% between 2020 and 2029,"wrote Roshan Kishore. Share of the US will be 25.3%. Medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) "contributed 29% to India's GDP in 2021-22 and 45% to its total exports in 2022-23." "Over 99% of MSMEs were micro enterprises" and "Nearly 88% of the respondents in the Global Entrepreneurship Survey 2022-23 indicated that the prime motivations for starting a business was the need to earn a living, given the scarcity of jobs." As a result, "A survey by Paisabazaar showed that 21% of personal loans taken on its platform during January-June 2023 were for travel expenses, and 31% for home renovation." " Millennials and Gen-Zs are quick to borrow to fulfill their aspirations," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Real wages of regular workers in rural areas have declined by 0.6% per annum since 2011-12 while urban wages have declined by 1.2% per annum. "The decline in real earnings from regular employment has led to a situation where the earnings of the bottom quintile of regular workers is no different from the bottom quintile of casual workers. In 2022, both received average  monthly earning of about Rs 3,000 per month or Rs 100 per day," wrote Prof Himanshu. This is totally inadequate for the survival of one person, let alone a family. On food, the spending by the richest 5% is about twice that of the average and about 5% of the spending by the poorest 5%. However, "The average monthly expenditure on non-food items by the richest 5% in rural areas is 3.4 times higher than the average, and 11 times higher than that of the poorest 5%. For urban areas, the difference is even greater, with the richest 5% spending 3.7 times more than average and nearly 15 times higher than the poorest 5%," wrote Auhona Mukherjee. The reason may be, "The food inflation value for CPI (consumer price index) and WPI (wholesale price index) in May 2024 was 8.7% and 7.4% respectively. Non-food inflation in the CPI and WPI series in May stood at just 2.3% and 0.7%," wrote Roshan Kishore. Since the poor are having to spend much more of their earnings on food, they can spend much less than the rich on non-food items. The 88% of the 99%, forced into micro enterprises just to do something, are powering 8.2% growth of GDP. But, are Indians growing?

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