Saturday, December 14, 2024

Strange that India will grow but people will not.

On 13 December, "The BSE benchmark Sensex, after an initial drop of 1207.14 points, rebounded remarkably to close at 82,133.12, showing a gain of 843.16 points or 1.04%." "The NSE Nifty finished at 24,768.30, rising by 219.60 points or 0.89%, despite an early intra-day decline of 367.9 points." TOI. "According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) invested Rs 227.66 billion in Indian equities this month, and net inflows stood at Rs 343.18 billion as of December 13, taking into account debt, hybrid, debt-VRR and equities." MInt. The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low on Thursday (12 December)," as the "Rupee hit a low of 84.88 against the dollar before closing at 84.8575, down slightly on the day." Reuters. However, with FPIs pouring money into Indian markets the rupee has hardened to 84.78 against the US dollar this morning (xe.com). "Between July and September, India's economy slumped to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%," because "Consumer demand has weakened, private investment has been sluggish for years and government spending - an essential driver in recent years - has been pulled back." The global share of goods exports was a mere 2% in 2023. "Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies report tepid sales, while salary bills at publicly traded firms, a proxy for urban wages, shrank last quarter." BBC. Markets are booming despite sluggish growth because "As per a report from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the growth in profit of Nifty-500 companies over the 2020-2024 period was 34.5% per year, whereas GDP was growing only at 10.1%." By comparison, "Economists Amit Basole and Zico Dasgupta report from the third quarter of 2021-22 to the second quarter of 2023-24, the average GDP growth rate was 6.7% whereas regular wages stagnated (minus 0.7% growth)." "A recent report from Citibank says that for the first three quarters of 2024, growth in inflation-adjusted wages cost for listed Indian companies has remained below 2%, as against a ten-year average of 4.4%," wrote Ajit Ranade. "The recovery from the pandemic - fueled by pent-up demand, a surge in stock-market wealth and a big expansion in household credit - is exhausted." "Loans against gold are surging at a 50%-plus annual pace, a tell-tale sign of desperation among lower-income borrowers struggling to keep their heads above water." "Back in 2018 and 2019, GDP growth had slumped to just 3% from 9%." "This time around, too, they appear to be in denial," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Unless the government figures out a way to get cities growing faster, officials might find themselves caught in another trap. Poor economic outcomes will lead to demands for welfare for the middle class rather than growth-first policies, which will in turn drive down growth even lower. India may have two vicious circles to break, not one," wrote Mihir Sharma. It may take 75 years for India just to reach one quarter of US per capita income, the World Bank said. DH. So India will grow but the people will not. What is this growth. Strange.       

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