What will they do if people refuse to move?

 "Some of India's top business chiefs exuded confidence about the strength of the ongoing demand recovery in key sectors and added that the worst is over for the beleaguered economy. Green shoots are visible in macro-economic numbers and high frequency indicators." "An internal Citi report on India's Atmanirbhar plan notes opportunities in industries as diverse as manufacturing, services, solar and chemical industries," and predicts that it could add $160 billion to India's trade by 2024. "The Indian consumer considers the festival season between Navratri and Diwali (17 October to 14 November this year) auspicious for making purchases," wrote Vivek Kaul. Around 30% of sales of two-wheelers and 35-40% of sales of consumer durables take place during this period. "As per the recently released Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, private consumption expenditure was down 26.7%," and "time deposits (or fixed deposits) between March 27 and August 14 jumped by a huge Rs 6.7 trillion" compared to around Rs 3 trillion over the same period last year. Four economists "have argued that a supply shock which affects different sectors of the economy asymmetrically will result in an eventual demand shock". wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Even though India is not an advanced economy it could still suffer a two-stage economic shock, "with a supply shock being followed by a demand shock". "The economic impact of Covid 19 outbreak is progressing from a supply shock to a demand shock as incomes and jobs shrink according to a survey by BofA Securities and it expects demand boosting measures from the government." Another round of stimulus is required, wrote Karan Bhasin. "The intervention should ideally be fiscal as the key to revive aggregate demand in the economy." The government should spend more. "To boost decelerating consumption, government must spend at least Rs 5-6 lakh crore (Rs 5-6 trillion); the funds can be used to boost and strengthen infrastructure," wrote Shobhana Sunbramanian. "In August, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman inaugurated the India Investment Grid website, an online dashboard that lays out information on large scale government infrastructure projects as an aid to investors, lenders, and companies bidding for work," wrote Tanya Thomas. But a study by Amar Kedia of Emkay Global found that of the 1000 projects listed, "less than a fifth were even remotely close to being tendered". "While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been trying to pump liquidity into the system to encourage lending", banks have parked around Rs 7 trillion in the RBI through the reverse repo window, wrote Diva Jain. "For India's economy to turn the page on the covid crisis, the government must overcome its despair of the fiscal deficit." But what if people just save and pay off their debts from stimulus money? After all, you can lock people down by threat of force but you cannot force them to go out and spend. Stuck in a very hard place.

Americans and British cannot come near us.

 "Were crucial minutes of TV footage during passage of the farm bills, as well as the Rajya Sabha rulebook, muted?" asked KTS Tulsi and Tanessa Puri. "The farm bills elicited a cacophony of voices", and "MPs demanded division. This was voiced at 1.09 pm on Rajya Sabha TV. But it never reached the public ear because footage was doctored to such an extent that it was muted." "Rajya Sabha proceedings are governed by the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Council of States." "There is a clear violation of Rule 252 of the Rulebook." "While transparency is a cornerstone of democracy, today's India is cultivating secrecy. Paradoxically, this culture of secrecy is sometimes justified in the name of transparency," wrote Christophe Jaffrelot. In India politicians are for sale, wrote Sadanand Dhume. "In the Rajasthan crisis, newspapers speculate that the going price for a state legislator to switch parties ranges between Rs 15-25 crore, or $2.25 million to $3.75 million, a staggering sum in any country, but particularly so in one whose annual per capita hovers around $2100." Expressing "anguish" at "the growing lack of faith among many Indians in the functioning of the Supreme Court (SC)" and "a wider degradation of Indian democracy", historian Ramachandra Guha wrote, "Other (and possibly more serious) manifestations of this degradation are the politicisation of the civil service and the police; the creation of a cult of personality; the intimidation of the media; the use of tax and investigative agencies to harass and intimidate independent voices; the refusal to do away with repressive colonial era laws and instead the desire to strengthen them; and, not least, the undermining of Indian federalism by the steady whittling down of the powers of the states by the center." Why do people obey like sheep? Why does no one resign in protest? Because, then they stop being VIPs and lording over citizens, and cannot strut around with security details which are enormous status symbols. Judges have also made themselves into VIPs and consider it below their dignity to mix with the 'great unwashed'. A long list of people resigned from President Donald Trump's government because they did not agree with him. A total of 50 ministers resigned from former UK Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet. Apparently, present UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson cannot afford a nanny for his new born baby and has to pay for his food from Downing Street kitchen. While millions of Indians face starvation and privation, we are proud owners two luxury airplanes at a cost of Rs 46.32 billion each which can fly as fast as Air Force One which carries Trump. Unlimited power and opulence without any accountability. Worth killing for.

Who do the reforms benefit?

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a policy of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan', which means 'mission for self-reliant India'. "India's self-reliance will be based on five pillars -- economy, infrastructure, technology driven system, vibrant demography and demand," he said. This is part of Modi's desire to replace China as a manufacturing power under the 'Make in India' program. "In a short space of time, the obsolete and obstructive frameworks of the past have been dismantled and replaced with a transparent and user-friendly system that is helping drive investment, foster innovation, develop skills, protect IP and build best-in-class manufacturing infrastructure," says the official website. "China continues to be the most important hub of global value chains," wrote Nikita Kwatra. "Even as India's troops are engaged in a tense confrontation with China since April, the share of Chinese imports in India's trade basket has only gone up, despite the rhetoric of 'self-reliance'. China accounted for 14% of total imports in the last fiscal year. So far this year, it has increased to 19%." Self-reliance is not new, wrote Udit Misra. It started with the first Five Year Plan (FYP), with the aim of protecting local industry and reducing dependence on rest of the world. "This push for self-reliance reached its crescendo during the 6th and 7th FYP (1980-1990) when policies of import substitution and license-permit raj ruled the roost." This led to the balance of payments crisis in 1991 when India had to pledge 67 tons of gold to the Bank of England and the Union Bank of Switzerland to pay for imports. "The government has already restarted resorting to bans and handing out import licenses." The government passed a raft of laws in the recent monsoon session of parliament, most important of which were changes in how agricultural produce can be sold, company law and labor laws. Parliament was boycotted by the opposition over the farm bills. "The government completely undercut Parliament in its effort to ram through the legislative changes," wrote Mihir Sharma. "Already, opposition-ruled states are refusing to implement the new laws." "If India only reforms when under pressure, then now should be a moment for big changes," wrote Reuben Abraham. "There's an obvious place for the government to start, too: India's failed special economic zones." Taxes are too high, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India must break out of this vicious cycle in which taxes are high, consumer demand is low, investment and job creation are constrained, and wage incomes are insufficient to boost purchasing power at the bottom of the pyramid." Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani seem to be the only businessmen who are thriving in this coronavirus recession. That is bad because, "Like in South Korea, people may one day realize how a few conglomerates are sapping the entrepreneurial energy of everyone else." Crony capitalism, high taxes, license-permit raj, nothing changes. Same to same, as we Indians say. 

Why aren't they satisfied?

 "The Finance Ministry on Saturday said the month of September has exhibited 'credible signs' of normalcy and the government is not averse to taking any further measures to ameliorate the suffering of people." Even though tax collections are down, the government provided direct financial assistance of Rs 689.21 billion to 420 million people, Rs 309.52 billion to 206.5 million women through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT), Rs 49.87 billion to 18.2 million construction workers, free food grains to 200 million households, and Rs 2.18 trillion to State Governments as Devolution of Share of Taxes. "State Bank of India (SBI) and Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) said consumer demand and liquidity have been improving over sequential quarters, sounding a note of cheer." "India's external account is seeing its best year since the balance of payments crisis (BOP) crisis in 1991 as Covid induced shutdown slowed import demand from the manufacturing sector while the services sector performed well; that funded imports without the use of capital flows." In the April-June quarter, India had a trade deficit in goods of $10 billion because, though exports fell by one-third, imports fell by 50%, wrote SA Aiyer. "This reflected not economic strength but an economy imploding so much faster than others that India's demand for imports fell faster than foreign demand for Indian exports." According to economic teaching "a current account surplus is exactly equal to the surplus of national savings over investment". "Today, India is investing so little that it has a savings surplus." "After touching a lifetime high in the previous week, the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $3.017 billion to $542.021 billion in the week ended September 25, RBI data showed on Friday." "Turning the tide after six months of contraction and in step with other economic indicators, exports grew 5.27 percent in September." "Imports declined 19.60 percent at $30.31 billion in September against $37.69 billion in the same period in 2019-20." That is bad news for a growing economy, wrote Udit Misra. Car sales were up, Maruti jumping by 34%, the coming festival season may increase demand further, demand for petrol was up 2%, but diesel demand was down, and the Nikkei Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 56.8 in September from 52.0 in August. However, the rate of improvement seems to be stagnating. Though India saw the sharpest decline in economic output in the April-June quarter, "It was also one of the very few countries that saw inflation climb in the same period," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "An emerging market economy is structurally different from an advanced economy, but it is still worth considering the possibility of of a two-stage economic shock in India, with a supply shock being followed by a demand shock." Around "Rs 7 trillion worth of daily liquidity lie unutilized with RBI," wrote Diva Jain. The government should borrow this money and use it for public investments. The Finance Ministry has already given a long list of spending. So, why are people complaining?    

So what's new? Why the indignation?

Another gang rape in India, this time in Hathras in Uttar Pradesh (UP), followed by the usual attempts to cover up using police brutality. The first attempt of the administration is to try and hush things up by terrorising the family of the victim and make them change their story if possible. To that end, the entire village was barricaded by the police, the family was forbidden from speaking to anyone and journalists and opposition politicians, trying to score political points from the brutalized dead woman, were roughed up. The village has been placed under curfew but a boy apparently escaped through a tortuous route and claimed that the police had seized the family's phones, had sealed up the house so that no one could talk to journalists and had kicked the father of the victim in the chest. One officer tried to discredit the victim's story of rape and the police cremated the girl's body in the dead of night without permission or presence of the family. The police in UP are outlaws, said an editorial in The Indian Express. "The lines between those whose responsibility it is to uphold the law and those who break it have been blurring dangerously in UP. Here, the police routinely invites allegations of conducting itself as an arm of ruling party, and not the state." Are the police really a bunch of thugs? "Probably the single biggest problem facing the police is shortage of personnel," wrote Prof Kanti Bajpai. "The UP police is at roughly 50% of sanctioned strength, both at officer and constable level." They are poorly trained, work 14-18 hours a day, often without holidays, and in terrible conditions. The response of the UP government has been to recruit a Mumbai-based public relations firm Concept PR to issue a denial of cover up and a veiled warning to journalists to stay away. At last, unable to contain the international attention, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has invited the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to investigate. UP is perhaps following the example set by the Central government in Delhi when police beat up teachers and students of Jawaharlal Nehru Unviersity (JNU) protesting against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). "Indian police 'committed serious human rights violations' during deadly religious riots in Delhi earlier this year, Amnesty International alleges." Amnesty International has been duly punished and forced to get out of India. The present reaction of UP police is almost a replica of what happened in Unnao in UP in 2017 when a 17 year old girl was raped by the local politician. Politicians have no interest in reforming the police despite a landmark Supreme Court judgement in 2006, wrote former police officer Prakash Singh. Police are there to keep us in check so that we obey Dear Leader without question. As well as his lackeys.    

Can Dharma be forced on the rich?

 "The problem facing most people, especially the young, is not superstars like Warren Buffett are leaving them behind. It is that they are being held behind by stagnant investment and wages, owing to the simple fact that the wealthy get wealthier almost in their sleep, for reasons that have nothing to do with effort, entrepreneurship, or parsimony," wrote Prof Vanis Varoufakis. "Nothing retards productivity and depresses employment as efficiently as exorbitant market power." "Today, three mega firms, Blackrock, Vanguard, and State Street, own at least 40% of all American public companies and nearly 90% of those listed on the New York Stock Exchange." Varoufakis recommends that central banks should fund only public investment in public goods, giant companies like Amazon and Facebook must be broken up, and 10% of shares must be deposited in a "social equity fund to fund a universal basic dividend". The concept of a universal basic income (UBI) has been discussed for a long time. An experiment in UBI was tried in Finland in 2017, where 2,000 unemployed people were paid 560 euros per month instead of some social benefits. It failed, probably because these people were receiving 8,600 euros as social security per month to start with and saw little benefit from  the scheme. "The largest corporations have reached the pinnacle because of the toil of its employees, who are sold the idea of corporate slavery as a prerequisite for success," wrote Prof Kapoor and Sinha. Capitalism underpinned by Dharma will result in, "A conscientious capitalistic order where actions of businesses not only benefit themselves but also the society is more sustainable and equitable system." "The hope is the waves of stimulus doled out by governments and central banks should eventually buoy economies and spark a revival in hiring," wrote Rockeman and Ward. "The risk is that the pandemic is inflicting a 'reallocation shock' in which firms and even entire sectors suffer lasting damage." "The economic concept of a welfare state is quite different from how the term is politically used," wrote Puja Mehra. "For instance, the welfare state may tax one section of the population to finance income support payments to a chosen set of people." "The welfare state attracts new clients and politicians begin to add new programs. The number of people living off government exceeds the number of taxpayers who finance the government." Since coming to power Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a large number of social schemes, in addition to the ones already operating from previous governments. Should governments accumulate huge debts to stimulate economies hit by the pandemic? asked Prof Raghuram Rajan. "Even with higher taxes on the rich -- a policy that will meet with intense opposition -- a large share of the accumulated debt will be passed on to future generations." Governments have usurped over $100 billion from sovereign wealth funds, which leaves less cushion for future generations, reported Reuters. Reduce wealth of the rich to reduce inequality. But will that create jobs? 

The irresistible whisper of opportunities.

 With US presidential election on 3 November, there seems to be a divide in opinion among Indians, with 56% of the public having a positive opinion on President Donald Trump, while journalists like Chidanand Rajghatta consistently write negative articles about him. It maybe dependent on class. "A tighter work visa regime has been one of the topmost priorities of the administration of President Donald Trump ever since he took office."  "Under a recently proposed move, Trump administration wants to limit the duration of visas issued to students, researchers and journalists as it fears that a liberal visa regime threatens national security." On the other hand, "Numerous youngsters, a majority of them from Punjab and Haryana, are either planning to embark on a similar journey, or are already on some stage of transportation." "For these young men and women the American dream kicks in when their job hunts go nowhere and their farm produce fails to fetch a a good price. It sets them on a dangerous path where they have to dodge smugglers and drug cartels, and risk poisonous snake bites while groping their way through jungles that are known to house incurable, deadly diseases." All classes of Indians want to sneak into the US, middle and upper classes through colleges, financed by parents, or through job visas, which they try to convert into resident visas by hanging on long enough, while poorer classes take their chances through jungles and deserts. Hence the difference in opinion. Prof Sumit Ganguly thinks that Joe Biden will be better for India because, "For decades he had not only served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but had, on more than one occasion, served as its chair." He does not mention if Biden sponsored any bills to help India or the occasions he took India's side against Pakistan or China. The Biden campaign has framed India's policy on Kashmir as anti-Muslim, without mentioning attacks on Indian security forces or the ethnic cleansing of Kashimiri Pandits by the same Muslims. Ganguly completely forgets that Biden was Vice President to Barack Obama for 8 years. In 2015, Obama invited himself as guest on India's Republic Day and forced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to go easy on Pakistan, wrote Prof Brahma Chellaney. He supplied F16 fighter jets to Pakistan along with smart bombs and other weapons. Pakistan used these planes to shoot down Indian planes over Kashmir and insisted it will do so again. So why this cacophony against Trump? Because, "Ivy League institutions received $113.4 million in donations from Hanbun, a propaganda arm of the Chinese government, between 2012 and 2018," but "reported about $15.4 million," wrote VA Nageswaran. "Five big US banks had a combined $70.8 billion of exposure to China in 2019," and "the National Basketball Association stood to lose about $400 million on account of American rift with China". The increasing partnership between China and Pakistan is an existential threat to India, wrote Shalini Chawla. Biden could be the catalyst. Surely, people should put nation before self? Sadly, money talks. Irresistible, it seems. 

How can you defend egregious violence?

 The two basic principles of taxes are, "that governments should never make tax changes with retrospective effect", and two, "tax regimes must be stable in order to attract foreign (or even domestic) investment", wrote R Jagannathan. Acknowledging that "the Indian taxman has a tendency to harass taxpayers and is known to make large demands on flimsy grounds", he defends the government's $2 billion tax demand in the Vodafone case which India lost in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague recently. Vodafone took advantage of a loophole in the law to avoid paying a withholding tax on its purchase of Hutchison Essar telecom company in 2007. Tax laws should be simple and clear and not made complex intentionally to harass taxpayers. For example telecom companies in India have to pay tax on Adjusted Gross Revenue, which means income even from sources not related to telecom. Vodafone idea owes Rs 574.54 billion. Even prospective taxes have retrospective effect. For example, "if a government decides to impose a wealth tax from the current year, the tax will not be on wealth accumulated prospectively. It will apply retrospectively." In India rules are changed suddenly to catch people and businesses unawares and turn legitimate activities illegal. Walmart bought Flipkart for $16 billion in May 2018, on which it paid withholding tax of Rs 74.39 billion initially, and then a further Rs 100 billion in September. Soon after, the government suddenly changed rules on ecommerce putting the company at a disadvantage. When tax laws are changed people and businesses should be given time to make changes in their investments so as to minimise their losses but the government tries wring as much as possible out of taxpayers by catching them unawares. When taxes were increased on long term capital gains in 2018, people were not given time to book profits at the old rates. This makes the government look guilty of sleazy extortion. Not just taxes. Law enforcement agencies are used to settle scores and stifle any criticism, however legitimate. "How did an investigation of an apparent suicide by a star morph into a hunt for all drug users in Bollywood, after taking a brief detour into a cloddish probe into nepotism in the Hindi film industry?" asked The Indian Express. "The state uses investigations, evidence, chargesheets as pretexts for establishing a narrative dominance and to intimidate. It is not interested in guilt or innocence. It is interested in demonstrating that it can destroy your life with impunity," wrote Pratap Bhany Mehta. False cases are being brought against those accused of riots in Delhi in February. "In such cases the normal language of a chargesheet under UAPA is replaced by storytelling, innuendo, presumption, extrapolation, stretching of the narrative and downright lying," wrote Colin Gonsalves. Jagannathan tries to defend the government. We know better.      

Is it likely to be an embarrassment of riches?

 "Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers of government debt after six months of selling, anticipating that the central bank will try to soften long term bond yields to support the government's massive borrowing program," wrote Ghosh and Sonavane. "Experts attributed the buying to the Reserve Bank's recent moves to keep long term bond yields from spiking ahead of the coming borrowing calendar, which is likely to increase significantly from the preceding years given the current economic scenario." Since yields are inversely related to prices of bonds, FIIs maybe expecting prices to rise as the Reserve Bank (RBI) pushes yields down by refusing to sell if bids price the bonds below certain price. In a recent auction the RBI accepted bids for only Rs 1.25 billion at yields of 6%. At the same time the rupee is becoming stronger which means FIIs will gain in exchange rate if they sell. "Dollar buying intervention by the RBI in recent months has made the rupee one of the worst-performing Asian currencies in 2020, despite massive dollar inflows into stock markets and for corporate fundraising," wrote Reuters. India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to a record high of $544.038 billion during the week ended 18 September. "Reserves will provide a level of confidence to markets that a country can meet its external obligations, demonstrate the backing of domestic currency by external assets, assist the government in meeting its foreign exchange needs and external debt obligations and maintain a reserve for national disasters or emergencies."  The rupee is rising because of inflows of dollars and the RBI has been buying dollars to try and stop the rupee from appreciating too high and too quickly. However, buying dollars releases a flood of rupees into the market which the RBI has to neutralize by selling bonds in open market operations (OMO). Selling too many bonds lowers their price and raises yields so the RBI resorted to 'operation twist,  buying long-term bonds, which increases their price and brings down yields, while selling short-term bonds. Due to the coronavirus, emerging market economies will incur heavy fiscal load, will see a rise in public debt and interest burden and some will have to repair their banks, wrote Andy Mukherjee. India will suffer all three problems, plus a shambolic goods and services tax (GST) problem, but the bond market loves it. "The market is pleased because it is getting concessions from panicky authorities." Foreigners pouring money into India. Could it be embarrassing?

We may not see it, but we can feel the cosh.

 Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told state governments to borrow to make up a shortfall of Rs 2.35 trillion in goods and services tax (GST) compensation. States ruled by opposition parties want the Center to borrow and pay them their dues. Not only has the Central government refused to honor its commitment to compensate states for any shortfall in GST collections, it has imposed conditions under which states will be allowed to borrow, perhaps forgetting that governments in the states in India are elected by people who live in those states. "It is not the first time, and neither will it be the last time that the Center and states have differed," wrote Anil Padmanabhan. "Over the last few weeks, it (Center) has set in motion a fundamental reset in the existing paradigm for education, harvest, sale and storage of agriculture produce, the public distribution system and the bureaucracy. All these subjects also fall under the purview of the states." "Following the furor in the upper house of Parliament on September 20, eight opposition MPs were suspended from the house, during which period the Center pushed through seven bills." So there are seven new laws to govern citizens without any debate, discussion or amendment on how they will affect our lives. While blaming an "Act of God" for its inability to pay its dues, "The government wrongly retained Rs 47,272 crore of goods and services tax (GST) compensation in the Consolidated Fund of India in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and used it for other purposes, the Comptroller Auditor General (CAG) said in its audit report of government accounts." The government can ride roughshod over citizens and states but foreigners are another matter. The tax department has just lost its claim of Rs 200 billion in taxes against Vodafone at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. India will also have to pay penalties and costs. The Income Tax department is to seek the Attorney General's opinion on whether it should appeal to the Singapore based appellate tribunal. If they do and lose again they should be made to pay all costs and penalties, not the taxpayer, from their own pockets for their obstinacy. Using a retroactive tax demand law enacted by the previous government, the present government demanded $4.3 billion from Cairn Energy in 2016. "After Cairn disputed the levy, New Delhi expropriated its shares in Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal's Vedanta Ltd, into which Cairn had merged the India unit. The government pocketed the dividend and then sold the stock," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Transparency is a cornerstone of democracy, today's India is cultivating secrecy. Paradoxically, this culture of secrecy is sometimes justified in the name of transparency," wrote Christophe Jaffrelot. We can see. But, can do nothing. That's transparent.   

Victory before election. Why should he miss the chance?

 US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg died on 18 September from metastatic pancreatic cancer at the age of 87 years. She was diagnosed with colon cancer in 1999. Doctors discovered pancreatic cancer at follow up examination a decade later. In 2018, she underwent lobectomy for lung cancer which was discovered during treatment for broken ribs after a fall in her chambers in 2018. She is famous for being a feminist and consistently dissenting with other judges over rights of women, so that she became a liberal icon. Till now the US Supreme Court has been deemed to have a 5-4 majority in favor of conservatives over liberals, depending on who was appointed by Republican or Democrat president. Though Chief Justice John Roberts was appointed by President George W Bush he has voted with liberals on Obamacare, deportation of DREAMers and on abortion, tilting the balance in favor of liberals. With US presidential election on 3 November, President Donald Trump has nominated another conservative, 48-year old Amy Coney Barrett  who, if confirmed by the Senate, will change the balance of the Court to 6-3 in favor of conservatives. Liberals are enraged that Republicans plan to go ahead with confirmation of Barrett when they blocked appointment of Merrick Garland who was nominated by Barack Obama when conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died suddenly in 2016. Before her death Ginsberg is supposed to have told her granddaughter, "It is my most fervent wish that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed." This is breathtaking in its arrogance, a blatant interference in politics and an attempt to reduce the power of the Senate. Especially since she supported Obama's right to appoint Garland in 2016, saying, "The president is elected for four years not three years, so the power he has in year three continues into year four." The last time the Senate confirmed a Supreme Court judge in election year was in 1940, and before that in 1932 and in 1916, wrote Chad Pergram, who thinks the Republicans have the numbers to confirm Barrett. Democrats are incensed at, what they see as, Republican hypocrisy when they refused to confirm Garland in an election year in 2016. The difference is that Obama was a lame duck in 2016, because he could not stand again, whereas Trump is up for re-election. Opinion polls are already giving the election to Democrat candidate Joe Biden, but "There is growing suspicion that Trump supporters are not divulging their preferences to pollsters." Just wearing a hat saying Make America Great Again (MAGA) can get one killed. The memory of 2000 when the Supreme Court divided 5-4 to decide the State of Florida, and the election, in favor of George W Bush, by just 537 votes, the infamous 'hanging chads', out of 6 million cast, must be seared in the minds of Democrats. A 6-3 Supreme Court provides insurance for Republicans and a nightmare for Democrats. Even if Trump loses he will have left a Supreme Court in his image. As judges are for life, as Ginsberg proved, this could be for a generation. Trump wins even if he loses. The irony. 

Hysteresis of recession of self-reliance.

 "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for a self-reliant India, i.e. 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' is an important initiative." According to director-communications department at the IMF Gerry Rice "the economic package announced under this self-reliant initiative" "has supported Indian economy", but to integrate India in the global value chain, "improving the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy is critical". But, self reliance and "efficiency and competitiveness" are mutually contradictory. "For starters, import substitution industrialisation (ISI), which entails progressive replacement of imports by domestic production, is precisely the strategy we pursued until 1991," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. In 1991, India faced a balance of payment crisis and survived by pledging 67 tons of gold as collateral to raise $600 million. ISI "encourages domestic production through tariffs and output subsidies", resulting in growth of "small-scale firms focused on making quick profits with no plans to become exporters." "Five of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News gained last month, while two were unchanged and one deteriorated. This kept the needle on a dial measuring so-called animal spirits steady at four," wrote Anirban Nag. The rate of coronavirus infection in India is the same as that in Brazil, but market analysts have continued to upgrade Brazil's growth prospects while continuing to downgrade that of India, said Jehangir Aziz. Because Brazil provided income support to poor families. "The economic impact of Covid-19 outbreak is progressing from a supply shock, to a demand shock as incomes and jobs shrink according to a survey by BofA Securities and it expects demand boosting measures from the government." Which means more spending. Will the government have Rs 800 billion to buy and distribute coronavirus vaccine to all the people, asked CEO of Serum Institute Adar Poonawalla. "British telco Vodafone Grouup Plc won a decade-long battle against the Indian tax department's demand of Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion) from its entry into the country in 2007, said people with knowledge of the matter." "The World Bank expects remittances to South Asia will drop 22% this year", because of global economic contraction due to the virus. Money is so tight that"The government wrongly retained Rs 47,272 crore (Rs 472.72 billion) of goods and services tax (GST) compensation in the Consolidated Fund of India in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and used it for other purposes, the Comptroller Auditor General (CAG) said in its report of government accounts." Without government spending and reforms there is a danger of "strong and pervasive 'hysteresis' effects", wrote Prof Vivek Dahejia. Hysteresis means a persistence of the present economic recession well into the future. Time to get hysterical?  

Does X Jinping really want to meet his old pals?

 "Xi (Jinping) is attempting to implement a modern version of the tributary system that Chinese emperors used to establish authority over vassal states: submit to the emperor, and reap the benefits of peace and trade with the empire," wrote Prof Brahma Chellaney. Xi would probably love to sit on a throne and wear a crown. "Hailing 'mighty uncle Xi', Chinese people have taken to social media using an old imperial term to welcome President Xi Jinping's naming by the Communist Party as its 'core', despite party efforts to limit his cult of personality," reported Reuters.  Using a fictitious nine-dash line China has claimed sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. The US has rejected China's claims, but the other nations bordering the South China Sea, such as Vietnam and Philippines, are too small to challenge the naval strength of China. In June, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand fighting with Chinese troops in Ladakh. Many Chinese soldiers were killed by Indians. "Xi was so embarrassed by this outcome that, whereas India honored its 20 fallen as martyrs, China refuses to admit the precise death toll." In a surprise move, "Indian Army has occupied heights overlooking Chinese Army positions at Finger 4 along Pangong Lake." Despite peace talks India has consolidated its positions and has deployed fighter jets along the border. "If that were not humiliating enough, India eagerly noted that the Special Frontier Force (SFF) that spearheaded the operation comprises Tibetan refugees." Xi Jinping's aggressive attack on India 'unexpectedly flopped', wrote US magazine Newsweek. "China is pushing growing numbers of Tibetan rural laborers off the land and into recently built military-style training centers where they are turned into factory workers, mirroring a program in the Western Xinjiang region that rights group have branded coercive labor," reported Reuters. The China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) in the US reported that "between 2012 and 2018, China carried out multiple cyber attacks" on Indian satellite communications, "even as the Indian Space Research Organisation maintains that its systems have not been compromised so far". An investigation by The Indian Express revealed that Zhenhua Data Information Technology Co based in Shenzhen in China was monitoring Indian  politicians, officials, judges and leading personalities using Artificial Intelligence and stored data on Overseas Key Information Database. The same company was also tracking at least 35,000 Australians and 50,000 Americans. Perhaps, in a sign of growing opposition, Xi carried our another purge of Communist Party and government officials. Xi must know how a former president Liu Shaoqi was humiliated and tortured after losing power. Former pal Bo Xilai is waiting for him. What a reunion it will be.

Can they fall any lower?

In a comparison between slums in Patna in Bihar, and in Bengaluru in Karnataka, Downs-Tipper and Rains found that, while there were no cases in Patna, "There are contrasting livelihood situations, with an uptrend in Bengaluru and creeping hopelessness in Patna." "The average slum household has 4.4 members in Bengaluru and 6.4 members in Patna, and has, respectively, 1.9 and 1.7 earning members." That maybe because, at 26.8%, Bihar has the highest rate of illiteracy in women and the highest fertility rate in India at 3.2%. Naturally, "The average monthly income of a slum household was more than Rs 23,000 in Bengaluru and just about Rs 17,000 in Patna." "Less well off to begin with, Patna's slum residents were hit harder economically." "Because of unrelenting hardship they have faced, an overwhelming majority in Patna's slums expect that three months, or even six months, from now things will still be worse than before the pandemic." That is bad news because assembly elections are expected to be held in Bihar by the middle of October. At present the government in Bihar is formed by Janata Dal (United) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Why don't they dish out largesse as politicians do before elections? The Bihar government has no money, partly because Kumar promised prohibition of alcohol to get votes in 2015 election. Whenever there is prohibition it is an invitation to smugglers to make money. Men die from drinking locally brewed alcohol from dubious sources. Following the lockdown in March at least 1.5 million migrants returned home to Bihar. "The state government has been losing in upward of Rs 4,000 crore (Rs 40 billion) annually since the alcohol ban in the state since 2016," wrote Prof Guru Prakash. That is over Rs 200 billion in lost revenue in 5 years. "The already burdened judiciary in the state has to deal with the additional 200,000 prohibition related matters. The crime rate has grown manifold contrary to the popular narrative that the ban has contributed towards peace and stability." So, less tax collection and greater spending on policing and prison population. Of course, Modi did announce a fisheries scheme over the next 4-5 years but how they will cultivate fish in the middle of slums is not clear. If there is no money you have to divert people's attention. A young actor from Bihar committed suicide in his flat in Mumbai in June. Two of his friends were sharing the flat and they did not notice anything untoward and his room was locked from inside. Despite that, first the Enforcement Directorate (ED), then the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and now the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) have been hounding a young Bengali actress called Rhea Chakraborty for over two months. Congress Party activists in Bengal have been protesting against this intimidation of Rhea. Assembly election in Bengal is to be held by April-May 2021. Will the harassment of Rhea on frivolous charges be a reason for assaults on Biharis in Bengal remains to be seen. Win election but lose the nation. We can only mourn. 

Can they stop interfering and leave them alone?

Four days back the parliament passed two bills to reform agriculture, which will allow farmers to sell their produce directly to customers and to enter into long term contracts with large companies which manufacture processed food products. The government hopes that these changes will encourage private investment in agriculture which will increase farmers' incomes and reduce wastage by setting up cold chains. At present farmers are forced to sell their produce through Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMC), known mandis in Hindi, at prices fixed by middlemen. Reforms are essential because, "One, Indian agriculture is highly unremunerative. Two, it has been heavily regulated by the government and protected from the free play of market forces," wrote Misra and Iqbal. The result is that about 55% of Indians are dependent on agriculture but it accounts for only 17% of gross value added (GVA) and 86% of farms are between 1-2 hectares, which is too small to sustain a family, so most farmers are heavily indebted. So why are farmers in Punjab and Haryana protesting when they should be happy to be rid of the shackles? Because of government guarantee of minimum support price (MSP) which is a minimum floor price on 22 crops, but mainly on wheat and rice, over 80% of which goes to just two states, Punjab and Haryana. Former Union Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussein said, "Punjab and Haryana have been major procuring states where 80-90% of farmers can realise MSP." Prime Minister Narendra Modi said it is a '"watershed moment", while the opposition says they will be "death warrant" for farmers. "The government procurement system acts as a safety cushion, and adds to the bargaining power of the farmer," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Only when government procurement is done, that too through the mandi, does the farmer get full price." Punjab levies mandi tax at 8.5% of total value and "crucially depends on mandi tax revenue, which is above and outside the GST". The government "blatantly crafted" these bills without consulting farmers "to fill the pockets of capitalist cronies of the BJP at the cost of the poor farmers", wrote Chief Minister of Punjab Amarinder Singh. These are "transformative reforms" and "opposition parties are resorting to misinformation and fear- mongering to score political points", wrote Union Minister Hardeep S Puri. "The repercussions will reverberate across the world's second-most populous country" wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Narendra Modi has gambled big before, with some disastrous results. It's asking a lot of people in rural India to trust him again." Can the government stop itself from interfering if prices shoot up due to drought or flood? When onion prices rose recently the government banned exports and released buffer stocks to bring down prices, wrote Roshan Kishore. Which means farmers are prevented from making windfall profits but not from windfall losses. A private market can operate only if politicians stop interfering. Will they? Especially, if an election is coming?  

If it works for them, why should they change?

"India has the potential to achieve a high GDP growth rate of around 10 percent and be a $10 trillion economy in the next 12 to 15 years, HUL CMD Sanjiv Mehta said on Monday." "There is very clear anecdotal evidence of growth rate in staples in urban India slowing down, which could be a very clear pointer that the urban poor are feeling the stress." "We should not let that happen -- we should definitely take the risk of being aggressive with spending." Hindustan Unilever is a large consumer goods company with sales of around Rs 350 billion. "In the last three decades, we have achieved about 6 to 6.5 percent on an average GDP growth rate", so we have to "dream big, think big and act big". Mehta is talking about real GDP growth which was 3.1% in the January to March quarter of 2020 and 4.2% in financial year 2019-20. Real GDP is calculated by adjusting nominal GDP for inflation according to prices in a base year. Since nominal GDP is at current prices it is larger and its growth rate is higher. Real GDP in India is calculated at 2011-12 prices and grew at 4.18% in 2019-20 while nominal GDP grew at 7.21%. India's GDP was about $2.9 trillion in 2019 according to World Bank data. Unfortunately, it contracted by 23.9% in the April to June quarter, which is the first quarter of financial year 2019-20 and is predicted to shrink by 14.8% in the entire year by Goldman Sachs, which will take it to around $2.5 trillion. Assuming a real GDP of $3 trillion it will take a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% to take it to $9.5 trillion in 15 years. Taking average inflation rate of 4%, the nominal GDP will have to grow at over 12% CAGR. Consumer price inflation (CPI) came in at 6.69% in August. Ruchir Sharma does not agree with Mehta that the government should be "aggressive with spending". Because, "we entered this crisis with one of the highest public debts and fiscal deficits in the world, especially in the emerging world", and "we've got to keep in mind that India's inflation is still more sticky compared to other countries in the world, even other developing countries in the world". Ir we try to print (notes) our way out of the crisis we will end up like Turkey, whose economy is in a real mess. "Our big business tycoons are a bigger threat to the growth of a liberal economy than politicians, because they want to do away with competition, harking back to our 'licence raj' days of Ambassador cars," wrote GR Gopinath. Foreign investors are tempted by politicians to invest in India but if rules are changed after they invest they will lose confidence. Crony capitalism is a cozy club of politicians, civil servants and business leaders. Why should they change? 

A fritters economy. If we are lucky.

 "The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) came in at 82.3 for the week ending September 20 from 81.2 a week earlier, recording the second consecutive week of a fresh lockdown high." This was because of a rise in "Google retail and recreation mobility index and the Apple driving index even as workplace mobility worsened". India created 4 million jobs per year before the coronavirus epidemic and the economy is to contract between 3% and 9% this year. So India must grow at 8% to 8.5% and create 90 million non-farm jobs in the next decade, said Shirish Sankhe, Partner at McKinsey and Company. Growth in manufacturing, construction and agriculture have to be substantial. Ruchir Sharma has selected Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Vietnam and Taiwan which fulfill his criteria for emerging the strongest from the pandemic, with Russia as a dark horse. India came a low 13th in 25 of the largest emerging countries in its ability to withstand the effects of the epidemic except that it "is less vulnerable to the forces of deglobalisation". "Narendra Modi says, 'Make in India.' Toyota Motor Corp says, stop treating cars as though they were drugs or alcohol," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India must break out of this vicious cycle in which taxes are high, consumer demand is low, investment and job creation are constrained, and wage incomes are insufficient to boost purchasing power at the bottom of the pyramid." Auto analyst Govind Chellappa suggests stop constant tinkering with taxes and leave the same high taxes for 15 years. That will bring stability to the auto sector and allow companies to develop new products and plan their investments. Advance tax collection jumped to over Rs 1.59 trillion, 25.5% lower than the same period last year, in the second quarter of this financial year, compared to a paltry Rs 117.14 billion in the first quarter which was down 76%. As evidence of widespread tax evasion, the Prime Minister said that 30 million Indians travel abroad every year but only 15 million pay income tax. "Is it possible that India's per capita income is artificially low because millions hide their income," asked Praveen Chakravarty. "No. Even if millions of people hide their incomes from tax authorities, it will be accounted for in India's GDP and per capita income data since they will use this hidden income to eventually spend on goods, real estate, gold and so on." Meanwhile the Modi government is refusing to pay compensation for a fall in goods and services tax collection to the states. "For a government that has otherwise poured money into schemes with considerable largesse, the fiscal response to the crisis was remarkably muted," wrote Prof Vivek Dahejia. Toyota or pakora (fried Indian fritters), asked Andy Mukherjee. Definitely pakora. Maybe half of one.        

Since we are masters, why stop?

 "Aiming to woo the influential Indian-American voters numbering over 2 million, the Trump campaign has released its first video commercial that has short clips from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speeches and US President Donald Trump's historic address in Ahmedabad." According to the US Census Bureau there were 2.65 million Indians living in the US in 2018, up from 1.78 million in 2010. There are also over 500,000 unauthorised Indians estimated to be living in the US illegally. These Indians are an important vote bank in the US, so we should not extrapolate the bonhomie to Indians living here in India. Newly declassified White House tapes reveal President Richard Nixon saying, "They are repulsive it's just easy to be tough with them." National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger's hatred was even more  savage. "They are a scavenging people," "They are superb flatterers Mr President. They are masters at flattery." "They suck up -- their great skill is to suck up to people in key positions," he said omnisciently. Indira Gandhi was the prime minister during Nixon's time and is still remembered for declaring an Emergency in 1975, to suppress opposition to her rule. However, this was only possible because President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed signed the order without question and "Mrs Gandhi's cabinet fell in line without a murmur," wrote Coomi Kapoor. "Mrs Gandhi demonstrated her contempt for parliament by doing away with Question Hour." Using the coronavirus epidemic as an excuse, Modi scrapped Question Hour in the monsoon session of parliament. During the Emergency, "Nine High Courts had the courage to strike down the draconian Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA), as being ultra vires the constitution." Now we have an alphabet soup of tyrannical laws. Under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and National Security Act (NSA) "bail can be denied almost indefinitely", wrote Pankaj Butalia. "Such is the fascination with these 'extraordinary' laws that even the judiciary no longer questions their misuse." Financial institutions are predicting a double digit fall in GDP this financial year as the virus rages uncontrolled despite the severe lockdown which decimated the economy, wrote Anirban Nag. Yet, "A resounding 78 percent of the people surveyed found the performance of PM Modi outstanding/good." Why? "The most adept populist leaders don't only detach the electorate's perception from inconvenient facts, providing an alternative narrative in which they, and they alone, are the stars," wrote Mihir Sharma. It is the politics of 'vishwas', which means 'faith', wrote Pratap Bhanu Mehta. "The elites. including India's most powerful, are latching on to this vishwas because it disguises their own failures." The sucking up is still continuing. We are back to Nixon's time.   

Why not do it directly?

Graeme Wheeler, then Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the first to adopt inflation targeting, said in October 2015 that monetary policy cannot influence long term economic decisions, cannot stimulate increased spending by households or industry and has little effect on long term real interest rate. At best it can influence actual inflation and inflation expectation over the medium term. VA Nageswaran does not agree. "Central banks do not influence almost anything," he wrote. All developed countries target an inflation rate of 2% but the consumer price index rose 1.3% in the year to August in the US, despite promising to keep interest rate near zero till 2023, while in the European Union, inflation rose to a high of 1.7% in January but fell to 0.8% in July 2020, despite a negative interest rate of  - 0.5%. So, central banks cannot push inflation up in developed countries and are ineffective in pushing it down in developing countries because inflation is caused by restrictions in supplies. The first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was set up in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with a mandate to keep retail inflation between 2 and 6%, with a target of 4%. Although GDP growth was robust for most of its term, other indicators such as credit growth, corporate investments, industrial output, household consumption and real wages were weak, wrote Kwatra and Devulapalli. "There was also growing frustration in the government, especially in the Finance Ministry that was led by Arun Jaitley at that time, about the RBI not bringing down interest rates in the economy." Two independent governors of the RBI were forced to resign over differences with the government and Shaktikanta Das, a retired civil servant who had worked in the Finance Ministry, was appointed governor in 2018. He has slashed interest rate by 250 basis points since last year, though minutes of the MPC showed that it was persistently worried about retail inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 6.69% in August. The RBI could not stop demonetization despite its reservations, it cannot solve problems of a badly planned and badly implemented goods and services tax (GST), or the sudden imposition of total lockdown with just 4 hours notice when coronavirus cases were just 500. "Throughout history, the Union government has deployed three levers to control the RBI," wrote Bhattacharya, Bhatia and Devulapalli. The RBI needs sanction of the government, can be told what to do and the government appoints the governor and board members. If its only function is to reduce interest rate as told, why waste so much money on the RBI. A toothless RBI is useless. The Finance Ministry should directly manage monetary and currency policies. It's doing so anyway. By proxy.      

The worst of locking and unlocking.

 "New Zealand is in its deepest recession in decades, following strict measures in response to the Covid-19 pandemic which were widely praised. The country's GDP shrank by 12.2% between April and June as the lockdown and border closures hit." Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern suggested a quick recovery in the economy, "However Treasury forecasts released yesterday suggested massive debt and continuing disruptions are likely to delay a full recovery." A study by the Center for Economic Policy Research and the World Economic Forum suggested that female leaders have done much better than men in controlling coronavirus infections and deaths. The paper suggested that it was because of "the proactive and coordinated policy responses" by female leaders. So confident was Ardern in her popularity that she called for general elections on 19 September. However, early shutdown to prevent infections leaves a large naive population with no herd immunity. New infections broke out in Auckland resulting in another strict lockdown, forcing Ardern to postpone elections to 17 October under pressure. Sweden, with a male prime minister, refused to lockdown the country with the result that infection rate has fallen to 1.3%, lower than Norway and Denmark which enforced strict lockdowns. India has the worst of both worlds. "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into what was one of the strictest lockdowns in the world," wrote Jha and Mullick, which brought the entire economy to a standstill. Forced by rising hunger the government started unlocking the economy in June while cases were rising. The Union Home Ministry announced unlock 4.0 on 30 August. With 93,337 new cases yesterday the total number has now climbed beyond 5.3 million. However, even with these astronomical numbers there is suspicion of under-reporting of the number of cases and the number of deaths. Non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as diabetes, hypertension and cardio-vascular diseases, "account for 63% of all deaths in India and these are expected to rise further", wrote Kukarni and Galha. But now, "Not only are they denied medical attention, they also have to bear the brunt of hospitals going all out to accommodate covid patients." Outpatient cancer care, immunization of children and hospital child births have all dropped which portend a horrific healthcare crisis, wrote Ragini Saxena. However, optimists hope that punishment for spitting in streets and mandatory face masks to control covid spread may eliminate tuberculosis from the country. Life, death, infection, jobs, hunger, everything is unknown for us in India. "In God we trust," say Americans, we shrug "Ram Bharose."