Worry about trade and migrants. Not the deep state.

The annual Indian circus, the Union Budget, will be exposed by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February 2025 and is "expected to announce innovative measures and financing solutions to strengthen infrastructure, agriculture, MSMEs and other key sectors.., according to a report by the State Bank of India." Since loans are expensive the government will announce alternative methods of raising money. Which means she will either raise tariffs on imports and/or heap more taxes on the middle class. "Market research agency NielsenIQ has found that rural demand has risen at the rate of 6% in the second quarter compared to only 2.8% for urban segments," wrote Sushma Ramachandran. Oil prices may go up, President Trump may impose tariffs, but the biggest hurdle is that, "Despite claims that much has been done to remove regulatory cholesterol, investors continue to find red tape enmeshing new projects. The result is that smaller countries, like Vietnam and Indonesia, with less bureaucracy are attracting higher investments." DH. In setting up a new business, "At every step of dealing with the petty bureaucracy, some money needs to change hands to speed up the process." "All told, 19% of a $2.3 million factory in India is an extra burden on governance - or lack of it - that doesn't exist in Thailand," agreed Andy Mukherjee. "Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in urban areas among persons of age 15 years and above has increased from 49.3% during July-September, 2023 to 50.4% in July - September, 2024." And, the unemployment rate has decreased from 6.6% to 6.4% over the same period. pib.gov.in. So, all is bliss? Not quite. "Average earnings for self-employed workers went down by Rs 7 per day from Rs 324 per day in 2017-18 to Rs 317 per day in 2023-24. Average earnings for the salaried workers went down from Rs 497 per day in 2017-18 to Rs 492 in 2023-24." Worse, "The entire landscape of the workforce is changing with increasing shares of self-employed workers (from 52% to 58% over the seven-year period) and shrinking shares of of the salaried class (from 24% to 23% over the seven-year period)," wrote Ghatak, Jha and Singh. "Nearly 18,000 illegal immigrants from India are likely to be repatriated by the new administration," out of an "estimated 725,000 undocumented Indians in the US," wrote Bharat Bhushan. "In 2022 alone, Indian immigrants in the US contributed a staggering $12 billion in remittances, a crucial source of income for families back home." Sudden stoppage of this income could cause great inconvenience to families and local economies. Worse, "The sudden return of a large number of skilled workers to India, without adequate opportunities for reintegration into the labor market, could exacerbate unemployment and underemployment." FPJ. On top of all that, "Is America's deep state out to destabilize India? The question is so ludicrous that it deserves an outright dismissal," wrote Prof Neeraj Kaushal. The lady seems unaware of suspected, denied but widely believed, CIA sponsored assassinations of Patrice Lumumba of the Democratic Republic of Congo  (wikipedia) and of King Faisal bin Musaid Al Saud of Saudi Arabia (wikipedia). Failed attempts are on record (wikipedia). The good news is that Trump has "designs on the size and effectiveness of our sprawling government. Nowhere are those concerns greater than among those intelligence professionals occupying what Trump disparagingly calls 'the deep state'." Atlantic Council. We need to worry about trade and migrants. Ignore the deep state.