The US is over 8,000 miles away.

"The consumer price index showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% after increasing 0.3% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than October." CNBC. "The US central bank cut interest rates.., as expected, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation." "Powell's explicit - and repeated - references to the need for caution from here on jolted Wall Street, sending stocks sharply lower, bond yields higher and leading investors to dial back estimates of how far borrowing costs are likely to fall over the coming year." Reuters. The Fed cut its Funds rate by 0.25% to 4.25%-4.5% but the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2.58%, "The S&P 500 lost almost 3% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.6%." BBC. So what? India is 13,595 km or 8,448 miles from the US so it should not matter to us. It did. "The Indian rupee weakened to a record low of 85.10 against the US dollar (India Today) because "India's economic growth moderated to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY25 (ET), "India's merchandise trade deficit in November widened to an all-time high of $37.84 billion from $27.1 billion in October" and "the US Federal Reserve's projection of fewer rate cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation has strengthened the US dollar, making emerging market currencies like the rupee more vulnerable." Matters could have been worse but for the record $129 billion, or Rs 10.7 trillion, in remittances sent by Indians living abroad. It was Rs 8.95 trillion last year. News18. In its December meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) voted 4:2 to keep the interest rate unchanged for the 11th time at 6.25%. ET. MPC member Nagesh Kumar voted for a 25 basis points cut in the interest rate because "the repo rate cut "would help in reviving economic growth without worsening the inflationary situation". ET. "India's forex reserves dropped by $1.988 billion to $652.869 billion for the week ended December 13, the RBI said." BS. It is down from $704.89 billion from the week ended 27 September. BS. This is because the value of reserves keeps changing and also because the RBI has been selling dollars to soften the fall of the rupee. A weak rupee makes imports more expensive and increases consumer prices. However, selling dollars in exchange of rupees creates a shortage of the currency in banks and forces lending rates higher. So, the RBI conducted a variable repo rate auction (VRR) for an amount of Rs 1.50 trillion but received bids of Rs 2.01 trillion, indicating a strong demand for funds from banks amid a huge liquidity deficit. FE. "The US goods and services trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2022." ustr.gov. The stock market index the Sensex has fallen 4,100 points in one week because of the US Fed's hawkish outlook on rate cuts. TOI. When the RBI is conducting gymnastics to protect the rupee while ensuring enough money in banks, how will a 25 basis points rate cut set fire to economic growth? And, Donald Trump hasn't been sworn in yet. Being an MPC member seems very easy. Just cut rates.

Dysfunctional, but exceptional.

"Having tagged America's inordinately large share of global financial markets as the 'mother of all bubbles," "Almost no one foresees an imminent pop. Virtually every Wall Street analyst predicts US stocks will continue outperforming the rest of the world in 2025." "Hype for American superiority is now the stuff of TV, radio, podcasts, newspaper columns and magazine cover stories," but "The longer it lasts, the more confident investors get and the more indiscriminately they buy into the mania," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of an increasingly dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarized at home. But in the investing world, the term 'American exceptionalism' is hotter than ever. America's share of global share markets is far greater than its 27% share of the global economy, and the arrival of Donald Trump has only reinforced this disconnect," Sharma wrote earlier. Sharma is sounding like Prof Nouriel Roubini who was named 'Dr Doom' because of his habit of predicting economic disasters. He predicts Trump's policies will lead to higher inflation with stagnant growth, or stagflation. Yahoo. About 4.97 billion people in the world use Google and "According to SimilarWeb data, Google generated 83.26 billion visits in September 2024." Only American companies - Google and Meta - are free for users. In January, "Microsoft became the second-ever company worth $3 trillion" because "In 2023, the company's CEO, Satya Nadella, made a multibillion-dollar investment in AI, commercializing and adding tools like ChatGPT to its suite of products before rivals." CNN. Of the 12 trillion-dollar companies in the world, only three, Saudi Aramco, TSMC of Taiwan and PetroChina, are not from the US. wikipedia. In June, Nvidia became the third $3 trillion company after Apple and Microsoft. Investopedia. Market analyst Dan Ives believes Nvidia could become a $5 trillion company. ET. A US company SpaceX is already transporting people and cargo to the International Space Station. It is planning missions to the Moon and Mars. "NASA will partner with seven US companies to meet future and government needs, ultimately benefiting human spaceflight and US commercial low Earth orbit economy." In the US, "Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in October, the Commerce and Census Bureau said." "Retail sales increased 3.8% year-on-year." Reuters. The US has little competition. The second largest economy China has seen a spate of deadly attacks in recent weeks because "Millions of young Chinese struggle to find jobs. Homeowners have been watching their property values sink...Many migrant workers and even some government employees aren't getting paid." WSJ. If the global economy collapses the US will also fall but, as of now, the US has the best chance of coming out unscathed. Sharma may dislike Trump but the US survived Trump I and will likely survive Trump II. A case of crying wolf?   

Selective doubts.

"Doubts are often raised by some economists over the veracity of India's GDP estimates," but only when the growth in GDP is high and not when it falls, wrote Krishnamurthy Subramanian. In any economy, the Real GDP and the Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) should be about equal but in the US there is a difference of $800 billion between Real GDP and Real GDI. "At 2.7% of GDP, this discrepancy is incredibly large as US's GDP growth itself is only 3.4%." So should the US figures also be described as "fake"? In the US every aspect of the economy is studied by the Federal Reserve, which has 12 branches, big commercial banks, universities (Ideas) and a large number of think tanks (INOMICS). In India, the government decides what story to feed the public. "After facing setbacks in the general elections, the Narendra Modi-led government doesn't want to give an impression to the public that it is collecting high taxes by way of indirect taxes, government sources told TNIE after the Centre didn't release official figures of monthly collection of goods and services tax (GST)." In 2019, acting Chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) PC Mohanan and member of NSO J Meenakshi resigned in protest against government interference in data release. NDTV. "While few believe Indian statisticians are actively working to make growth numbers look better than they are, less and less data is publicly available, methods are less transparent and the GDP figures in particular sometimes diverge puzzlingly from independent data." India's large services sector and the informal economy are hard to calculate and "The figures for value-added contributed by the private sector have been particularly worrisome. They are often out of sync with other macroeconomic indicators." "India has wound up with official statistics that are unpredictable, don't match up with other figures, aren't robust to how price shifts are calculated and provide limited comparability over time," wrote Mihir Sharma. "The decennial population census that was scheduled in 2021 has still not happened." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "estimates that from the end of 2018-19 up to end of 2023-24, close to 151 million jobs were created," despite the pandemic in 2020 and 2021.The Late Chinese Premier Li Kiquang "liked looking at indicators like railway cargo, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks to get an indication of which way the Chinese economy was really headed." Perhaps we need our own Li Kiquang Index, wrote Vivek Kaul. In August, the same Mr Subramanian claimed that India can become a $55 trillion economy by 2047. All we have to do is grow by 8% every year. TOI. "For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating." "Over 120 million people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor looking for employment." India is showing the "markers of a failed middle-income country," said Rathin Roy. Economists in India have become sycophants. "Policy positions no longer seem based on economics. Instead, economists' public utterances tend to signal a leaning towards personalities or politics, perhaps to get picked for policymaking positions, or seem to vent frustration at getting fired from such jobs," wrote Puja Mehra. Economists or sycophants, toadies, creepy-crawlies? So many Lord Haw Haws (wikipedia).  

Can't blame Trump.

"Donald Trump, the United States' president-elect, has once again fired a warning shot at India over its high tariffs on American goods. This latest warning comes months after Trump called India a 'very big abuser' of tariffs, highlighting the persistent friction in the US-India trade dynamic." That could be detrimental to our balance of trade because, "In 2023-24, imports from the US stood at $42.2 billion, while exports to the US reached $77.52 billion, making America India's largest export destination." ET. As it is, "India's merchandise trade deficit in November widened to an all-time high of $37.84 billion from $27.1 billion in October. "A widening trade deficit may put further pressure on India's currency, which weakened 0.5% against the dollar last month, marking its worst month since March." ET. There could be other sources of friction with the US. In September 2018, "Walmart's acquisition of 77% stake in Flipkart has made the income tax department richer by over Rs 100 billion after the American giant agreed to pay all dues in consultation with the government." TOI. In December 2018, "When I published recently that Walmart had invested $16 billion in India's Flipkart e-commerce platform," "My worries were confirmed by a recent decision by the Indian government that will bar foreign companies from selling products from affiliated companies on their Indian shopping sites. It will also prevent them from offering special discounts and exclusive products." Forbes. Changing rules after the sale has gone through is underhand, immoral and projects India as untrustworthy. "Walmart has already spent nearly two decades waiting for local regulations to become a little more welcoming of its investment dollars." "On paper, the rule is all about safeguarding livelihoods of the kirana stores," but "In reality, though, mom-and-pop shops are being shielded only from the Americans," giving an advantage to Reliance Industries of Mukesh Ambani. "But a delayed Flipkart IPO could just become a lightning rod for the incoming Trump administration to negotiate hard for US firms' access to Indian retail." ET. Highly justified and righteous. Trump could really hurt our most tender spot. "After months of sustained increase, last month's (November) services exports have been provisionally estimated at $35.7 billion, compared with $32.1 billion of merchandise or goods exports." "Currently, software is the big daddy of services, accounting for 47% of exports last year, with nearly 70% heading to the US." TOI. Europe became rich by looting its colonies and the US became rich by employing slave labor and they have become 'Master States', wrote Diva Jain. "While military strength is important, the entry ticket to this elite club of 'Master Nations' is governed by economic influence." After World War II, the US helped to rebuild Europe, including Germany, through the Marshall Plan, and helped Japan by providing security and making it an exporting power. That's why the US has so many friends and is so powerful. We don't play fair. That makes us vulnerable. Can't blame Trump.   

The sweetest deal.

"India's private sector output growth strengthened to its highest level in four months during December, according to the latest HSBC 'flash' PMI data compiled by S&P global." It has increased from 56.5 in November to 57.4 in December. Zee. But, why a celebration in the middle of the month, why not wait till it ends? Just a little propaganda to help the government because, "Between July and September, India's economy slumped to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%, well below the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast of 7%." "Consumer spending has weakened, private investment has been sluggish for years and government spending - an essential driver in recent years - has been pulled back." BBC. But, "Are corporates evading accountability," because, "One, they haven't increased salaries despite profits. Two, they are paying lower taxes than even individuals. Three, they have not generated employment and invested in capacity building despite the tax breaks since 2019." "Even the biggest average salary hike of 5.4% is lower than the rate of inflation, which grew at an annual average of 5.7% in the last five years." India Today. "Around 4,000 listed companies in India reported a 6% growth in revenue or gross sales during financial year 2024, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI)." Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) increased by 28% and profit after tax (PAT) increased by 32%, whereas "Employee costs grew by only 13%," suggesting that "companies are focusing on optimizing their wage bills while maintaining profitability." ET.  "The 'buy now, pay later' (BNPL) schemes and the credit card spending facilitate immediate consumption and reduce the savings of the younger generations, said Michael Debabrata Patra, Deputy Governor, RBI." "This makes it harder for central banks to regulate and stabilize economic activities effectively." ET. "India's merchandise exports in November stood at $32.11 billion, while imports were $69.95 billion," so that trade deficit "widened to an all-time high of $37.84 billion from $27.1 billion in October." "Gold imports in November reached an all-time high of USD 14.8 billion." ET. At least people are saving in gold to hedge against inflation. Indian politicians and industrialists conveniently pass the blame on to the RBI for the fall in growth rate, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Both Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal have flagged high interest rates as a dampener for growth," and "recently underlined the need to lower interest rates to spur growth." India Today. However, "The previous episode of low interest rates saw Indian corporates deleverage their balance sheets but fail to invest in fresh capacity." On the other hand, "Data available for April-November 2024 shows overseas investment (equity plus debt) totaling $12.2 billion, in addition to $15 billion in guarantee issuances." "Indian commercial banks wrote off Rs 12.3 trillion in loans between the 2014-15 and 2023-24 financial years, according to government data presented in Parliament," of which Rs 6.5 trillion came from public sector (government owned) banks. ET. Raise prices for enormous profits, pay low taxes, loot the banks, squeeze employees and blame the RBI. Can't get sweeter than this. Such loving cronies.     

Deflated Xi Jinping.

"Prices for goods leaving Chinese factories have fallen year-over-year for 26 consecutive months, dropping 2.5% in September from a year earlier, and there is no sign of them turning up again soon." "The fear is that deflation is becoming ingrained in China. As falling prices sap profitability, companies could postpone investments or shed workers, leading more people to cut back on spending." One problem is that policies are focused on immediate financial risks and another is that Beijing is extending loans and subsidies to factories, leading to more production." WSJ. Chinese tycoons are deliberately devaluing their wealth, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "On Chinese social media, chatter broke out about how corporate tycoons might be competitively devaluing their own stock prices in order to avoid the widening crackdown on excessive wealth." "Since the crackdown began, the number of millionaires leaving China has been on the rise and peaked last year at 15,000." Only 4,300 left India. So, "China has unveiled an ambitious plan to relieve public debt, aiming to turn local governments away from belt-tightening practices that have exacerbated a domestic slowdown." The debt in state-owned companies is hidden in local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and is estimated at 60.4 trillion yuan ($8.4 trillion). ET. In February, Donald Trump promised to "impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in his potential second term." CNBC. He also promised an extra 10% tariffs on China for smuggling fentanyl into the US. Reuters. Early this month, "The United States... launched its third crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group." Reuters. In retaliation, "China... banned exports to the United States of the critical minerals gallium, germanium and antimony that have widespread military applications, escalating trade tensions the day after Washington's latest crackdown on China's chip sector." Reuters. China is making too many goods for its own consumption and so "Chinese goods head to overseas markets where they kill the local industry due to their ultra low prices made possible by Chinese state subsidies and various other incentives." "With its own market bereft of demand, China is dumping low-priced steel into India where demand is robust. ET. In fact, "China topped a list of 2 countries with over 79% of total 43 dumping cases registered by India this year as the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) is conducting an investigation into an alleged damage to the domestic chemicals, glass, metals, fibers and plastic sectors." HT. Things must be so bad that Xi Jinping is getting paranoid. In his early years Xi "consolidated control over the world's largest military by taking down powerful generals from rival factions and replacing them with allies and proteges loyal to himself." Now, because, beset with high unemployment and low incomes people are complaining about "the garbage time of history" (Reuters), so "like many strongman leaders in history, he is increasingly turning against his own handpicked loyalists."  CNN. "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." SunTzu. Xi was strong when he was strong. Now he doesn't know what to do. The beginning of the end?   

Skeletons rattling.

According to the rating agency Crisil, "the India economy - in the medium term - could grow by 6.7% on average between fiscal 2025 and 2031, and touch the $7 trillion mark." ET. Union Minister of Commerce & Industry Piyush Goyal said, "India on track to become $35 trillion, fully developed economy by 2047." pib. gov.in. Sadly, India's meteoric rise under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has bred jealousy in other countries. "Since the visibility of Indians has only risen in recent years - with a string of high-profile CEOs and political figures in the US,and even a former PM in the UK - many online interactions on global forums like X have also taken the form of insults, mockery and expressions of hatred," wrote Amit Majmudar. "A survey reveals that Canadians having a favorable view of India has dropped to 26% from 56% some 20 months ago." India Today. After Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of the killing of Khalistani Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada (CBC), "Indians have united in outrage at Justin Trudeau." "Meanwhile, the Indian media has launched a half-crazed jihad against Mr Trudeau and his government. One news channel suggested that his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, was about to 'break Canada in two'." WSJ. Mr Modi's "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has accused the State Department and 'deep state' elements in the US of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi." Reuters. "The US District Court for the Southern District of New York...issued summons to the Indian government in response to a civil lawsuit filed by Khalistani terrorist GS Pannun, who alleges an assassination plot against him." ET. Pannun does not allege. The US Justice Department said, "At the direction of an Indian government employee, Nikhil Gupta worked to carry out a plot to murder US-based leader of Sikh separatist movement." justice.gov. Gupta was extradited to the US. Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted for "his alleged role in a $265 million bribery scheme". Reuters. "In 2014, Adani's net worth was $2.8 billion," but "Amidst political criticism of brazen favoritism, Adani became the second rischest person in the world in April 2022, with $90 billion in is kitty." The Wire. "Many of Adani's international deals were struck soon after Mr Modi's official visits to certain countries or after heads of governments visited India. Some of these interventions have backfired badly." Adani Watch. Then there is 94 year-old George Soros whose Open Society Foundations donate money to promote democracy and transparency. wikipedia. Should be welcomed in India which, Mr Modi said in Parliament, is the Mother of Democracy ANI. "Soros launched a tirade against the Modi government and BJP soon after their second mandate in 2019." "Since then, he is accused of inciting protests using institutions, individuals and lawmakers with liberal funds to continuously berate Modi." Still, "Legitimising Soros's power to shake or make governments is political exaggeration. Using conspiracy theories about facilitating regime change reflects the weakness of a party or leadership," wrote Prabhu Chawla. Exactly. Unless, there are skeletons in the closet. Lots of them. And Soros is merely rattling them.  

Strange that India will grow but people will not.

On 13 December, "The BSE benchmark Sensex, after an initial drop of 1207.14 points, rebounded remarkably to close at 82,133.12, showing a gain of 843.16 points or 1.04%." "The NSE Nifty finished at 24,768.30, rising by 219.60 points or 0.89%, despite an early intra-day decline of 367.9 points." TOI. "According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) invested Rs 227.66 billion in Indian equities this month, and net inflows stood at Rs 343.18 billion as of December 13, taking into account debt, hybrid, debt-VRR and equities." MInt. The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low on Thursday (12 December)," as the "Rupee hit a low of 84.88 against the dollar before closing at 84.8575, down slightly on the day." Reuters. However, with FPIs pouring money into Indian markets the rupee has hardened to 84.78 against the US dollar this morning (xe.com). "Between July and September, India's economy slumped to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%," because "Consumer demand has weakened, private investment has been sluggish for years and government spending - an essential driver in recent years - has been pulled back." The global share of goods exports was a mere 2% in 2023. "Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies report tepid sales, while salary bills at publicly traded firms, a proxy for urban wages, shrank last quarter." BBC. Markets are booming despite sluggish growth because "As per a report from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the growth in profit of Nifty-500 companies over the 2020-2024 period was 34.5% per year, whereas GDP was growing only at 10.1%." By comparison, "Economists Amit Basole and Zico Dasgupta report from the third quarter of 2021-22 to the second quarter of 2023-24, the average GDP growth rate was 6.7% whereas regular wages stagnated (minus 0.7% growth)." "A recent report from Citibank says that for the first three quarters of 2024, growth in inflation-adjusted wages cost for listed Indian companies has remained below 2%, as against a ten-year average of 4.4%," wrote Ajit Ranade. "The recovery from the pandemic - fueled by pent-up demand, a surge in stock-market wealth and a big expansion in household credit - is exhausted." "Loans against gold are surging at a 50%-plus annual pace, a tell-tale sign of desperation among lower-income borrowers struggling to keep their heads above water." "Back in 2018 and 2019, GDP growth had slumped to just 3% from 9%." "This time around, too, they appear to be in denial," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Unless the government figures out a way to get cities growing faster, officials might find themselves caught in another trap. Poor economic outcomes will lead to demands for welfare for the middle class rather than growth-first policies, which will in turn drive down growth even lower. India may have two vicious circles to break, not one," wrote Mihir Sharma. It may take 75 years for India just to reach one quarter of US per capita income, the World Bank said. DH. So India will grow but the people will not. What is this growth. Strange.       

Soros could use ONOE.

"Since 2010, more than 60 protest movements have erupted against ruling governments across the world." Starting with the Arab Spring in 2010-2011. "The second wave of protests commenced in 2019 and spread across the world," wrote Neera Chandhoke. The Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia in December 2010, when a street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi committed self-immolation in protest against treatment by local officials leading to a mass uprising and the flight of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Britannica. Egypt's protests started spontaneously in January 2011 and resulted in 846 deaths and over 6,000 injuries. President Hosni Mubarak was forced out. BBC. However, the Muslim Brotherhood grabbed power in elections that followed and Mohammed Morsi became president for one year before being ousted by further protests and the army. BBC. In August 2024, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled from Bangladesh after mass protests. BBC. Muhammad Yunus, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his micro credit initiative, is cozying up to Islamist parties and is covering up crimes against minorities. India Today. Security requirements for visas for Pakistanis have been removed. TOI. Last week, rebels seized control of Syria in a matter of days forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia. Reuters. Assad's fall is a result of the sudden Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 which resulted in 1200 deaths. More than 240 people were taken hostage. Britannica. In September 2024, thousands of pagers used by the Hezbollah exploded killing at least 32 people and injuring thousands. The next day, exploding walkie-talkies killed 20 people and injured at least 400 more. BBC. Later the same month, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed by a bunker buster bomb in Beirut. ABC. In October, Nasrallah's successor Hashem Safieddin was killed in Israeli bombing in Beirut. BBC. In October, Israel struck military installations inside Iran with precision strikes for over three hours (TJP) forcing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to go into hiding in a secure location inside Iran (Reuters). Without his supporters Assad became collateral damage for the Hamas attack. South Korean President faces an impeachment vote in Parliament today for his attempt at imposing martial law. Large demonstrations have been going on since his attempt. Reuters. In all these nations, an overwhelming majority of people use one common language. India has 28 states with different languages, culture and separate elections to state assemblies. Know India. "The Union Cabinet on 12 December approved the 'One Nation, One Election' (ONOE) bill," apparently to save cost and stop disruptions due to elections on different dates in different states. ET. One reason may be that the BJP hopes to harness Mr Modi's popularity rating at over 70% (Ipsos) to win in all the states and thus impose one-party rule in India. They should be careful. A homogeneous one-party rule could invite massive all-India protests by a united opposition. The BJP should remember that George Soros wanted Mr Modi to lose power. Reuters. Soros may be 94 years old but is still alive. wikipedia. Forget ONOE. Remember Soros. Terrifying.      

Economic growth through 'Ji Huzoor'.

India's "Retail inflation eased in November to 5.48%, lower than 6.21% in the previous month," as "Food inflation slowed down to 9.04% from 10.87% a month earlier." "The decline in inflation, together with a sharp fall in growth in the July to September quarter to a seven-quarter low, supports expectations of a rate cut in February when the monetary policy committee meets next." Reuters. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed down to 5.4% during the second quarter (Apr-Sept) of the financial year 2024-25 due to the falling growth rate in manufacturing, consumption and mining." HT. "Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, stood at 3.9% in November 2024," while "industrial output rose to a three-month high of 3.5% year-on-year in October...driven by a boost in consumer durables and manufacturing during the festival season." Mint. On 10 December, "The Indian rupee slipped to a record low and government bond yields fell.., as the appointment of career bureaucrat Sanjay Malhotra as the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prompted traders to ramp up bets on rate cuts." Yesterday, "The rupee hit a low of 84.88 against the dollar before closing at 84.8575," as "The RBI has been routinely selling dollars in the spot market...to support the local currency as it has consistently hit new all-time lows." Mint. Every central bank faces a 'trilemma' which is 1. A fixed currency exchange rate, 2. Allowing capital to flow freely and 3. Autonomous monetary policy. Investopedia. India does not allow capital account convertibility, which means allowing conversion of any amount of rupees to any foreign currency, because that would lead to extreme volatility. CNBC. Hence, the RBI's governor faces a different trilemma - that of "balancing economic growth, inflation and exchange rate stability". "Rahul Bajoria, an economist with the Bank of America, highlighted RBI's 'three-body problem' as it navigates slowing growth, elevated inflation and exchange rate pressures." TOI. The main problem is inflation. The RBI has a mandate from the government to keep retail inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side." ET. However, from 2014 to 2023 the RBI has been happy with inflation higher than 4% (RI), except for 2017, 2018 and 2019, when the average rate of inflation fell a little below 4% probably because India's GDP growth rate fell from 8.26% in 2016 to 3.87% in 2019, (Macrotrends) due to the demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes in November 2016 (wikipedia). In the US, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 2.7% in November which was 0.1% higher than in October. Core CPI was at 3.3%. CNBC. While the US finds a rate of 2.7% intolerable, in India there is a raucous chorus for cutting interest rate even with an inflation rate of 5.48%. Higher inflation means that the value of the rupee keeps falling as the rupee buys less. One dollar was less than Rs 60 in May 2014 (Thomas Cook) when this government was first elected (wikipedia), but has risen to Rs 84.8575 yesterday. A weaker rupee increases the cost of imports and results in higher inflation which, in turn, reduces the value of the rupee. Donald Trump will be sworn in on 20 January. His victory caused the rupee to fall, so what effect his policies will have is not known. Mint. The new governor of the RBI will want to please his masters in government who totally believe in lower interest rates to increase economic growth. However, the economy cannot grow if people restrict spending due to rising prices. Ji huzoor can't support the rupee or control inflation. Please Dear Leader. Enough.

Different, but the same.

"Sanjay Malhotra, the revenue secretary, has been appointed as new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor by the Narendra Modi government." "Sanjay Malhotra, a 1990 batch Indian Administrative Service (IAS) Officer from the Rajasthan cadre, holds a Bachelor's degree from IIT Kanpur and earned his Master's in Public Policy from Princeton University." TOI. He takes over from Mr Shaktikanta Das, who was a retired IAS officer with a Master's degree in History, when he was appointed as the Governor of RBI in December 2018. wikipedia. Mr Malhotra held a press conference in which, "Underscoring the value of consultation in policy-making, he pledged to continue the RBI's practice of engaging with stakeholders. He added that knowledge and expertise are not the monopoly of any one institution and consultation will remain a key pillar of our policy making process." Mint. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank of India is fully owned by the government of India." Its Preamble directs it "to have a modern monetary policy framework to meet the challenge of an increasingly complex economy, to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth." rbi.org.in. Hence, "consultation" will decide policy and "knowledge and expertise" in economics is not necessary. "Since its inception in 1935, the RBI has had 25 governors," and "Of them, as many as 14 were civil servants, seven were professional economists, three were from the financial sector and only one from the RBi cadre of officers." Mr Modi had difference of opinion with Prof Raghuram Rajan and Prof Urjit Patel, both economists, and hence prefers civil servants. The Print. Prof Rajan opposed the demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes (HT) which failed in its objectives and was disastrous for the economy as growth fell to 4% in 2019-20 (Mint). Demonetisation was imposed suddenly on 8 November 2016 (wikipedia) and the GDP growth rate fell precipitously from 8.26% in 2016 to a mere 3.87% in 2019 (Forbes), the year before Covid pandemic. Prof Patel resigned in December 2018, nine months before his tenure was to end. ET. It was because he refused to allow the government to loot Rs 2-3 trillion from RBI reserves to win the general election in 2019, wrote former RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya. With Mr Das as governor, the RBI transferred Rs 1.76 trillion to the government in 2019. TOI. Much better to appoint an IAS officer who will prefer "consultation" to "knowledge and expertise". "The structure of the UPSC (Union Public Service Commission) is such that people enter the IAS with a variety of educational backgrounds, and end up in a system where a potato expert is looking after defence, a veterinary doctor is supervising engineers, a history graduate is dictating health policy and so on. The scheme of transfers and postings is such that there is no match between the expertise of an officer and the post she is expected to hold." "What the senior IAS officer at the most does is that he acts as an interpreter between a marginalized technocrat and the semi-literate politician," wrote Shah Faesal. Hence the need for consultations. How frequently?    

Foolproof system.

"Indian school Education is in quite a terrible state. Research studies have revealed high absenteeism, and barely half the teachers were actually teaching at the time of surveys." "In 2009, India participated in the Programme for International Students Assessment (PISA) school rankings." "It came 72 out of 74 countries," and "India's reaction was to stop participating in PISA!" Now two Indian schools "have been adjudged 'best school in the world' by T4 Education," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "We run nine schools, with a total of 2,700 students." "The schools are completely free - no tuition fees, no charges for books, uniforms, the midday meal or anything else." "Simply put, our schools are better resourced and supported than most schools in India." And yet, "About 20% of our students do not achieve foundational literacy and numeracy (FLN) by grade 3, and 6% not even by grade 5," wrote Anurag Behar. Because of poverty. The University Grants Commission (UGC) is aiming for 'flexibility'. Students can join and complete courses at their choosing and even "be eligible for courses without a background in those specific disciplines". How can this help when, "ILO data show that less than 40% of Indians are engaged in work that matches their education level - India, at 124, is one of the lowest in this ILO list of 145 countries. A little under a quarter of Indians hold jobs for which they are overqualified. But many more hold jobs for which they are under-educated - 40%, one of the highest shares in the world," wrote Chandrima Banerjee. One reason could be that companies are deliberately employing unqualified people to pay lower wages, which is creating unemployment among the qualified workers, forcing them to accept lower-paid posts for which they are overqualified. The Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) clearly shows rising levels of unemployment along with rising levels of literacy, with nearly full employment for the illiterate and highest unemployment among those educated higher than secondary level. TOI. In Delhi University "most students are now relying on YouTube instead of books for learning." This, despite "several universities in the West have put their courses online, and these are of excellent quality and free to download." There are other online courses free of cost. But "these lectures assume a basic understanding and prior knowledge of the subject, which most students feel they lack. The courses are also rigorous and demanding of their time and attention, which they are reluctant to put in," wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. Poor education levels and poor value for higher education. Worryingly, India is projected to have 350 million children by 2050 according to a UNICEF report. TIE. However, 2050 is far away and elections are to be won now. So, "Cash handout schemes have, of late, become politicians', across state and central governments, preferred social welfare instruments to secure votes - or bribe voters," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Keep them illiterate, give handouts, win elections. Foolproof system.

Two divine beings.

"A political controversy erupted...after one Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lawmaker attempted to link billionaire George Soros with Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and another called him a 'traitor', triggering protests from the Congress." This accusation was in retaliation to Congress MPs, including Gandhi, wearing stickers saying "Modi, Adani Ek Hain (Modi, Adani are the same)." HT. In addition, "The BJP...alleged that former Congress President Sonia Gandhi had links to an organisation financed by the George Soros Foundation and which has backed the idea of separating Kashmir from India." India Today. In an outburst of paranoia, "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP has accused the State Department and 'deep state' elements in the US of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi." Reuters. Apparently, Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which is financed by the US State Department's USAID, in association with Soros and Rockefeller Foundation, is targeting Adani and Mr Modi. The US called these accusations "disappointing". TOI. "The French investigative media outlet Mediapart has condemned the BJP for 'exploiting' its reporting and stated that there are 'no available facts' to support allegations of a conspiracy involving the US State Department, US billionaire George Soros and the Indian opposition," and called it "fake news". The Wire. Why is George Soros a bogeyman for the BJP? "Soros has openly expressed his dislike for the Narendra Modi government," and has accused Mr Modi of "creating a Hindu nationalist state, imposing punitive measures on Kashmir". ET. So what? Indian states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have voted against Mr Modi. Does it make them anti-Indian? "Today, Delhi and Islamabad both claim Kashmir in full," and "An armed revolt has been waged against Indian rule in the region for three decades, claiming tens of thousands of lives." BBC. What is Soros compared to Pakistan with nuclear weapons? Soros may have been involved in the Hindenburg Report targeting "brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme" by Indian businessman Gautam Adani. Soros has a net worth of $8.5 billion, whereas Adani is reportedly worth $64.3 billion (Forbes). No competition. In the US, Soros is an open supporter of the Democrats and contributed $720,000 to the Biden Victory Fund. Republicans accuse Soros of funding "Over 70 prosecutors across the US, advocating for reforms like reduced prosecution for non-violent crimes and adjustments to bail regulations - changes that the Republicans argue have led to rising crime rates in certain areas." ET. However, Soros is living freely in the US while Indian investigative agencies - Central Bureau of Investigation, Enforcement Directorate and the National Investigation Agency - are being used against Indian nationals. The Wire. Mr Modi is the prime minister of India while Soros is an individual. So why is the BJP so paranoid about him? It could be a mix of falling economic growth to 5.4%, (BS), a low employment-to-population ratio of just 53.4% (BS) and Mr Modi's helplessness in helping Hindus being targeted in Bangladesh (BBC). Soros believes he has divine origin and so does Mr Modi, who said, "I was convinced that God has sent me. This energy could not be from my biological body, but was bestowed upon me by God." BT. Here, we have two divine beings, one who controls enormous armed forces and another who is a 94 year old individual. It should be no contest. But the one with the armed forces is terrified. Strange. 

Motor is stalling.

"Emmanuel Macron's grand plans are now stuck in a cul-de-sac of chaotic failure after Le Pen allied with other parties...to topple Barnier. France now has no fully empowered government - and no obvious way to form a stable one for months," and so, "Investors have driven up risk premiums on French assets over peers to levels not seen in a decade and sent stocks plunging." "German industrial production fell in October." ET. Determined to hang on to his lame duck status till his term ends in 2027 (ABC), "A gravely weakened President Emmanuel Macron hopes to win a new lease of political life from Saturday's (07 Dec) ceremonial reopening of Notre Dame." BBC. "The EU as a whole is affected," as "France, together with Germany, is traditionally seen as the EU's 'motor' in terms of ideological and political horsepower." "Germany will hold a snap general election in February as its bickering coalition government recently collapsed." BBC. In addition, "Europe's struggling industries are bracing for a new gas price shock over the coming winter months, as colder weather depletes stocks, competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas intensifies, and the prospect of reduced Russian supplies looms." "Dozens of factories in Europe closed and nearly a million manufacturing jobs were lost over the last four years, Bernstein data showed." Reuters. To complicate matters, "United States President Joe Biden is doing his utmost to start new conflicts before vacating the White House on January 20. DH. Last month, Biden "authorized the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for use against Russian targets." TOI. Then he supplied Ukraine with anti-personnel land mines (BBC), which were banned by the Ottawa Treaty in 1997 (wikipedia). The US, Russia, China and India have not ratified the treaty. "In response to mounting concerns of a conflict with Russia, Sweden is distributing over five million leaflets to its citizens, offering them clear-cut instructions on how to get ready for the prospect of war and how to store up food and water." HT. While Russia's gas supplies are falling, "China's trade restrictions on strategic minerals are starting to hit Western companies where it hurts." "The price of antimony, scarce in nature but essential for military equipment such as ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons and night vision goggles, rallied by nearly 230% this year to about $39000 per metric ton." Reuters. In his desperation for re-election, Biden has deployed land mines against his own nation as, "America's national debt has reached a record high of $36 trillion, with a $2 trillion increase this year alone." ET. In addition, "The world's debt stock surged by over $12 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024 to a fresh record of nearly $323 trillion," while "Large government budget deficits suggest that government debt could rise by a third by 2028 to approach $130 trillion." Reuters. So, will the world drag the US down, or will the US drag down the world? The global economic motor is stalling. Hope it doesn't stop.    

The mighty Soros.

"The construction of a temple in Assam's Sribhumi District was temporarily halted after an intervention of the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) on Thursday (05 December)." "On Thursday afternoon, a team of BGB from Bangladesh's Sylhet division reportedly crossed the riverine border point and came to the Indian side where the construction was happening." HT. How could Bangladeshi soldiers in uniform invade Indian territory with complete impunity without any military response from our forces? "Recently, in an election rally in Uttarakhand, PM Narendra Modi had said, "Today, there is a strong Modi government in India, that is why terrorists are killed by entering their homes'." BBC. And yet, soldiers from a poor, backward country can walk into Assam and lay down the law without fear of retaliation! "Gone are the days when India just frothed and fumed at a terrorist attack instigated by Pakistan," but now, "Pakistan fears military retaliation from India in case of a terror attack," and "China too never expected India to display military and diplomatic muscle synchronized with the economic rise of its adversary." HT. "The government on Friday (06 Dec) sought action against JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar saying his latest threat exposed the duplicity of Pakistan as Islamabad had been claiming he was not in Pakistan." Azhar reportedly targeted India in his speech. TOI. "Terror attacks have killed 44 people, including 18 security personnel, in Balakot this year with the strikes spreading from the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch to six other areas in the troubled region, security officials said." ET. Terrorists from Pakistan ambushed an Army vehicle killing two soldiers and two Army porters on 24 October, an Army spokesman said." The Hindu. Did we not eliminate all Pakistani terrorists in an air strike on Balakot on 26 February 2019 (wikipedia) teaching Pakistan a lesson? Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli "arrived in China on Monday (02 Dec) for a four-day visit, his first to a foreign country since his July swearing-in and breaking tradition by not making New Delhi, with which Kathmandu has centuries old ties, his initial port of call." Reuters. "A survey reveals that Canadians having a favorable view of India has dropped to 26% from 56% some 20 months ago." India Today. Mr Modi's "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has accused the State Department and 'deep state' elements in the US of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi." Reuters. "Investigative journalists" may expose the truth. How dare they? However, according to Bhakts, in their alternate reality created through social media, (DH), one man is orchestrating all the attacks on India and Mr Modi. His name is George Soros who is a 94 year-old billionaire who supports progressive and liberal causes with donations through his Open Society Foundations. wikipedia. On 06 December, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey alleged in the Lok Sabha that Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi is conspiring with Soros. HT. One man with so much power. Ernst Stavro Blofeld would be jealous. We are so weak.

Demand matters, not just supplies.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) yesterday kept the policy rate unchanged for the 11th consecutive time at 6.5%, cut the economic growth forecast to 6.6% for 2024-25 from the earlier 7.2%, and reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4% which is expected to release nearly Rs 1.6 trillion for banks and help moderate lending rates." "The RBI also raised the inflation projection for FY25 to 4.8% from 4.5%." TOI. "At its core the cash reserve ratio represents a part of a bank's total deposits held back in reserve." "Banks cannot use these reserves to invest or lend to customers, marking it as an essential safeguard." kotak.com. CRR protects the bank from default in case of a sudden demand from customers and also helps the RBI to indirectly control the lending rate by controlling the amount of cash. Banks also have to maintain a Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) which is "the minimum percentage of deposits that the commercial bank maintains through gold, cash and other securities." The present rate of SLR is 18%. cleartax. According to the National Statistics Office, growth of the real GDP in the second quarter of financial year 2024-25 is estimated at 5.4%. pib.gov.in. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that "high frequency indicators available so far suggest that the slowdown in domestic economic activity bottomed out in the second quarter of this year and it has since recovered aided by strong festive demand and pickup in rural activities." The slowdown mainly due to "deceleration in industrial growth from 7.4% in the first quarter to 2.1% in the second quarter." ET. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 6.21% in October while food price inflation (CFPI) was at 10.87%. mospi.gov.in. Das said that "The RBI has revised its retail inflation forecast for FY25 to 4.8%, up from the earlier projection of 4.5%," because food prices will start coming down in the fourth quarter. Vegetable prices will ease but edible oil prices could remain high. ET. "Demand for goods is likely to remain subdued next year, as high inflation hurts real incomes, eroding consumer confidence, market research firm Kantar said in its outlook for 2025." "The urban middle class, once the cornerstone of the consumer goods market, has become the smallest cohort. Real incomes have been under pressure, leading to stagnating consumer confidence." Mint. Since food prices are volatile and depend on supplies, the Economic Survey 2024 suggested that the RBI should ignore food prices when setting its policy rate. The Hindu. Core CPI is the price of goods and services excluding food and fuel. Investopedia. In the 154 months since 2014, core CPI inflation was above 5% in 57% of the months, while food inflation was above 5% in 62% of the months and below 4% in 29% of the months. "Hence, targeting core inflation could result in similar responses from the MPC." Since consumption habits of Indians have changed, the basket of articles constituting household consumption should be updated, wrote Madan Sabnavis. Perhaps, all the people blaming supplies for causing inflation are forgetting that India's population is projected to peak at 1.701 billion by 2062 (BS), which means demand rising by another 300 million. Perhaps, they just want to please the government. After all, "In the long run we are all dead." (John Maynard Keynes). Cynical. Or toadies.  

The most abused word.

In reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha, the Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh stated, "The Government of India believes that asylum seekers, while applying for asylum to a foreign government, denigrate the system in India to obtain personal gains despite the fact that India, being a democratic country, provides avenues for everyone to redress their grievances legally." mea.gov.in. Really? "Over the past decade, Indian prisons increasingly had more undertrial prisoners, with their share increasing from 66% of prisoners in 2012 to 76% in 2022, a revealed in the latest Prison Statistics India report released by the National Crimes Record Bureau." "A primary contributing factor to this trend is the indiscriminate arrests carried out by the police," so that "Individuals belonging to marginalized communities are disproportionately impacted" and "difficulties in meeting bail conditions contribute to the heightened likelihood of underprivileged individuals spending time in prisons without being convicted." IndiaSpend. Cases take years to resolve as judges grant repeated adjournments to lawyers who charge fees per appearance (Lloyd Law College) and therefore profit from indefinite prolongation. Nearly 35 million criminal cases and 11 million civil cases are languishing in courts for over one year, 9% of them for over 10 years, 16% for 5-10 years, 13% for 3-5 years and 22% for 1-3 years. njdg.ecourts.gov.in. Last month, "The Supreme Court...reiterated its concern on keeping an accused under custody for a long period without commencement of trial," with Justice Ujjal Bhuyan commenting that "the conviction rate of ED is very poor." ET. ED stands for the dreaded Enforcement Directorate which can imprison people and attach bank accounts and properties (BS) without any evidence, as Justice Bhuyan noted. The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) allows authorities to lock up anyone for any length of time without bail just by accusing the person of terrorism without having to provide any evidence. wikipedia. In 2022, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs, 24,134 people were accused under the UAPA of which only 212 were  convicted. 3047 had been in prison since 2016, 4098 since 2017, 4862 since 2018, 5645 since 2019 and 6482 since 2020. The Wire.  "We Indians are happy with whatever life presents us because we have no one else except Pakistan and Bangladesh to compare with," wrote Sanjiv Krishnan Sood. After his recent travel in Uzbekistan, Sood found that "The country which is ranked 67th or so in the world in terms of Gross Domestic Product, leads the world's fifth largest economy (India) by far in infrastructure and functional systems." The Wire. "In interesting turn of events, search engine Google has seen a huge spike in web searches in India regarding 'legal immigration', 'H1B visa' and 'US birth citizenship', following Donald Trump's mega victory in the United States (US) Presidential elections." News18. In the last few days, protests by people in South Korea forced President Yoon Suk Yeol to withdraw the declaration of martial law and now the police are investigating the president himself for "insurrection". BBC. This can never happen in India because we have 28 states (Know India), each with a different government, language and culture. The greed for power ensures that there is no shortage of collaborators and so there can never be a united uprising against the government which can do anything just by having a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Democracy is thus the most abused word in India. It doesn't need any evidence. Like UAPA.

Treat the cause.

There is speculation over whether RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will receive another extension to his tenure. TOI. That is because, "India's real GDP growth stood at a 7-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2FY25, well below India's potential GDP growth of 7-7.5%." BS. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Commerce Goyal Piyush Goyal have both called for lower borrowing costs in recent months." "The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday, October 9, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting, with a majority vote of 5-1." BS. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in October was 6.21% because Food Price Inflation was at 10.87%. mospi.gov.in. Since the price of food depends on supplies, and a higher cost of borrowing will have no effect on that, ministers are convinced that India's economy will zoom into space if only the RBI slashes its policy rate. "Weak factory production and consumer demand dinged the RBI's 7% headline estimate. Manufacturing crawled in at 2.2%," and "Earnings at top companies disappointed too." "A national election in April and May caused New Delhi to hit the brakes on infrastructure spending, a heavy lifter of growth in recent years. Some of the country's 28 states have been cutting back capital expenditure to offer election-winning cash handouts." Reuters. "What is important to focus on is the significant slowdown in urban consumption," while "there has been almost no growth in organized sector jobs." India had 44.79 million workers in the organized sector in FY13, which rose to 45.72 million in FY23, "a compounded growth rate of an abysmal 0.2%." While salaries of the few at the top have soared, wage growth of workers has been tepid, wrote Sonal Sachdev. "The HSBC final India manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 last month from 57.5 in October." ET. China's economy grew at over 10% for several years. "Why does India seem incapable of even a sustained 8%?" Because, "To win elections, governments pamper powerful lobbies...and shower freebies on farmers, large industries, SMEs, various castes, religious groups, women, children and pensioners." "But this eats into funds that could accelerate investment and, hence, GDP growth," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "A detailed count of welfare/redistribution expenditure of the Union government informs that the government budgeted to spend Rs 10.77 trillion, in 2024-25," which "works out to approximately Rs 7,700 per person for India's 1.4 billion population." "Together, the Union and state governments will be spending close to Rs 26,000 per person on welfare/redistribution," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Such enormous stimulus should have increased consumption but it hasn't. Because inflation is uncontrolled and wages are too low. It's the government's responsibility, but they can't provide the solution because they have created the problem. So blame the RBI. Pathetic.     

A pious doctor.

"Us President-elect Donald Trump said...there would be 'hell to pay' in the Middle East if hostages held in the Gaza strip were not released prior to his Jan 20 inauguration." "Around half of the 101 foreign and Israeli hostages are believed to be alive." "Hamas has called for an end to the war and total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as part of any deal to release remaining hostages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the war will go on until Hamas is eradicated and poses no more threat to Israel." Reuters. It is not clear if Netanyahu is following the controversial Hannibal Directive which authorises the prevention of taking hostages even at the cost of harming Israelis. wikipedia. He has certainly put himself at risk because the judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued ridiculous and highly biased arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and only one Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, who is dead anyway. BBC. The label 'Kangaroo Court' (wikipedia) would be too respectable for this bunch of shysters. Why? "The Aljamal family was widely respected in Gaza's Nuselrat camp. They were known as pious and prominent members of the community." How pious? "When Israeli forces stormed the Aljamals' building on June 8 they found Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov and Shloml Ziv, hostages who had been captured from the Nova music festival on October 7, cowering in a darkened room." "Dr Aljamal, 74, was a general practitioner and also led the call to prayer at the local mosque." CNN. A physician indulging in torture, a pious man whose god blesses his butchery. There are 18 full time judges at the ICC (wikipedia), no doubt with enormous salaries and luxurious perks. Many of these judges are from countries where denial of the Holocaust is a crime (wikipedia). Would they have issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu for killing Josef Mengele who also had a medical degree (wikipedia)? Hamas is using ordinary Palestinians as human shields and cannon fodder (wikipedia) without their knowledge or consent. Meanwhile, "A ceasefire deal to end 13 months of conflict between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has taken effect." Both sides have 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon allowing the Lebanese army to take over. BBC. The Hezbollah has been devastated. "Many of its leaders have been killed, including long-time Chief Hassan Nasrallah, while its infrastructure has been extensively damaged." "The group has been severely weakened, some would say humiliated, but it has not been destroyed." BBC. Without Hezbollah support, and with Trump's help, Israel may be able to take out most of the Hamas leadership. Will it be wiped out? No chance of that? Despite concerted efforts, have the Western countries been able to wipe out the Mafia, drug suppliers or, more recently, people smugglers? Crime is highly profitable and an irresistible magnet for all kinds of psychos, lowlife and losers. They will return. Till then Israel may enjoy some peace. We hope so. 

Investment for voters, manufacturing for consumers.

"India's economy expanded at a lower-than-expected 5.4% in the three months ended September, with sluggish growth in manufacturing and private consumption, a reflection of weak demand because of high borrowing costs, inflation and weak real wages growth." "The headline GDP growth number is 1.3 percentage points lower than the June quarter print and the lowest in seven quarters." HT.  "Indian wages contracted last quarter for the first time since the pandemic, curbing the economy's breakneck speed as consumers cut spending and corporate profits slumped, Bloomberg reported." "Consumers are now cutting back on everything from soaps to cars." ET. "India's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 6.7% in the second half (H2) of the fiscal year, bringing the full-year 2024-25 GDP growth to 6.4%, according to a report by JP Morgan." ET. "The second quarter GDP growth slump should not really have come as a shock, because the underlying consumption trends have been flashing red for a while now." "What is important to focus on is the significant slowdown in urban consumption, even as some green shoots of rural consumption revival have been noted." This is not surprising because "there has been almost no growth in organized sector jobs. India had 44.79 million people registered in the organized sector in FY13, which rose barely to 45.72 million in FY23." "In fact, in FY16, the organised jobs tally was 48.26 million." CNBC. If jobs growth is stagnant and real wages are declining, which are reflected in weaker demand, there is no need to increase manufacturing output. "The HSBC final India manufacturing, Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 last month from 57.5 in October." "The output and new orders sub-indexes fell to their lowest and second lowest this year." "An uptick in demand from abroad was noticed for Indian-made goods. International demand rose at the fastest pace since July." Reuters. The share of manufacturing in India's economy has averaged about 17.7% since 2010. In 2014, it was 17.3%. "As the economy expanded over the years, the share of agriculture declined while that of services rose. The share of manufacturing has never reached even 20%," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare. "A recent World Bank report pointed out that India's share of global exports of apparel, leather, textiles and footwear (ALTF) rose from 0.9% in 2002  to 4.5% in 2013, only to fall to 3.5%. Even as China's dominance in the sector started to slow down by 2015,..the benefits went to Bangladesh and Vietnam rather than India." The reason is that India lacks large factories with more than 300 workers which increase productivity and bring down costs. "A chief executive of a large firm...admitted that the company would be more competitive internationally if its plant sizes were greater, but it deliberately chose not to grow because of the need to spread risks - legal and political - across multiple firms." Mint. In India, "From the politician's point of view, the choice of subsidy recipient should balance political and commercial factors." "A policy that doesn't win votes is generally dead on arrival." "When left to themselves, for example, foreign investors usually drift toward India's developed southern states. Yet newer investments in the semiconductor sector - made possible by the billions of dollars that the government has set aside - seem to be going to regions more closely associated with Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party," wrote Mihir Sharma. A shackled economy cannot grow. Remove them.

Gujaratis have the wealth.

 "The central government...said that the Indians seeking asylum abroad were 'denigrating' the nation to obtain 'personal gains'." "This came after data from the US Department of Homeland Security showed an 855% rise in Indians seeking asylum in the US in the past three years. According to data, asylum applications increased from 4,330 in the 2021 US financial year to 41,330 in FY 2023. Indian officials reported that nearly half of these applicants are from Gujarat." Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. wikipedia. And, "Gujarat is where all the investments meant for other states are redirected. Gujarat is where the two most powerful people in the country come from. Gujarat is also where India's two richest people come from. It's where the number of Gujarati businessmen who made millions during the life of this government keeps increasing." And yet, "10 Indians try to enter the United States illegally every single hour. And that 50% of them are from Gujarat." "If Gujarat is booming - and we keep being told that it is - and if this is the golden age of Gujarati millionaires, why are so many Gujaratis trying to sneak into America?" asked Vir Sanghvi. It would be supreme irony if the increasing wealth of Gujaratis due to discrimination against other Indians by this prejudiced government is enabling them to pay the vast sums demanded by people smugglers. The cheaper route costs up to $10,000, from West Africa to Nicaragua and then on foot to the US. "The second route,..offers charter flights to Central America and overland transfers to the US border for between $72,000 and $96,000 per person, with full payment often due after arrival in the US." TOI. We don't know if they thank Mr Modi for being able to afford such enormous sums of money. "According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), 1.75 million Indians voluntarily surrendered their passports between 2011 and June 2023. From Antigua & Barbuda, Iceland, and the Vatican to the US, UK, France and Germany, Indians have given up citizenship to immigrate to about 135 countries worldwide." Highest was 2,25,620 in 2022. FE. Anywhere is better, far away from India. Why? A few days back, "three men died when their car veered off an unfinished bridge and fell on to a riverbed in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh." "There were no barricades or sign boards indicating that the bridge was unfinished." BBC. However, Delhi Police is renowned for putting barricades on busy roads, creating long traffic jams and creating immense inconvenience to people for no justifiable reason (TIE). Not just cars, people can't walk either. "Even in India's biggest cities, proper footpaths are few and far between and they are often overrun by hawkers and shops, parked vehicles and even cattle." "Even footpaths that exist are often not built to standard or properly maintained." BBC. A model waste-to-energy plant in Okhla, Delhi "is exposing one million people to highly toxic emissions," and "workers at the plant were tipped off about checks by pollution boards, giving them time to take corrective measures," New York Times reported. TOI. Escape before being killed by toxic gas, being crushed in traffic or falling off an unfinished bridge. If you can afford it. Gujaratis can. Thank you, sir.