Target the enforcers.

"Bill Maher, American television host, got brutally trolled and fact checked after he on a show claimed Narendra Modi 'lost' election." "Social media users, mostly from India, schooled Bill Maher for spreading fake news and asked him to stick to American issues without knowing the truth about India." TOI. Maher may have said 'lost election' instead of saying 'lost majority' but the world's media were spot on. The Economist UK, June 6, "While the BJP 'prevailed', it no longer has a 'majority in its own right', making Modi 'beholden to his allies'." The Conversation Global, June 6, "Rahul Gandhi's speeches 'highlighted a commitment to protecting the Constitution'; Lalu Prasad Yadav warned BJP intended to 'change the Constitution to end Caste-based affirmative action'; the Samajwadi Party 'fashioned a new, broader caste coalition in Uttar Pradesh'." The Wire. Succinct and absolutely accurate. The problem is that the Indian media has been totally terrorised into submission. "When a journalist becomes spreader of hate and lies, instigator of mob lynching, a cheerleader for the government, [they] become an instrument to kill democracy. When hundreds of news channels repeat the same, they become a weapon to kill humanity. Most of Indian mainstream media is a disgrace to democracy and humanity (The Wire)," said Ravish Kumar, who used to be the Senior Executive Editor of NDTV India (wikipedia). "French journalist Sebastien Farcis' claims he was 'forced to leave' India are incorrect, the external affairs ministry spokesperson said." "Farcis', who is married to an Indian citizen, also holds an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card." "In February, French journalist Vanessa Dougnac left India after the government revoked her Overseas Citizen of India card." News18. "Delhi Lieutenant-Governor VK Saxena's decision to sanction the prosecution of author Arundhati Roy and academic Sheikh Showkat Hussain for speeches made 14 years ago is the first major signal from the new government that its vindictive instincts and habits are still intact." "Trial is unlikely to take place soon and that will mean jail for an indefinite period for the two." DH. In 1997, Arundhati Roy won the Booker Prize for her novel "The God of Small Things", (wikipedia) and is therefore well known outside India. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) provides the Hindu base for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Mr Modi. wikipedia. Following the election results, the Chief of RSS Mohan Bhagwat "noted that an election is not a war, that both sides have point of view to be heard, and that a true sevak (servant) is one who serves with maryada (morality) and without ego." "Today, the RSS must contend with a BJP prime minister who describes himself as God-sent, a non-biological avatar, and a pradhan (chief) sevak who does not tire of speaking of how extraordinary he is." DH. Indians are helpless against a despotic state which cloaks itself in divine righteousness. But foreigners are not. They could target the lower level enforcers which would stop them from traveling outside India. That would make life uncomfortable indeed.  

Let Anglosphere deal with it.

"India on Thursday (yesterday) lodged a strong protest after pro-Khalistani extremists held a 'citizens' court' in front of India's consulate in Vancouver and burnt Prime Minister Narendra Modi's effigy." HT. This is after, "The parliament of Canada on 18 June observed a moment of silence in the House of Commons to mark the one-year anniversary of the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Pro-Khalistani protesters marked the anniversary...by holding a mock murder trial" "On a block of Howe Street cordoned off by police, the mock trial included a jury made up of actors and a judge in a curly white wig, who invited the 'prosecutor' to present evidence of Modi's involvement in the killing in Surrey last year." ET. "Last month, external affairs minister S Jaishankar had said the government gave names of 25 persons for extradition but there had been no response from Trudeau's government." Of course, the more India huffs and puffs, the more they will enjoy performing such stunts. If India has irrefutable evidence it should prove its case in a court of law in Canada. Vijay Mallya left India in 2016 even while there was a non-bailable arrest warrant for him here. wikipedia. On 2 March, "Mallya was a 'special passenger' on board the London- bound Jet Airways flight 9W-122 from Terminal 3 of Indira Gandhi International Airport (Delhi)". He spent 60 minutes in T3's premium lounge and traveled with 11 bags. India Today. In January 2024, "India is to send a team of high-level officials from the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Enforcement Directorate (ED), and the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to the United Kingdom, in a bid to speed up the extradition of Indian fugitives including the likes of diamond trade Nirav Modi and Kingfisher's Vijay Mallya." No one left out of this fantastic junket at taxpayer expense. Hope they took their wives with them. "Public opinion in Canada regarding India has seen a significant decline over the past year." "In 2024, only one-third (33%) of Canadians view India favorably, while a majority (54%) hold an unfavorable opinion." Favorable opinion is down from 56% in 2019 and 44% in 2023. India Today. "While India's resolve to tame anti-India separatists in foreign countries has been spectacularly successful in Pakistan, where, after a surgical strike in 2019, it has reportedly been behind a series of killings of persons responsible for organizing terrorist activities in India, it has faced a string of resistance in the Anglosphere, which has traditionally been a refuge for Khalistani separatists." ET. Of course, "there is no such thing as bad publicity". phrases.org.uk. As a result, Amritpal Singh (31) who positioned himself on lines of Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale...won (the Lok Sabha election) from Khadoor Sahib by a whopping margin of 193,000 votes," and "Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, the son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, won the Faridkot seat by a margin of more than 70,000 votes." DH. Seeing a political opportunity, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) President Sukhbir Singh Badal has opposed the detention of Amritpal Singh under the National Security Act (NSA). TOI. Let Khalistan remain in the Anglosphere. Like Nirav Modi and Vijay Mallya. Don't give it publicity. Don't bring it here.   

The 88% of the 99% aren't growing.

India's "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23. Real GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over the growth rate of 6.7% in 2022-23." pib,gov.in. This is "incredible" and "neck-turning". Mint. But, "For all the pride we can justifiably take in India having become the world's largest economy (and IMF projections of becoming the fourth biggest by 2025 and third by 2027) the reality is that when it comes to per capita income, we are close to the bottom of the global league tables at no.144." "It is a sobering thought that in per capita terms, it is only by 2029 that India is forecast to overtake countries like Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea and Angola." India's share of the global economy is rising. "IMF projections suggest that India will account for 7% of global GDP growth between 2020 and 2029" whereas "In China's case this number is likely to fall from 47.1% in the 2010s to just 18.6% between 2020 and 2029,"wrote Roshan Kishore. Share of the US will be 25.3%. Medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) "contributed 29% to India's GDP in 2021-22 and 45% to its total exports in 2022-23." "Over 99% of MSMEs were micro enterprises" and "Nearly 88% of the respondents in the Global Entrepreneurship Survey 2022-23 indicated that the prime motivations for starting a business was the need to earn a living, given the scarcity of jobs." As a result, "A survey by Paisabazaar showed that 21% of personal loans taken on its platform during January-June 2023 were for travel expenses, and 31% for home renovation." " Millennials and Gen-Zs are quick to borrow to fulfill their aspirations," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Real wages of regular workers in rural areas have declined by 0.6% per annum since 2011-12 while urban wages have declined by 1.2% per annum. "The decline in real earnings from regular employment has led to a situation where the earnings of the bottom quintile of regular workers is no different from the bottom quintile of casual workers. In 2022, both received average  monthly earning of about Rs 3,000 per month or Rs 100 per day," wrote Prof Himanshu. This is totally inadequate for the survival of one person, let alone a family. On food, the spending by the richest 5% is about twice that of the average and about 5% of the spending by the poorest 5%. However, "The average monthly expenditure on non-food items by the richest 5% in rural areas is 3.4 times higher than the average, and 11 times higher than that of the poorest 5%. For urban areas, the difference is even greater, with the richest 5% spending 3.7 times more than average and nearly 15 times higher than the poorest 5%," wrote Auhona Mukherjee. The reason may be, "The food inflation value for CPI (consumer price index) and WPI (wholesale price index) in May 2024 was 8.7% and 7.4% respectively. Non-food inflation in the CPI and WPI series in May stood at just 2.3% and 0.7%," wrote Roshan Kishore. Since the poor are having to spend much more of their earnings on food, they can spend much less than the rich on non-food items. The 88% of the 99%, forced into micro enterprises just to do something, are powering 8.2% growth of GDP. But, are Indians growing?

Safe, for now.

"President Joe Biden has announced a new policy that would protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation, according to administration officials." "Polls show that immigration is a primary concern for many voters ahead of the presidential poll in November." BBC. "President Biden graduated from the University of Delaware and Syracuse Law School and served on New Castle County Council. At age 29, President Biden became one of the youngest Americans ever elected to the United States Senate." He was a Senator for 36 years and then Vice President to Barack Obama from 2009 to 2016. whitehouse.gov. Thus, Biden has been in politics his entire working life and has never done anything honest or productive. He will do anything to hang on. "In a viral video, former President Barack Obama was seen guiding Joe Biden off the stage at a Los Angeles fundraiser after the president appeared to freeze up. The incident took place after Biden and Obama appeared in a 45-minute interview with late-night host Jimmy Kimmel at the Peacock Theater." HT. "An alleged multistate human trafficking ring forcing immigrant women into prostitution. The mysterious killing of a former police officer in South Florida. Attacks against police officers in New York. The arrest of a drug dealer in Chicago. Local and federal officials say these apparently unrelated crimes have a common denominator: Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal gang that originated in a Venezuela prison" and "They say it's now operating in the United States." CNN. The US government has levied sanctions against Venezuela and has probably appropriated its money under Executive Order 13884 which "blocks the property of the Government of Venezuela", and Executive Order 13857 includes "any political subdivision, agency, or instrumentality thereof, including the Central Bank." state.gov. As plunder goes, this is pretty comprehensive. "The United States is merrily chipping away at the pillars that hold up the dollar as the world's reserve currency." "The country has radically increased the use of sanctions as a punitive foreign policy tool. And it is adding on an immense amount of debt, leaving hapless foreigners who seek the safety and depth of its markets to fund its excesses." Still, "A recent survey, for example, shows central bank reserve managers plan to increase their dollar holdings over the next 12-24 months." Reuters. "But times have changed with new buyers, such as China and India seeking to buy oil in their own currencies." However, "China holds nearly 10 times as much dollar reserves as Saudi Arabia, and it has not been able to make a serious dent on the dollar's role as a reserve currency." "The oil trade is done in dollars because it keeps things simple. India's experience with buying Russian oil in local currency is a case in point." Perhaps, the actual strength of the US comes from NATO which has 30 European and 2 North American members. wikipedia. As long as the others feel safe under the US security umbrella provided by NATO the dollar will be secure. The rest of the world is not united. Mao Zedong understood that "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun". wikipedia. The US, plus NATO, has the biggest gun. By far.      

Post-G7 Melodi.

At the G7 Summit, "Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni on Saturday (15 May) posted a video on X standing with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and saying, 'Hello from the Melodi team.' PM Modi can be heard laughing loudly in the video." HT. The period of peace and goodwill is over. "Indian national Nikhil Gupta, who is suspected by the US of involvement in an unsuccessful plot to kill Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil, has been extradited from the Czech Republic, media reports said on Sunday (16 June)." ET. "Federal prosecutors allege that Gupta hired a hitman to kill Pannun and paid USD 15,000 in advance. They allege that an unnamed Indian government official was involved in it." "India has rejected any involvement in the case and has launched an investigation into the allegation." In April the Washington Post named the involved official as Vikram Yadav and alleged that former chief of RAW Samant Goel, among other top officials in the Indian government, was also involved in the plot. TOI. The Indian government dismissed the report as "speculative and irresponsible". Despite vehement denials, "An intelligence operative has been removed from his position and several others were reshuffled following an investigation into US claims." HT. The investigation apparently found that "rogue operatives not authorized by the government had been involved in the plot" (ET), but the US expects these officials to be prosecuted. Assuming this official had gone rogue, "it is clear that he had to have been part of a band of rogue operatives since he shared footage of the bullet-ridden corpse of another Khalistani activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, that had been taken (presumably by the assassins) right after he was shot and killed on June 18, 2023." "Even assuming the National Security Adviser was in the dark about the Pannun plot, we know that a senior CIA official alerted him to it in August 2023. If the killing of Nijjar itself did not prompt an urgent internal investigation, the plot to kill Pannun ought to have rung alarm bells." The Wire. Attorney General Merrick Garland said "the Justice Department will not tolerate attempts to silence or harm American citizens," and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco called the plot a "brazen attempt to silence a political activist for exercising his freedom of speech". HT. It is immaterial that Garland was interviewed twice and rejected both times by Barack Obama, for a vacancy in the US Supreme Court, who nominated Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan instead. The Republicans blocked Garland's nomination when Obama picked him in 2016, right at the end of his second term, which is why Garland is extremely bitter, vindictive and dangerous. "A group of powerful Democratic senators on Monday (yesterday) sought a strong diplomatic response from the Biden administration to the allegations of the Indian government's involvement in a foiled plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on US soil." BS. This gives new meaning to "Canadian PM Justin Trudeau on Saturday (at G7) talked about a shared commitment between India and Canada in the future to tackle crucial concerns." TOI. Crucial for Canada, perhaps. After all, Indian students in Canada's Prince Edward Island are ready to go on hunger strike so as not to have to return to India. India Today. Canadians do not need India. Bad things, they say, come in threes. (wiktionary). We can see only two. 

It's all informal.

"Informal manufacturing and service sectors grew faster than the informal trade sector in 2022-23, data released by the government showed" ET. "The gross value added (GVA) of unincorporated manufacturing companies increased by 19.14% to Rs 3.6 trillion" in October-September 2022-23 compared with Rs 2.77 trillion in April-March 2021-22. GVA of the services sector increased by 18.9% during the same period. Jobs increased by 6.3% in the informal manufacturing sector and by 13.4% in the services sector. However, "Emolument per worker declined 1.1% in 2022-23," as "Formal workers' compensation went down 1.2%, whereas informal workers compensation increased 4.3% during this period." "90% of India's workforce belong to the informal sector who contribute more than half of the country's GDP. Informality leads to precarity." "A workforce facing such precarity is less productive," wrote Rajendran Narayanan. Obviously, if 90% of the workforce is contributing 50% of GDP the other 10% in the formal sector is contributing the remaining 50%, that is 9 times more. A 1.2% fall in compensation of this 10% resulted in 1.1% decline in average earning per worker despite a 4.3% increase in the wages of the 90%. Shows the astronomical inequality between formal and informal workers. No wonder 86% of employees in India admit they are struggling or suffering and 35% feel daily anger, according to Gallup 2024 report. ET. "India is slowly becoming the hub for Global Capability Centers (GCCs) which Western companies set up offshore to access specialized high-skill talent, catalyze growth and innovation, and ensure business continuity in the wake of macro-environmental shocks." ET. On the other hand, "TCS (Tata Consulting Services) is grappling with a significant challenge as it struggles to fill 80,000 open position due to a notable skills gap." ET. "Indian startups have laid off about 10,000 employees so far in 2024 with funding across stages continuing to be constrained." Around 21,000 lost their jobs in the first half of 2023 and 15,000 in the second half. ET. Only 10,000 this year, a big improvement. However, there is a ray of optimism. According to the Foundit Insights Tracker "the overall hiring index increased from 265 in May 2023 to 295 in May 2024", an increase of 11%. ET. "Escalating tensions with China are said to have cost Indian electronics manufacturers $15 billion in production losses as well as 100,000 jobs in the past four years." That's because "4,000-5,000 visa applications for Chinese executives are currently awaiting government go-ahead". ET. Whereas, "Union steel and heavy industries minister HD Kumaraswamy of JD(S) wondered aloud if India needed investments like US-headquartered semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology setting up a $2.5 billion unit in Gujarat and potentially receiving Rs 3.2 crore in subsidies for every job it creates." TOI. Americans are too expensive. Handover our businesses to the Chinese. 90% of our workers won't know the difference.

No unemployment, no inequality.

"Finance Commission Chairman Arvind Panagariya believes India's main challenge isn't creating jobs but reallocating capital to more labor intensive sectors. Too much capital is tied up in industries that don't hire many workers, he said." ET. Those who are not hired are unemployed. Perhaps, Prof Panagariya should ask them. "Post-2013, the rate of non-farm job creation plummeted sharply, resulting in a surge in the overall unemployment rate. The youth unemployment rate tripled from 6% to 17.8% between 2012 and 2018." Among those who are employed," A mere 14% of Indian employees consider themselves to be 'thriving' in life, while the rest acknowledge they are either 'struggling' or 'suffering', according to the Gallup 2024 State of Global Workplace Report. This finding is notably lower compared to the global average of 34% of employees who feel they are 'thriving." ET. The reason why employees are unhappy may be linked to the enormous gap between what they earn and the CEOs of the companies. "The average salary of a CEO in India stood at Rs 138 million which is an increase of 40% compared to pre-Covid times. Of this remuneration, more than half is linked to short-term and long-term incentives, Deloitte India Executive Performance and Rewards Survey 2024 noted." HT. On the other hand, "As per the Glassdoor data, the monthly salary provided to an Indian citizen ranges between Rs 8,000 to Rs 1,43,000, with the annual average base pay amounting to Rs 9,45,489." cleartax.in. So, average CEO salary is at least 138 times the wages of an average worker. "Jayadev Galla, CMD of Amara Raja Batteries, took home over Rs 520 million as compensation in FY23. That was about 1,872 times the median salary of the company's employees." CEOs at JSW Steel, Hero MotoCorp and Hindalco earn 500-800 times their median employee remuneration. ET. According to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES), inequality has declined in India from 2011-12 to 2022-23 as "The Gini coefficient, a statistical measure of inequality in the population, shows a decline, from 0.283 to 0.266 for the rural sector and from 0.363 to 0.314 for the urban sector across the country." TOI. The Gini index "ranges from 0 (or 0%) to 1 (or 100%), with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality." Investopedia. Even "Consumption spending in marginalized groups such as Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes rose a percentage point faster every year compared with the other groups, indicating a decline in consumption inequity between upper and lower castes in the country since 2011-12, official data showed." ET. As per the HCES, the richest 5% spend 4.9 times more on food than the poorest 5% in rural areas and 6.1 times in urban areas. However, non-food spending by the richest 5% in rural areas is 11 times higher than the poorest 5%, while in urban areas, the richest 5% spent 15 times more than the poorest 5%. HT. Unemployment is not a problem, just that there are no jobs, said Prof Panagariya. That's why he is a professor.      

AI not for all.

On the second and final day of their summit, the G7 leaders' communique expressed "their solidarity with Ukraine, support for a deal that would lead to the immediate cease-fire and release of hostages in Gaza, investment in sustainable infrastructure in Africa and commitments to address climate change and migration." BS. "Indian refiners imported 1.78 million barrels a day (mb/d) of crude oil from Russia in April, up 19% from March, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa." "Russia supplied more oil to India than its next three top suppliers - Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE - put together in April." ET. The G7 committed to "deepening our cooperation to harness the benefits and manage the risks of Artificial Intelligence...and develop a brand to support the implementation of the International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI Systems." whitehouse.gov. In March, "Advanced Micro Devices has hit a US government roadblock in its efforts to sell an AI chip tailored for the Chinese market, as Washington cracks down on the export of advanced technologies to Beijing, Bloomberg News reported." Reuters. "Talking on India's AI mission premised on 'AI for All', the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi) emphasized that this technology should be aimed at fostering progress and well-being for all." ET. "The world community must end the monopoly in technology and ensure its access for all to lay the foundation of an inclusive society and help eliminate social inequalities, PM Modi said." ABP. On 14 June, Nvidia's market capitalization (MC) rose to a record $3.44 trillion. ycharts.com. Apple's MC rose to $3.258 trillion after announcing its push into AI (CNBC). Microsoft closed the week at MC of $3.289 trillion, while that of Alphabet, formerly Google's, MC was $2.204. ycharts.com. In 2023, "Microsoft Corp...bundled the technology behind ChatGPT with its Power Platform that allows users to develop applications with little or no coding, the latest integration of artificial intelligence into its products." Reuters. Together those four companies have a market cap of $12.191 trillion, which is more than 3 times India's GDP at $3.385 trillion (worldometer). They are very unlikely to give up their monopoly on technology. At his anticipated meeting with Mr Modi, US President Biden committed to "discussing important issues, including concerns over the foiled Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun's murder plot, at high levels with India." ET. Can't go any higher than Mr Modi. Mr Modi also met Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who has accused India of killing Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. India Today. India accuses Canada of "providing criminal and secessionist elements a safe haven in Canada after a parade in Ontario's Malton displayed pro-Khalistan sentiments." BS. Problem is that Trudeau can point to the recent election of Khalistani hardliner Amritpal Singh to the Lok Sabha from Khadur Sahib in Punjab with a record winning margin of 193 thousand votes and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa from Faridkot. Sarabjeet is the son of Indira Gandhi assassin Beant Singh. DH. The old saying about pointing a finger with three fingers pointing back. Forbes. Embarrassing.

One among twelve.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi will depart for Italy on Thursday (13 June) to participate in the 50th G7 Summit, which is scheduled to be held on June 13 and 14. This will be his first rip abroad after assuming the prime minister's office for the third straight term." Mint. The same night Mr Modi touched down at Brindisi Airport in Apulia, Italy where he was received by India's Ambassador to Italy Vani Rao and other officials. TOI. "Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will join at least 12 other heads of state and government invited by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni" to take part in the summit including India, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Algeria, Kenya and Mauritania. Reuters. "India has overtaken four G7 nations - UK, France, Italy and Canada - to become the world's third-largest economy," and "PM has the opportunity to highlight India's achievements in health, housing, education, and sanitation," wrote Sujan Chinoy. In May 2023, India achieved a significant milestone when 50% of villages declared themselves to be ODF (open defecation free) Plus under Swachh Bharat Mission Grameen Phase II. pib.gov.in. This is great but not something to boast about, surely? India's GDP at current prices was $2.41 trillion in 2022  (World Bank), while that of Canada in 2022 was $2.161 trillion (World Bank). And yet, Canada is a member of the G7 group, along with France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, plus the European Union, and India is invited with Argentina, Algeria and Mauritania. That is because India's gross national income (GNI) per capita was $2,390 in 2022 (macrotrends) while that of Canada was $53,310 in the same year (macrotrends). In September 2023, "Canadian Prime Minister said his nation's security agencies have actively pursued credible allegations of a potential link between the India government and the June murder of a Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Canada." Reuters. India angrily dismissed that as, "Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar has criticized the Justin Trudeau-led government in Canada for issuing visas to people with links to organised crimes for 'political purposes' despite warnings from the Indian government." Mint. Organised crime groups would include the Sinaloa Cartel (wikipedia), the Ndrangheta (wikipedia) and Chinese Triads (Britannica). Are we accusing Canada of sheltering those people as well? "A recent special report from a high-level Canadian parliamentary committee has labeled India as the 'second-biggest foreign threat' to Canada's democracy. The report named China as the number-one threat." India Today. "India has taken a definitive stance" in the killing of Nijjar, "declaring that it will not assist Canadian investigators until concrete evidence is provided by Ottawa." ET. "Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) director David Vigneault traveled to New Delhi in February and March - before Canada announced the arrest of four Indian nationals in connection with Nijjar's killing," and "Canada provided intercepted communications." HT. On the other hand, "Twenty-eight ministers in the third Narendra Modi government have criminal cases against them with 19 of them facing serious charges such as attempted murder, crimes against women and hate speech, poll rights body Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) said." ET. Let us not talk about organised crimes. Enjoy the weather in Apulia (yr.no).One among twelve.

Americans have expectations.

"According to the US Labor department, prices rose 3.3% in the year to the end of May, down 0.1 percentage points from the month before. Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items like food and energy prices, also slowed despite rents continuing to weigh on household budgets." "The US central bank held its target rate at 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday (yesterday)." BBC. "Stock markets surged Wednesday after data showed inflation slowed in May, raising hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year." HT. "The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a single quarter-percentage-point for the year amid rising estimates for what it will take to keep inflation in check." "Recent progress has been slow, and Fed officials now project a slightly higher end-of-year inflation of 2.6% versus the 2.4% anticipated as of March." "India's retail inflation eased further to a 12-month low of 4.75% in May but food inflation remained elevated and almost unchanged at 8.69%, data released on Wednesday showed." ET. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not wait for the figures, having decided to hold its policy rate at 6.5% in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 7 June. The RBI "left its inflation forecast for this fiscal year unchanged at 4.5%." ET. In the US, "Median inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon declined slightly to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent, remained unchanged at the three-year-ahead horizon at 2.8 percent,...according to the May survey of Consumer Expectations." newyorkfed. org. In India, the RBI "released the results of May 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households," which showed that households are experiencing consumer price (CPI) inflation at 8%, median inflation expectations at 3 months is 9.2% and at one year is 9.9%. m.rbi.org.in. Thus, the US Fed is projecting inflation at 2.6% this year while Americans expect it to be 3.2%, a difference of 0.6%, whereas the RBI projected inflation at 4.5% while Indians expect it to be more than double at 9.9%. Why this huge difference? "The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk to around $7.5 trillion from about $9 trillion during 2022," because the Fed "has shed roughly $1.5 trillion in treasury and mortgage bonds that it accumulated during the Covid years when it was trying to stimulate the economy." "In contrast, the RBI's balance sheet has increased 11% in 2023-24 from Rs 63.45 trillion to Rs 70.48 trillion." The RBI's balance sheet has grown because "of it pursuing two conflicting objectives - trying to withdraw liquidity and at the same time attempting to shore up the rupee." Hence "monetary policy had to take a back seat to the bank's other objective of keeping the exchange rate of the rupee within an internally pre-determined band." This is the impossible trinity, wrote NR Bhusnurmath. Loose monetary policy means a higher inflation rate and that erodes the buying power of the rupee vs the dollar. Which, in turn, will increase prices of imports, including oil. The Fed is straightforward. The RBI is too clever. So, Indians have learnt not to expect anything. 

Britain won't matter.

"Far-right parties have made major gains in the European Parliament election that concluded on Sunday (09 June), with the domination of Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France prompting President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the parliament and call national legislative elections on June 30 a month before the Paris Olympics. The surge of nationalist and populist parties, which lead governments in Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy and are part of ruling coalitions in Sweden and Finland, will make legislation on issues such as climate change and agricultural policy harder." HT. "Alexander De Croo, the Prime Minister of Belgium, has resigned following his party's crushing loss...in national and parliamentary elections, according to CNN." HT. "The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) shrugged off a string of scandals to take second place in... EU's election, making gains in particular among the young, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats scored their worst result ever." Reuters. "French President Emmanuel Macron saw his party fall into second place in European Parliament elections in France on Sunday, with the two far-right parties together taking close to 40% of the vote." "Announcing a snap national election for the end of June, Macron has set up a showdown between his pro-European, centrist and pro-Ukrainian ideals and the anti-immigration, populist and hard-line law-and-order rhetoric of the far right." CNN. It is not a personal risk for Macron, whose second term as president ends in 2027, and who will be ineligible to run again after two terms. wikipedia. In this surge to the right, "Pro-European centrist parties performed well overall in central and eastern Europe," as "In Poland, the European Union's largest eastern member, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Coalition (KO) was set to win," and "In Hungary, Prime Minister Victor Orban's nationalist Fidesz party came first but posted its worst result in a national or EU election in nearly two decades, as support surged for the pro-European Tisza partty, which is led by political newcomer Peter Magyar." The leftists won in Romania, liberals in Slovakia and a populist party in the Czech Republic. Reuters. Indications are that Britain will shift to the left as "Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for an early general election in the UK to be held on July 4th, 2024." TOI. "Britain's main opposition Labour Party is set for its biggest victory in next month's general election," with 422 seats in the House of Commons while Sunak's Conservatives will be reduced to just 140 seats. Reuters. The Labour Party has accused Sunak of being too rich and hence out of touch with the people. Reuters. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is worth 7.7 million pounds but could be worth double that. Prolific London. That is not exactly Dickensian is it? Sunak is of Indian descent and a Hindu. Someone who would qualify to be one of "A beastly people with a beastly religion. (Shashi Tharoor)." Britain will be lurching to the left, even as Europe swings to the right. But it is irrelevant. Because of Brexit.  

Supplicants get nothing.

Since the BJP, won only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, (wikipedia), "Many had expected that the BJP's allies would extract their pound of flesh by cornering core ministries," but "Most of the allies have got non-core ministries." ET. In short, a stiff middle finger. With 272 needed for majority, the TDP with 16 seats and the JD(U) with 12, took the NDA to 268 seats, and smaller parties chipped in with another 25 seats to take the total to 293. But the TDP and JD(U) got just one cabinet post each, exactly the same number as JD(S), HAM and LJP(RV), who also got one seat each. TOI. Thus, the TDP and JD(U) have been humbled and Mr Modi has shown that he is the boss. Be happy with crumbs. "With the new government depending on the support of N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Dasam (TDP) and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], it will be difficult for the Narendra Modi-led NDA government to shrug off" the demand for 'special category status' for Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. "States that come under special category status get preferential treatment in getting central assistance and tax breaks." DH. However, after eating humble pie over cabinet posts, it is extremely unlikely that Messrs Naidu and Nitish Kumar will get anything at all. What can you expect of a party that strongly associates itself with Hindutva (wikipedia), but then abuses Hindus, as BJP supporters are doing? The BJP lost its seat in Faizabad, which contains the city of Ayodhya with the newly inaugurated Ram Mandir. India Today. Not just Ayodhya, "In Allahabad parliamentary seat, Congress candidate Ujjwal Raman Singh defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Tripathi by a margin of 58,000 votes." TOI. Allahabad is the site of the Triveni Sangam which is the confluence of the holy rivers Ganga, Jamuna and the legendary Saraswati. wikipedia. "The hatemongers of the BJP are not just condemning the people of Ayodhya; they are cursing them, especially the Hindus." "Allahabad was renamed Prayagraj" "But, like the people of Ayodhya, the people of Prayagraj also betrayed the BJP. There, too, the BJP was defeated." Quint. Perhaps, the legion of mindless fanatics, known as 'Bhakts' (DH), should reflect that BJP's defeats could be because Lord Ram was not pleased with the cynical inauguration of his temple for electoral gain. All four Shankaracharyas, who are heads of monasteries, boycotted the inauguration ceremony of the Ram Temple because traditions were not followed and the temple was not complete. Mint. If Lord Ram is displeased more misfortune may befall the BJP. But then, Mr Modi claims to be of divine origin (The Wire), so perhaps he can sort it out personally with Lord Ram. BJP's allies should be content. Crumbs are divine.   

Forced hikikomori.

"Japan faces a daunting demographic challenge," as "In a nation of 123.9 million, a mere 727,277 births were recorded last year," with a fertility rate "now standing at 1.20, down from 1.26." TOI. "In 2023, the country recorded 1.57 million deaths, according to the Health Ministry - more than double the number of births." And, "The number of marriages fell by 30,000 last year, while the number of divorces rose." The government has launched "initiatives such as expanding child care facilities, offering housing subsidies to parents, and in some towns, even paying couples to have children." The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has introduced an AI-based matchmaking app. CNN. "China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023," as "The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 2.08 million, or 0.15%, to 1,409 billion in 2023." The birth rate was at a record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, while "Japan's birth rate was 6.3 per 1,000 people in 2022, while South Korea's rate was 4.9." Reuters. 'Hikikomori' is "a Japanese term for people who cut themselves off from society, sometimes for months or years - often Gen Z and Millennials in the prime of their youth. The phenomenon first emerged in Asia, and is particularly well-documented in Japan - but similar stories are surfacing in other parts of the world including the United States, Spain and France." "It's not clear how many hikikomori there are worldwide, but more than 1.5 million are estimated to live in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea." CNN. In India, the massive rise in the number of tourists in the Himalayas is causing traffic jams. "The region's delicate ecosystem is under threat due to increased pollution and waste management challenges as heaps of plastic garbage can be seen at every nook and corner of all the hill stations. We are aware that even organic waste cannot be recycled naturally due to weather conditions." Ten million pilgrims visited the holy temple of Kedarnath on 10 May. "This surge led not only to severe logistical strain but also raised raised health and safety concerns." News18. India's "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY2022-23." pib.gov.in. "Over half of India's 1.4 billion people are aged under 30, according to government health figures." "The International Labour Organization estimates 29% of India's young university graduates were unemployed in 2022. The rate is nearly nine times higher than for those without a diploma, who typically find work in low-paid service or construction jobs." ET. "Unemployment is not a new story." "But in village unto village across Maharashtra's countryside, a supposedly prosperous state, unemployment and agrarian crisis are spurring a ravaging, if unacknowledged and far-reaching, social consequence. Educated and jobless men with family farms their only source of income are unable to find suitable brides for themselves," wrote Jaideep Hardikar. No jobs, no brides, ashamed of going to parties - the Indian version of hikikomori. The only difference is it is forced. So, no escape.

Divine purpose.

Skulduggery has started, it's always been the strategy. "As the buzz about allies seeking to secure a higher share of berths and high-profile portfolios in Modi 3.0 government persisted on Saturday (08 June), there were indications of the BJP leadership asking NDA partners to 'pare down' their demands to 'reasonable limits' while assuring that unfulfilled desires may be given due consideration at an appropriate time later." TOI. How much later? After all, "In the long run we are all dead." Keynes. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to be sworn in for his third consecutive term on June 8 after 21 allies gave him their written support in a meeting on Wednesday (05 June)." TNIE. Weren't they insulted that the BJP doesn't trust them? Having committed themselves, "Prominent allies on Friday (07 June) proposed the name of Bharatiya Janata Party's Narendra Modi as leader of the NDA Parliamentary Party, paving the way for him to become the Prime Minister of India for the third consecutive term." ET. Now they can make no demands and the BJP will poach their MPs by giving them useless cabinet posts until these allies are assimilated into the BJP. "A look at the trajectory of regional allies like Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Shiv Sena, Naga People's Front (NPF), since the time they allied with the Modi-era BJP can help understand the strategy better. These regional parties once ruled their respective states - Assam, Maharashtra, Nagaland." The Wire. "As many as 251 (46%) of the 543 elected Lok Sabha members have criminal cases registered against them and 27 of them have been convicted, according to an analysis by poll rights body Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR). This is the highest number of candidates facing criminal charges to be elected to the Lower House." Charges include rape, murder, attempt to murder, kidnapping and crimes against women. 39% of the BJP's MPs and 50% of TBP's MPs have charges against them. "Birds of the same feather" (wikipedia), as it were. "When my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God has sent me." "I believe God has given me abilities, inspiration and good intentions for a purpose..." "That's why, whenever I do anything, I believe God is guiding me." The Wire. BJP MP and trained surgeon, Dr Sambit Patra (wikipedia) claimed that "Lord Jagannath is bhakt (devotee) of Modi" (TOI). Delusions of divine purpose are dangerous. Any act can be attributed to God's command. On 20 March 1995, 13 people were killed and 54 seriously injured by sarin gas in Tokyo subway, released by members of Aum Shinriyo cult led by Shoko Asohara, who believed he was born to take the world's sins on himself. wikipedia. On 19 April 1993, 79 Branch Davidians, including 21 children under the age of 16, were burnt to death at Waco, Texas in the US. The cult was led by David Koresh who claimed to be chosen by God and having the gift of prophecy. wikipedia. However, Asohara and Koresh were leaders of cults with limited number of followers, not leaders of nations. God's representative with power over nuclear weapons is completely different. The world beware. 

Just show the basis points.

On 7 June 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, continuing the stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation' due to ongoing food inflation concerns and global uncertainties." Interest rate has been left unchanged 7 times since February 2023. The MPC increased its prediction for the rate of growth of the real GDP from 7% to 7.2% and predicted the rate of inflation at 4.5% for 2024-25. While the RBI is confident of consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.5%, its own survey of households' inflation expectations shows current inflation felt by households fell by 10 basis points ((bps) to 8%. Inflation expectations for 3 months increased by 20 bps and at one year by 10 bps. ET. Why do the media reveal that inflation expectations increased by negligible amounts while hiding the absolute figures? "Two MPC members Ashima Goyal and Jayanth Varma voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and they also wanted to change the stance to neutral." ET. High inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and reducing the value of its debt. Economics Help. "The Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.10 lakh crore (Rs 2.10 trillion)," pib.gov.in. GST collections in May came in at slightly lower at Rs 1.73 trillion. pib.gov.in. Since GST is a percentage of the prices of goods and services, the higher the prices the higher the collections. "Moody's rating agency has highlighted that India's fiscal consolidation pace post-Covid has underperformed compared to its peers, including in the Asia-Pacific region." "India's goal is to reduce its fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP by the end of FY26, from the 5.1% projected for the current year ending March 2025." ET. The RBI has further helped by transferring Rs 2,10,874 crore (Rs 2.11 trillion) of its surplus to the government. This is apparently because high interest rates in the US have increased its earnings from interest on US government Treasuries. ET. In May, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "I expect that inflation will move back down," and so, "I don't think it is likely based on the data we have that the next move that we make will be a rate hike. It's more likely...we hold the policy rate where it is." Reuters. The next meeting of the Fed is on 11-12 June when they will also give a Summary of Economic Projections. FOMC. In January the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that "high inflation is disproportionately hurting low-income households, including Black and Hispanic households and renters." "People experience different inflation rates and different level of inflation stress based on household composition and income, housing tenure and other factors." dallasfed.org. Housing rents have risen by up to 50% in parts of India in the last one year, causing financial distress. India Today. The US Fed cares about the poor, the RBI serves the government. Expectations are revealing. Just show the basis points. 

They could be swallowed.

Following my blog "Ayodhya Falls" on Wednesday, 5 June, " As the yawning gap between exit poll predictions and the actual election results led to huge losses in the stock market on Tuesday, Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale has asked Sebi to investigate whether BJP and poll agencies made crores by manipulating the stock markets via pollsters." "In his letter to Sebi chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch, he has also asked the regulator to investigate if there are entities that booked profits through selling on 3rd June and made even more profits on 4th June by short selling." ET. The elections took place in seven phases. from Friday, 19 April to Saturday, 1 June 2024. ECI. In the first phase, voting started at 7 AM and ended at 6 PM except in certain areas for security reasons. Mint. In the seventh phase on Saturday, 1 June voting hours were also between 7 AM and 6 PM. HT. Since the elections dragged on for 6 weeks all media channels would have had the exit poll figures tabulated and added up. All they had to do was to add the figures for the final day and release their predictions as soon as voting ended. But, exit polls were not released till much later and all predicted a sweep for the BJP-led NDA with over 350 seats. "The Republic TV-P Marq poll claimed that the ruling alliance will win up to 359 seats and the opposition INDIA bloc will bag 154 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha." HT. As if they had been told. However, the BJP won 240 seats, well short of 272 required for absolute majority, and have to depend on support from Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) which won 16 seats and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (U) party which got 12 seats. NDTV. "Amid speculation that Naidu and Nitish Kumar might be courted by the Opposition INDIA bloc, comprising parties that garnered 232 seats, the BJP has proactively secured written assurances of support from the TDP and JD leaders." BS. Apparently, Messrs Naidu and Nitish Kumar could demand key ministerial posts in return for their support. The Week. They must be careful because they will return to their respective states while their MPs will remain in Delhi as prey for the BJP. The BJP has an unsavory record of stealing votes from their alliance partners, weakening them in their states and then discarding them as scrap. "A look at the trajectory of regional entities like the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Shiv Sena, Naga People's Front (NPF), since the time they allied with the Modi-era BJP can help understand the strategy better. These regional parties once ruled their respective states - Assam, Maharashtra, Nagaland." The Wire. In Surat, Gujarat, other candidates mysteriously withdrew their nomination, leaving the BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal elected unopposed. In Indore, opposition candidates "were coerced and otherwise 'persuaded' to leave the fray". NOTA (None Of The Above) came second with 2,18,674 votes. The Wire. This was a humiliating insult to the BJP. But, they do not care they won dirty. Nor will the ones who made fortunes by gaming the markets. Those who are supporting need to beware. They could be swallowed.   

Global confusion.

In Europe, "Consumer prices rose 2.6% from a year ago, up from 2.4% in April, according to Eurostat." "Britain's richest households are experiencing higher rates of inflation than poorer segments of society because of high mortgage costs and rapid price increases in restaurants and hotels." "Companies transporting goods from Asia face costs of as much as $10,000 for an urgent full-size shipping container over the next month - about double current rates." ET. Standard & Poor (S&P) "cut France's long-term sovereign debt rating...to 'AA-' from 'AA', citing expectations that higher than expected deficits would push up debt in the euro zone's second biggest economy." Analysts said that the "downgrade could push the spread between French and German benchmark bonds by 3-5 basis points (bps)." That would have a minor economic impact but could add pressure on President Emmanuel Macron to rein in the fiscal deficit. Reuters. In China, "When Ou Yangyun traveled to the Chinese city of Zhengzhou in February to demand recompense after his bank account containing tens of thousands of dollars was frozen, his family expected him to be home two days later" but "The small-business owner from Changsha never returned." Instead. the protesters were arrested, served mouldy food and deprived of sleep. Most were released after a few days but "Ou and two other defrauded depositors are still being held by Zhengzhou police." Reuters. "Lawyers across China are up in arms over what they say is 'blatant sabotage' of the legal system" "after advocates at the Tianjun county court in Haixi Mongol caught the presiding judge red-handed receiving real-time instructions on WeChat group." WION. Must have been a case between individuals or else they would be eating mouldy bread in prison. "China's leaders are 'bizarrely unwilling' to use more government spending to support consumer demand instead of production, according to Nobel Laureate in economics Paul Krugman." "The comments came amid renewed concern in the US and Europe over what is viewed as Chinese overproduction and the dumping of heavily subsidized products overseas." ET. "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has warned China not to cross a red line in the South China Sea, where a standoff between the countries continues to escalate. BBC. China believes in 'wolf-warrior diplomacy' (wikipedia), a bare-knuckle fight  instead of polite civilized conversation. So, "China has launched an anti-dumping probe into imports of a widely used plastic from the US, EU, Taiwan and Japan." "Less than a week ago, Washington sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods including electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels and computer chips.The new US moves also expanded on sweeping border taxes that were imposed on Chinese goods under the Trump administration." BBC. Can the US and EU control inflation while increasing tariffs on imports? Can the Chinese Communist Party fight its citizens and other nations at the same time? Do all of them know what they are doing? Fortunately, it doesn't matter to us in India. Our economy is growing 8.2% (ET) by itself. 

Ayodhya lost.

 "Narendra Modi is set to take oath as prime minister of the country for the record third term as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a majority by winning 292 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha," while "the Congress-led INDIA bloc emerged as a strong opposition and registered wins in 234 seats." News18. On its own, the BJP secured 240 seats, well short of the 272 seats required for an absolute majority, while the Congress got 99 seats. The NDA is an alliance of 41 parties, some of them tiny regional parties (wikipedia) which most of us have not heard of. Most of them have lost. The Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is an alliance of 42 parties (wikipedia) in which the Congress got 99 seats, DMK 22 seats, Trinamool Congress (AITC) 29 seats and Samajwadi Party (SP) 37 seats. The big news is that SP won 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) beating the BJP into second place with 33 seats. Mint. In 2022, the BJP won the assembly election in UP with 255 seats to 111 seats for the SP  (wikipedia), and Yogi Adityanath, who revels in the nickname of 'Bulldozer Baba' because of his use of bulldozers to demolish homes of people accused of crime (wikipedia), was re-elected as Chief Minister. In January 2024, "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has inaugurated a grand temple to Hindu God Ram in the flashpoint city of Ayodhya." "Televised live, it showed Mr Modi performing religious rituals inside the temple's sanctum along with priests and Mohan Bhagwat, head of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) - the ideological fountainhead of Hindu nationalist parties." BBC. However, it seems that Lord Ram was not best pleased at being used as an election gimmick because "BJP candidate Lallu Singh lost Faizabad Lok Sabha seat which includes Ayodhya where a grand Ram Temple was opened for the public earlier this year. Singh, a three-time MP from Faizabad, was facing SP candidate Awadesh Prasad." News18. Curiously, all exit polls predicted a huge victory for the NDA with over 350 seats. India Today. They also predicted big wins for the BJP in UP, Maharashtra, Haryana and even West Bengal. Mint. In 2014 and 2019, on the other hand exit polls differed widely among each other. FP. As a result of exit polls showing a massive win for the BJP stock markets jumped. The BSE Sensex gained 2,507 points to close at a record 76,469 points, thus generating Rs 13.8 trillion for investors. TOI. When results started coming out yesterday the Sensex collapsed by 6,000 points but recovered somewhat to close down 4,390 points or 5.7%, wiping Rs 31 trillion of wealth. BS. So far this morning, the BSE is up 1,643 points to 73,697 points. Sensex. It means that the exit polls were an enormous opportunity for some to unload their shares at very high prices and then gain by short selling yesterday. That may explain the rise in Sensex this morning as short sellers square their positions. Only the regulators can tell us. 

The bouncing GDP.

"Beating the expectations of analysts, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 7.8% on an annual basis in the last quarter (Q4) of the FY24." The growth of Q3 has been revised upwards from 8.4% to 8.6%, "Therefore, the growth in the previous three quarters now stand at 8.2% in Q1, 8.1% in Q2 and 8.6% in Q3, on an annual basis." "The GDP growth for FY24 has also been revised upwards to 8.2% from the second advanced estimate of 7.6%." ET. Also, "The Centre contained its fiscal deficit at 5.6% of GDP in FY24, beating the revised estimate of 5.8% on the back of improved resource mop-up and curtailed revenue expenditure." ET. This is because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has decided to transfer Rs 2.1 trillion as profits from a 17% increase in its income and a 56% fall in its expenses. ET. "The Centre collected Rs 1.73 lakh crore (Rs 1.73 trillion) towards the goods and services tax (GST) in May, around 10% higher on an annual basis," but less than the Rs 2.1 trillion collected in April. ET. That may be because "Annual retail inflation in April was 4.83%, down from 4.85% in March." Reuters. The slight fall in CPI inflation may have been because the government cut domestic cooking gas prices by Rs 100 rupees per cylinder on 8 March, thus reducing fuel costs by a tad. BS. It is a coincidence that, as the GST collections fell from Rs 2.1 trillion in April, the RBI stepped in with a gift of Rs 2.1 trillion in May. A friend in need is a friend indeed. Dictionary. "For all the pride we can justifiably take in India having become the world's fifth largest economy (and IMF projections of becoming the fourth biggest by 2025 and third by 2027). the reality is that when it comes to per capita income we are close to the bottom of the global league tables, at No 144." " It is a sobering thought that in per capita terms, it is only by 2029 that India is forecast to overtake countries like Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea and Angola." Mint. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that, at 18% of GDP, India has one of the lowest external debt among G20 countries. However, the true foreign liability is the difference between assets, which include "all foreign financial assets that Indians own, including international reserves held by the central bank" and liabilities which "consist of domestic assets that foreigners own: direct and portfolio investment into India and external debt such as bonds, loans, deposits, trade credit." This difference is known as the net international investment position (NIIP) and is negative for India. "Between 2003 and 2023, this net liability went up from $60 billion to $396 billion, rising from 9.9% to 11.1% of GDP," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. According to the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), workforce participation has risen from 67.7% to 69.8% from January-March 2022 to January-March 2024 for men, and from 18.3% to 23.4% for women. But rural regular wages declined by 1.3% per annum in the last five years while urban wages declined by 2.7% per annum in the same period, wrote Prof Himanshu. The GDP is on a trampoline. The people are in a hole. 

Rs 34 trillion for 74%.

"In a blog on Sunday (yesterday), Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that India's governance model of the last decade has become an example for several countries in the world as the nation managed to lift 25 crore (250 million) people from poverty, saw adoption of innovative practices of good governance, and worked for the welfare of the poorest people without any discrimination." ET. "Analysis outside India on Indian politics tends to focus on democratic backsliding under the Modi government, but this overlooks the fact that Modi remains a democratically elected leader whose hold on power largely reflects the will of the people." Mr Modi's popularity is driven by a "welfare and development-driven agenda" in which, Mr Modi said, "his government has spent more than Rs 34 trillion ($400bn) in the past decade, delivering cash benefits to low-income households and reaching over 900 million people" (BBC), by inaugurating a new Ram Temple in the city of Ayodhya (BBC) as a proof of Hindutva, by a muscular foreign policy when Mr Modi said "No more dossiers to Pak on ultras, India kills them on their home turf" (TOI), and by Mr Modi's personal popularity rating of 74%, the highest in the world (Morning Consult). But, "There are signs of the government pursuing authoritarianism by stealth by employing key levers of power - including the judiciary, media and security services - to mount a witch-hunt against opposition politicians and civil society." Chatham House. Due to concerns over democratic backsliding, "Amid questions surrounding the Election Commission's conduct and the sanctity of the electoral process in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, over 120 civil organisations came together on 21 May to raise concerns about potential 'manipulation' of votes on counting day." The Wire. Not just government agencies, but the Home Office itself has been questioned by Ladakhi innovator and activist Sonam Wangchuk, who said that trolls have accused him of being a CIA agent, taking money from American George Soros and "taking Chinese money and engaging in Chinese propaganda". "But what is intriguing here is how this information, which is in files from 25 years ago - and it couldn't be from us, so from the home ministry's files - has somehow reached the hands of these trolls." The Wire. "Jingoists may sometimes take pride in believing that the outside world is against them; admittedly, enemies give one a sense of outsized importance." But, "If India's institutions are deemed unreliable or politically compromised, it may deter Western investors and businesses from bringing their money into the country." DH. If foreigners are biased, why do they need an army of trolls against citizens? Delusions of grandeur cost $400 billion in handouts. After all, beggars can't be choosers. Can they?

Dubai or weddings.

"The Dubai Property Leaks have exposed a significant number of prominent Pakistanis who own high-end properties in Dubai." Among them are "President Asif Ali Zardari's children, Hussain Nawaz Sharif, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi's wife, Sharjeel Memon, Senator Faisal Vawda," and also "late Gen Pervez Musharraf, former prime minister Shaukat Aziz, retired generals, a police chief, an ambassador and a scientist." TOI. In Pakistan, politicians may be named but not serving generals, only dead and retired ones. In India, it would be the opposite. In Pakistan the army controls the police while in India politicians do. So, despite directions by the Supreme Court in Prakash Singh vs Union of India 2006, there has been no reform of the police. TOI. "What is worse? Police flouting all mandatory procedures while arresting and gathering evidence, or the government lawyer, an officer of the court, asking judges to overlook the conduct? What is worse? Policemen accompanying a lynch mob, or their seniors entrusting these very policemen with the investigation of lynching? They prove, if at all further proof was required, that our police is beyond the pale," wrote Jyoti Punwani.  "The biggest winner in South Africa's election this week may be former President Jacob Zuma whose newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has exceeded expectations and emerged as a major factor in the African National Congress' sharp drop in support." Reuters. "Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), was the paramilitary wing of the African National Congress (ANC) from 1961 to 1993. Founded by Nelson Mandela and others," it "carried out waves of sabotage and guerrilla attacks against South Africa's apartheid government." Britannica. Zuma just nicked the brand. In 2013, "A senior South African diplomat has been suspended over use of a military airport by wealthy Indian supporters of President Jacob Zuma," when "A large chartered plane landed at Waterkloof Air Force base...carrying 200 guests who received a full police escort to the Sun City resort for the four-day wedding of 23-year-old Vega Gupta." NDTV. In India, "In a rare case, the Narendra Modi government has given the international tag to the sensitive defence airport at Gujarat's Jamnagar town for just 10 days so that guests invited to the wedding of Mukesh Ambani's son can land close to the venue. The international tag to the Indian Air Force airport close to the Pakistan border was given for February 25 to March 5 (2024)." The Wire. "South Africa's former president Jacob Zuma, who spent only two months of a 15-month in prison in 2021, was granted remission approved by President Cyril Ramaphosa." Reuters. In India, Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim, convicted of rape and murder, has been out on parole 9 times, for a total of 91 days, in two years, including for cutting a birthday cake with a large sword. NDTV. Immunity for the elite, third degree (dictionary) for the rest. That's why we are the third world (wikipedia).