"FPIs have net sold $21 billion over four months through January end, as per data from National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL). That's about 2.7% of their total equity holdings worth $782 billion as of January." Mint. On 14 February, "The Indian rupee logged its biggest weekly rise against the dollar in seven months, lifted by the central bank's heavy intervention in the foreign exchange market and kept speculators betting against the currency at bay." "DBS bank expects that the RBI sold $10 billion, while Goldman Sachs' estimate is close to $11 billion." Mint. "Net outflow by foreign funds on Friday (14 Feb) crossed the psychologically important Rs 1 trillion for 2025," "the total net outflow for the current month was almost Rs 255.70 billion. With a net outflow of Rs 780.27 billion in Jan, the aggregate net selling in the last one-and-a-half months is the year was nearly Rs 1.04 trillion." TOI. Foreign investors convert the proceeds from their sales into their currencies which results in an outflow of foreign exchange. But, by some amazing magic, despite the estimated selling of $10-11 billion by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), "India's foreign exchange reserves rose sharply by $7.65 billion to $638.26 billion for the week ended February 7," and "This marks the third consecutive weekly increase, following a $1.05 billion rise in the previous week." CNBC. RBI's ability to create money means that, "Dividends the government may receive from the RBI and state-run lenders in FY26 are estimated at Rs 2.56 trillion," of which 80% will be contributed by the RBI. ET. The RBI transferred a record Rs 2.11 trillion in 2023-24. Infomerics. Naturally, more is expected this year. On 10 February, the rupee touched a high of 87.997 against the US dollar before closing at 87.469. Investing.com. "Since December, the rupee has depreciated 3% against the US dollar," and "According to the RBI, a 5% depreciation by rupee leads to 30-35 basis points (BPS) rise in retail inflation." The RBI estimates the rupee will average 87 to one dollar but retail inflation will be at 4.2% in 2025-26. FE. As the rupee fell close to 88 against the dollar cost of imports went up, so "While firms fear a surge in imported inflation on account of rupee depreciation, consumer electronics companies, for instance, are taking price hikes to protect margins." FE. The RBI is cool. On 7 February, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI nonchalantly cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 6.25% by unanimous consensus. ET. The US Federal Reserve is not so brave. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed is in no rush to lower rates as the US economy remains strong (ET) as the annual CPI inflation came in at 3% in January, higher than the Fed's target of 2% (CNN). In summary, foreign investors are selling heavily, resulting in a depreciation of the rupee, which is supported by the RBI selling dollars and yet our foreign exchange reserves are rising, interest rate was cut and the RBI is expected to make a profit in excess of Rs 2 trillion. India can be a $55 trillion economy by 2047, said IMF's India Director Krishnamurthy Subramanian. Why not $100 trillion? Just square the circle (wikipedia). Simple.
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