Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Times are changing.
"Democratic-led states and civil rights groups filed a slew of lawsuits challenging US President Donald Trump's bid to roll back birthright citizenship...in an early bid by his opponents to block his agenda in court." "More lawsuits by Democratic-led states and advocacy groups challenging other aspects of Trump's agenda are expected." Reuters. "Fourteen US states, including two governors from Trump's Republican Party, have filed a federal lawsuit challenging billionaire Elon Musk's authority as the head of the new Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, created by Trump for his second term." HT. "But a new court filing from the White House states that the Tesla CEO isn't an employee of DOGE, adding that Musk 'has no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself'." "Mr Trump has suggested that Musk largely answers to him." CBS. If Musk is not making any decision then the case against him becomes moot. So, "A judge...declined to immediately block Elon Musk's government efficiency department from directing firings of federal workers or accessing databases." Reuters. In the last few days Musk "shared memes elevating decades-old conspiracies about the state of the US government's gold reserve at Fort Knox." Fort Knox holds 147.3 million troy ounces of gold valued at $435 billion. The US holds 8,133 metric tons of gold in its reserves. Forbes. What if Musk finds some discrepancy? If there is less gold than thought, will the US buy gold to make up the deficit? Gold was selling at $2,913.79 an ounce yesterday. "It hit a record high of $2,942,70 last week." ET. If the US buys gold, the price may skyrocket. Will currencies fall as a result? The rupee is trading at 86.89 to one dollar this morning. ET. A weaker rupee will cause prices to rise. Already, "The rupee's relentless decline against the US dollar has intensified chances of imported inflation as well as widening of the current account deficit (CAD)." FE. However, a weaker rupee could help exports but, "Trump's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs from early April is feeding anxiety in India's export sectors from autos to agriculture, with Citi Research analysts estimating potential losses at $7 billion a year." ET. "From April-January 2024-25, India's total exports is estimated at USD 682.59 billion," while "the total imports is estimated at USD 770.06 billion." Trade deficit increased to $222.99 billion. The Statesman. We cannot afford a worsening trade deficit. If, on the other hand, Musk finds more gold than predicted, will the US sell the excess? In that case, the price of gold could plummet, slashing the price of the Reserve Bank of India's gold reserves which stand at 876.1 metric tons (wikipedia). That, in turn, will reduce the overall value of our foreign exchange reserves which stood at $638 billion as of 7 February (ET). In his first term, Trump vowed to "Drain the Swamp" (wikipedia), but may have restrained himself because he had to run for a second term. This time round he has no need to restrain himself and seems to be draining the swamp in earnest. What this will do to markets we don't know. "The Times They Are A-Changing" Bob Dylan 1964. Prescient.
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