Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Inversely related.

"The Indian Economy is set to face challenges in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a slightly weaker performance despite steady growth." FE. Public sector bank, "The State Bank of India (SBI) sees India's GDP growth in FY25 to be 6.3% with a 'downward bias' due to several challenges affecting economic growth." ET. "India's economy needs a readjustment, and not just in fiscal and monetary policies." "As the finance minister readies to present her annual budget next month, she would hopefully no longer rely on a giant leap by companies." "The last time India faced a growth slump just before the pandemic - in 2019 - the government responded with a surprise reduction in the corporate tax rate." Didn't work. So, "It's the 1.4 billion consumers who need the government to stand next to them and say, 'Yes,you can do it'," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2029-20 revised to 4% from 4.2% estimated earlier," as "Nominal GDP grew by 7.8% compared with a provisional estimate of 7.2%." MInt. Companies have taken advantage of the cut in their tax rate to increase their profits. "Corporate profits have grown four times in the last four years, but real wages haven't grown, according to a report." "Private consumption is the biggest driver of the Indian economy, accounting for 60% of the country's GDP. What drives consumption is money in the hands of people." India Today. "Ahead of the upcoming Union Budget presentation, finance experts and industry leaders are voicing their expectations, urging the government to address India's high taxation structure, which they say is hurting the middle-class and causing a decline in consumption." BT. Instead the government is squeezing ever higher taxes out of taxpayers. "Only 6.68% of India's population filed income tax returns in 2023-24 fiscal," which means a total of 80.9 million in absolute terms. In 2022-23, a total of 74 million returns were filed of which 49.0 reported zero taxable income. ET. That means that only 25 million out of a total of 1,456 million (worldo-meter) paid any income tax. Yet, despite this minuscule number of actual taxpayers, "Net direct tax collection increased 15.88% year-on-year to about Rs 16.90 trillion till January 12 in this financial year (April-March)," of which personal income tax contributed Rs 8.74 trillion compared to corporate tax of Rs 7.68 trillion. ET. The government sets tax collections targets on officials. "The government will exceed the Rs 22.07 trillion direct tax target for the current fiscal, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) chairman Ravi Agarwal said." BS. Not satisfied with that, "The government is making a concerted effort to recover direct and indirect tax arrears amounting to over Rs 46.57 trillion." HT. True or fake, no one knows. Dividends for resident shareholders are taxed at nearly 50%. ET. Will the budget actually reduce our tax burdens. Not a chance. Instead, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal have called for a cut in interest rates (India Today), even though consumer price index (CPI) inflation came down to 5.22% in December from 5.48% in November  (ET). Cannot consume if we have to pay sky-high prices after paying sky-high taxes. The GDP can go only one way. Down.

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