Wednesday, January 08, 2025

Possibilities are bright.

"The crisis facing multilateralism has been years in the making.'' Reforming the UN is critical because, "Historically, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the P5) - the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom - have been reluctant to support meaningful reforms to the multilateral system. These powers built the current world order and have a vested interest in maintaining it," wrote Kanica Rakhra. The US is ranked the richest and the most powerful country in the world, followed by China, Russia, the UK and Germany, with tiny Israel coming in at number 10. "As of November 2024, India ranks 12th on the list of most powerful countries." Forbes. Naturally, what the US President says has a lot of weight. Although Donald Trump will not be sworn in till the 20th of January (NDTV), he has been "sending shock waves around the world (DH). Donald Trump has said "his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as he lamented the killing of people in the conflict." ET. Ending the Ukraine war should be relatively easier as all President Putin wants is that Ukraine should not join NATO. Trump said "he sympathized with the Russian position that Ukraine should not be part of NATO," and "blamed outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden for allegedly changing the US position on NATO membership for Ukraine." The war in the Middle East will be much more difficult to end. Trump has promised "there would be 'hell to pay' in the Middle East if hostages held in the Gaza Strip were not released prior to his Jan 20 inauguration." "Around half of the 101 foreign and Israeli hostages still held incommunicado in Gaza are believed to be alive." Reuters. This war could also end, mainly because Iran, the supporter and supplier of Hamas, has weakened very much. "Iran's economy has already been crippled by a mix of bad management, corruption and existing sanctions." "Iran's currency - a bellwether of economic sentiment - ended 2024 at a record low of 821,500 rials to the dollar, down 40% from where it started the year." Mint. It has fallen from an official rate of 42,000 in 2020 to 767,550 in 2024 in both the grey and the official markets. wikipedia. Exploding pagers and walkie talkies killed at least 32 people and injured thousands of Hezbollah operatives in September (BBC) followed by the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in a heavily fortified bunker located over 60 feet underground in southern Beirut (NDTV) has severely depleted Hezbollah. This frightened Iran so much that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was moved to a secure location, meaning he is in hiding. Reuters. "In a speech last week, Iran's top general in Syria said the Islamic Republic was 'defeated very badly' by the fall of Syria's Bashar Al Assad." Times of Israel. "I would not be surprised to see the Iranians turn to Russian President Putin to broker an agreement with Trump." "Though it may seem counterintuitive, there is a chance that the region could become more stable in the coming year," wrote Dennis Ross. If there is a change of regime in Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis will be rendered highly debilitated, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea will become peaceful, sanctions on Iran may be lifted, oil will flow and the global economy will boom. Can Trump do it? We hope.  

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