Friday, January 31, 2025

Not working for Indians.

"The Economic Survey 2024-25 suggested that India will also need to create 7.85 million new non-farm jobs annually till 2030, achieve 100% literacy, develop the quality of our educational institutions, and develop high-quality, future-ready infrastructure at scale and speed." ET. But why only till 2030? When, "As India became the most populous country in the world, UN projections estimate that the country's population is expected to grow for the next three decades after which it will begin declining." Though, "India has achieved the replacement level of fertility but the population will grow due to momentum phenomenon." NDTV. Ominously, "India needs to increase the relatively low participation of its citizens in labor markets and sustain fast productivity growth as the country has just 33 years until it is as 'old' as advanced economies, McKinsey Global Institute said in its report." ET. Comparing the Periodic Labor Force Survey of 2020-21 with that of 2023-24, P Baruah & DL Wankhar find a rise in long-term unemployment. While the numbers of men unemployed for 6-12 months and less than 6 months have fallen, the number of men unemployed for 1-2 years has jumped from 23.9% to 30.9%. The number unemployed for 2-3 years and more than 3 years have also increased. The number of women unemployed for more than 2 years has jumped from 10.7% to 16.3%." DH. On the other hand, more than 45% of Indian graduates are not fit to be employed as the Global Employability Test (GET) showed that 54.81% of graduates are employable. ET. Unfortunately, the illegal escape routes from the humiliation of unemployment are closing down rapidly. "The 'donkey route' refers not to a specific route, but to a circuitous, often perilous multi-hop journey that migrants take to reach Western countries." HT. "In 2023, a record 96,917 Indians were caught or deported while attempting to cross into the United States illegally." President Donald Trump has passed executive orders to halt illegal migrants, calling it "forms of invasion". ET. An estimated 725,000 Indians are living illegally in the US (ET) who must be living in fear of being caught in the dragnet, as "More than 3,500 undocumented migrants have been arrested since Trump returned to the White House," prompting "some migrants to skip work or keep their children home from school." (BBC). Canada is also throwing Indians out. "According to data of removals by citizenship provided to the Hindustan Times the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), the number of Indians who were made to leave the country in 2024 was 1,932, a record high." "US President Donald Trump's announcement of a crackdown on undocumented migrants has caused anxiety among parents in Haryana, who paid Rs 4-5 million to send their children to the US via the 'donkey route'," as "the Trump administration has officially taken up the matter with its counterpart in India of deporting around 18,000 Indian nationals back to the country." HT. Most of the illegal migrants from India are young men from Punjab and Gujarat, which raises questions about the Gujarat model of development touted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote Mihir Sharma. Still India should facilitate deportations to preserve the status of Indians who have migrated legally because India received a total of $129.1 billion in 2024 from Indians living abroad (The Hindu). This is highly significant because foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 17.9% from $47.2 billion in the first eight months of FY24 to $55.6 billion in the same period of FY25. The Hindu. FDI less than half of remittances. Unemployment in India. Indians to be deported. Remittances could drop. Gujarat model cracking. Try donkey route again?      

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