US President Donald Trump said that "he would announce plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries over the next two days." "India has so far escaped Trump's tariffs. Yet they have already started hurting India. The exodus of foreign institutional investors (FIIs)" gathered pace, so that, "India benchmark indices closed lower for the fifth straight sessions yesterday, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,000 points and the Nifty 50 slipping below 23,100." ET. It's not just Trump." "The US Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut its short-term interest rate again given an economy that is 'strong overall' with low unemployment and inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said." ET. On 29 January, the US Fed held its Funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% in view of stubborn inflation. CNBC. Higher inflation concerns are reflected in US 10-year Treasury yields at 4.55%. CNBC. Attracted by higher yields, risk-averse investors are selling out on emerging markets. FIIs sold "Indian equities worth over Rs 780 billion in January 2025," and have sold worth Rs 73.42 billion till 10 February. Mint. As money flows out of Indian markets, the rupee fell from 86.200 against the dollar on 24 January to 87.960 on 3 February. Investing.com. On 10 February, the rupee depreciated to low of 87.95 against the dollar, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sell dollars to stop it from falling to 88 level. The RBI is believed to have sold $2-3 billion. BS. India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.05 billion to $630.607 billion as on 31 January. It had risen by $5.574 billion in the previous week. BS. Forex reserves hit an all-time high of $704.89 billion as of 27 September 2024. ET. In total, our Forex reserves are down $74 billion and change. On top of that, "The government...projected a dividend income of Rs 2.56 trillion from the RBI and public sector financial institutions in FY 2025-26, as per the Budget." NDTV. Of this massive amount, the RBI is expected to contribute around Rs 2 trillion. Last year the RBI transferred Rs 2.11 trillion as dividend (infomerics.com), thus whetting the government's appetite. Arm twisting public sector banks (PSBs) is not very profitable because the government has to recapitalise them in case of shortage. "Loans written off by commercial banks between FY15 and FY24 totaled Rs 12 trillion." The share of PSBs was 53% at Rs 6.5 trillion. TOI. "India's banking sector will need to raise USD 4 trillion in capital over the next two decades o support the country's goal of becoming a developed economy, or 'Viksit Bharat' by 2047, according to report by HSBC Mutual Fund." ET. $4 trillion converts to Rs 358 trillion at 87.5 to one dollar. Looting the RBI and PSBs is the antithesis. Viksit Bharat could become Vibhitsa Bharat. Or simply bankrupt.
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