Friday, January 17, 2025
ICU or moribund?
"India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $625.87 billion, down by $8.7 billion as of the week ending January 10, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed." ET. Forex reserves hit an all-time high of $704.89 billion on 27 September 2024. ET. "With rupee weakening to an all-time low, former RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has expressed that there is no need to be 'overly concerned' about the big slide." ET. The RBI's January bulletin states that, "The benefits of intervening in the foreign exchange market for emerging market economies like India far outweigh the costs," and "finds of 'symmetric effects of purchases and sales' and notes that interventions follow a 'leaning against the wind' strategy, where in the central bank steps in to moderate large swings in the currency." TOI. When the RBI sells dollars to stop the rupee from plunging to low levels, it helps foreign investors (FIIs) who can buy more dollars to repatriate home. FIIs have net sold Rs 465.76 billion worth of Indian stocks in January 2025, but they were more than matched by domestic investors (DIIs) who net bought Rs 493.67 billion worth. Moneycontrol. In 2024, FIIs net sold in 8 months and net bought in four, but DIIs net bought in every month. Despite constant buying by DIIs the S&P BSE Sensex has fallen from an all-time high 85,782.72 on 26 September 2024 to 76,619.3 yesterday. Trading Economics. Hence, FIIs have profited in two ways - every time they have sold stocks, buying by DIIs helped to support stock prices upward and the RBI support for the rupee helped them to gain from conversion to other currencies. When the rupee fell to 62.92 against the dollar in September 2013 (Thomas Cook), Mr Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, was scathing. "The rupee is in the hospital and has been admitted to the ICU." "They have lost control of the country." Even Bollywood actors like Shilpa Shetty and Amitabh Bachchan put in their two pennies worth. Mr Modi never speaks on relevant important matters but what about the loveys? Why not a squeak out of them? asked Vir Sanghvi. The rupee collapsed to an all-time low of 86.6475 this week (BS) before recovering to 86.58 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). Even more serious, Mr Modi has not uttered a word on the ongoing violence in Manipur since 3 May 2023, even though 221 Indians have been killed, over 1,000 injured, 60,000 displaced, 4,786 housed burnt and 386 religious structures vandalized. wikipedia. Partha S Ghosh enumerated six reasons for Mr Modi's silence. The BJP is in power in Manipur till 2027, Manipur sends only two members to Parliament, the majority Hindu community is safe, there is a huge lucrative drug trade across the border, demands for fencing on the border with Myanmar will create enormous opportunities from allocation of contracts and cronies want to exploit natural resources where minority Kukis live. The Wire. And, this man projects himself as the savior of Sanatan Dharma (TOI), which teaches honesty, refraining from injuring living beings, goodwill, self-restraint and generosity (wikipedia). Non-stop inconsequential blather. pib.gov.in. Only power and pelf (Sir Walter Scott) at any cost. Even God cannot help India.
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