The rate of false optimism.

"Nomura, which has built a business resumption index to gauge the recovery after the pandemic, said the index moved up by a notch for the week ended November 22 but continues to be below pre-pandemic levels." It has moved to 87.1, but in the previous week, the index "declined marginally to 85.3 for the week ended November 15 from a post-lockdown high of 85.8 a week earlier". "There is an expectation that even if the Indian economy contracts in the current financial year -- by, say, 10 percent -- it will perhaps grow by roughly the same percentage in the next financial year -- 2021-22," wrote Udit Misra. But, absolute level of GDP will be different even if the growth rate remains the same. "For instance, if an economy's GDP were to contract by 10 percent -- from 100 to 90 units -- in Year 1 and then grow by 10 percent in year 2 -- from 90 to 99, then at the end of the second year, the absolute level of GDP will still be lower than what it was two years ago. Had the initial contraction not happened, this economy's GDP would have been 116.6 units -- assuming an 8 percent average annual growth -- at the end of year 2." With 8% growth rate it will take 3 years to reach 116.6 level, after contraction. "Oxford Economics has forecast that India's potential growth is likely to average just 4.5 percent between 2020-2025, as opposed to its pre-virus forecast of 6.5 percent," which was lower than 6.8% average annual growth since economic liberalisation in 1992. "Atmanirbhar Bharat provides a vision of India's plans to become a USD 5 trillion economy by promoting 'Make in India - Make for World' and this will happen through an integration with the global economy, a senior official of the Ministry of External Affairs said." "It is tempting to believe India's size provides fertile ground for import substitution," wrote Sajjid Z Chinoy. But, " no emerging market has been able to sustain 7-8 percent growth for any length of time without relying on the Siamese twins of exports and investment." Global merchandise exports were more than 6 times India's GDP at $18 trillion in 2017, with India's share at 1.7% compared to China's share at 12.8%. Comparing India's and Pakistan's GDP growth per capita since 1950, Prof Amartya Lahiri wrote that "openness to trade and private enterprise usually has positive effects on growth". "Rapacious and exploitative democratic systems", religious fundamentalism, and "degradation of institutions that regulate, arbitrate and enforce laws can be costly". "Among the indicators, perhaps the most significant is the decline in number of establishments registered with the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation by 30,800 in October, compared to September," wrote Prof Himanshu, and the number of enrolled workers fell by 1.8 million. This reflects on the performance of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector which employs 111 million workers. Growth will come from people and not from hype. But they try.   

The lure of the foreign.

 "Indian nationals in line for an employment-based green card in the United States number more than 800,000, according to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data. The green card backlog for employment-based immigrants in 2020 crossed 1.2 million applicants, the highest ever. Indians comprise about 68 percent of this." These are the educated. For the not so educated, they have to pay Rs 2-3 million to people smugglers who take them through "a dangerous path where they have to dodge smugglers and drug cartels, and risk poisonous snake bites while groping there way through jungles that are known to house incurable deadly diseases". Even so they will probably be safer in US detention than in India where, "In a move that has sent shock waves in the medical community, the government has brought out a notification that will allow Ayurveda doctors to be trained and legally allowed to perform a variety of general surgical, ENT, ophthalmology, ortho and dental procedures." In October, the Indian Medical Association (IMA) claimed that more than 500 doctors have died of coronavirus infection and the number must have increased since then. "Are patients in private hospitals or their families told that the doctor on duty at night in the ICU or working as emergency medical officer could be an Ayurvedic or Homeopathic doctor?" asked the Times of India angrily. "The National Accreditation Board for Hospitals and Healthcare Providers (NABH) has initiated surprise assessment in hospitals following a TOI report about several, including those accredited by NABH, employing non-allopathic doctors for clinical duties." "Dearth of MBBS seats along with difficulty getting admissions in medical colleges is forcing aspiring Indian doctors to explore learning opportunities abroad," costing millions of rupees. "But latest data show this investment is proving to be unproductive for a majority with 84 percent failing to clear the mandatory test required to practice in India." To level the playing field, Ayurveda doctors should also be required to pass this test. If Indians need protection from foreign trained incompetents, surely we need to be protected from home grown ones. Trained doctors, even those with post-graduate degrees, are required by the Medical Council of India (MCI) to undertake 30 hours of Continuing Medical Education (CME) every 5 years. "The rapid developments in technology and science and the impending threat of new diseases have made it imperative to strengthen CME in India." Politicians avoid all confusion about whether a doctor is properly trained by traveling abroad for treatment. Politicians are supposed to represent the people so if they deserve the best treatment possible so do we. Especially, taxpayers who foot the bill but get nothing. We are third class in our own country. No treatment for that.       

What if it's not supreme any longer?

 "Democratic barbarism is often sustained by a judicial barbarism," wrote PB Mehta. "The application of law becomes so dependent on the arbitrary whims of individual judges that the rule of law or constitutional terms no longer have any meaning. The law becomes an instrument of oppression; or, at the very least, it aids and abets oppression." Recently, "a Supreme Court Bench headed by Chief Justice SA Bobde observed that it is 'trying to discourage' individuals from filing petitions under Article 32 of the Constitution."  "Article 32 deals with the 'Right to Constitutional Remedies'," so that "When it comes to violation of fundamental rights, an individual can approach the High Court under Article 226 or the Supreme Court directly under Article 32." "Article 226, however, is not a fundamental right like Article 32." The outrage is the result of the expeditious hearing of the bail plea of Arnab Goswami, who is the news anchor of Republic TV and an outspoken supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by the Supreme Court. In a letter to the Secretary General of the Supreme Court, Senior Advocate and President of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) Dushyant Dave wrote, "While thousands of citizens remain in jails, languishing for long periods while their matters before the Supreme Court are not getting listed for weeks and months, it is, to say the least, is deeply disturbing, how and why every time Mr Goswami approaches the Supreme Court, his matter gets listed instantly."  Advocate Gaurav Bhatia of Modi's party, the BJP, wrote a point by point rebuttal of Mehta's charges as just "selective outrage syndrome" of a group of "disgruntled individuals". "In this case, criticism of the judiciary stems not from facts or evidence but from ideological inclination and utter dislike of particular political leaders." This "selective outrage" is totally justified because, in an unprecedented move, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Ranjan Gogoi was nominated to the Rajya Sabha by the Modi government barely 4 months after retiring. Reward for what? When accused of sexual harassment by a junior court assistant, Justice Gogoi "cast doubt on her integrity and tried to contrast it with his own, which he sought to establish via the irrelevant example of a modest bank balance". Finally, an in-house committee was set up in violation of the Supreme Court's own Vishaka guidelines in cases of sexual harassment, and the complaints were dismissed because the complainant refused to attend hearings as she had no confidence in the committee. Finally, two years back, "Four senior judges of the Supreme Court, Justices J Chalameswar, Ranjan Gogoi, Madan B Lokur and Kurian Joseph dropped a bombshell today calling a press conference to express their dissent against the way Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra was functioning." Not "disgruntled individuals", these. "We don't want to formally declare a state of emergency but we might as well act as if there is one, as and when the need arises. Discourage, rather than suspend, the use of Article 32," wrote Mehta. What hope for us if the Supreme Court cannot pass the smell test. It's disaster.

An attempt to hedge against impossible odds.

 "India's glitter fixation has always been evident in the country's appetite for gold," wrote an editorial in the Mint. During the lockdown due to the coronavirus epidemic, "Stuck at home, people turned to digital gold in large numbers." "India is the largest consumer of gold in the world," wrote Kripananda Chidambaram. "Roughly 700 tonnes or 33% of total gold mined in the world is consumed in India."  The government does not like it because, "When we import gold we need to pay in foreign currency and we roughly require USD 60 billion worth of dollars." This puts downward pressure on the rupee and raises the price of oil. Also, "Other financial instruments like fixed deposits, investment policies, shares, bonds etc are a great source of productive funds for corporate and government bodies creating positive impact on the economy." "Not to own any precious metals is to trust politicians and central bankers," said investor Marc Faber. "Just look at the two US presidential candidates and the case for owning gold in clear." Gold is not a hedge against inflation or stock market crashes, wrote Jared Dillian. "Gold is a hedge on government authorities making poor economic choices." "Gold has significantly outperformed stocks this century, gaining 555% versus 79% for the MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks and 146% for the S&P 500 index." Governments love easy money at low interest rates which allows them to run deficits by borrowing. "So, if investing in gold is a bet on authorities doing the wrong thing, the best way to diminish the allure of gold is to run balanced budgets." "Retail inflation surged to a 77-month high of 7.61 percent in October", while "manufacturing sector output posted a decline of 0.6 percent". The last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) left the key interest rate at 4% which means that real interest rate is negative and millions of households are staring at an alarming erosion of their savings, wrote Shayan Ghosh. "India is a country of savers and not much investors. Only 2 percent participate in equity markets directly or through mutual funds, and there is almost zero direct participation in bond markets," wrote Rajas Kelkar. Along with suppressing interest rates the RBI would rather devolve bond sales than allow yields to reflect market borrowings. This means getting lower returns on government bonds. As for shares, "Public shareholders of Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) will lose their money as the entire amount of the paid-up share capital will be written off as per the scheme of amalgamation of LVB with DBS India proposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)." With the government adopting any means to destroy our wealth, Indians see gold as the best hedge against the plunder. So taxes on gold have been hiked to 13% plus 5% GST on making of jewellery. Which makes smuggling extremely lucrative and an estimated 200 tonnes get smuggled into India. Indians are not stupid or lawbreakers. Just trying to protect their meager wealth. 

We cannot miss what we don't know.

 "Companies listed on the stock markets made bumper profits in the quarter ended September 2020," wrote Majesh Vyas of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. "The economy is shrinking this year and companies have seen their sales decline year-on-year for five straight quarters," but profits grew by 21.9% while, wages grew by only 3.8%, "which was lower than the bottom quartile of its distribution which was 7.8 percent". A rise in the wage bill of a company maybe due to an increase in the number of workers or a rise in wages of individual workers. Increased profits could be due to higher margins because of higher prices, which could account in part for retail inflation surging to 7.6% in October from 7.3% in September. Share of wages was 5-6% of net sales before Covid, rose to 9.1% in the June quarter, before falling back to 6.2% in the September quarter, suggesting a decrease in workforce and not a cut in wages. With abundant monsoon we may expect a boom in agriculture, and "There has also been an appreciable improvement of both manufacturing and service sectors in October," wrote M Govinda Rao. "With a balance sheet crisis affecting corporates, banks as well as the government, there has been a sharp slowdown in investment activiy." The least the government can do is to clear all pending bills of contractors which state governments are unable to do because of fall in revenue. "In response to its shrinking share in the total revenue pool, the center has over the years resorted to raising additional revenues through cesses and surcharges. Constitutionally, these are outside the remit of the finance commission's devolution formula and need not be shared with the states," wrote Nikita Kwatra. With sales falling, the private sector cannot invest. "The pandemic has created a perfect storm for corporate India, which was already pruning its capital expenditure plans to cope with sluggish growth when the coronavirus crisis struck in March," wrote Sultana and Ramarathinam. The Indian government has announced a production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for 10 sectors worth Rs 1.46 trillion but, "There are stringent eligibility criteria, allowing only firms with adequate track records to claim benefits," wrote Pradeep S Mehta. And, "Applicants must submit detailed proposals with steep application fees," making it almost impossible. Because of a lack of detailed maps of India, the cost of last mile delivery in India is 30% of total cost, despite much lower cost of labor, while in the US it is just 10% of total cost, wrote Rahul Matthan. "Thanks to draconian regulations that require everyone engaged in this business to take permissions for everything they do, there has been little innovation in this field." So, Indians turn to Google Maps for detailed instructions on how to reach any address. Foreigners know more about India than us. Clearly, ignorance is bliss. Our government believes.      

At least we will be self-reliant in our insufficiency.

 "Addressing a seminar on Monday, India's external affairs minister S Jaishankar made an eloquent case for a globalization game adapted to a world of trade that could not escape the shadow of 'state capitalism'," wrote an editorial in the Mint. He was hinting at China. "Despite fair-play rules of the World Trade Organization, China has largely gotten away with what looks like the active use of state resources to swamp markets elsewhere." "After eight years of talks, China and 14 other nations from Japan to New Zealand to Myanmar on Sunday formally signed one of the world's largest regional free trade agreements, a pact shaped by Beijing partly as a counterweight to US influence in the region," wrote Bradsher and Swanson. "The agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, is limited in scope. Still, it carries considerable symbolic heft." In November last year India pulled out of talks to join the RCEP "in the face of stiff resistance from domestic industries and political circles and reluctance of partners like China to grant it meaningful concessions despite hard negotiations in recent weeks".  "There are concerns that India's decision would impact its bilateral trade ties with RCEP member nations, as they may be more inclined to focus on bolstering economic ties within the bloc," wrote Prabha Raghavan. India already has trade deficits with 11 of the 15 RCEP countries. Instead, Prime Minster Narendra Modi is emphasizing 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' or 'self-reliant India' which was accepted practice till 1991 and "created a system of perverse incentives where domestic firms had no reason to become more efficient", wrote Udit Misra. "Protectionism, as has been repeatedly pointed out, by erecting barriers to entry, leads to the creation of high cost and uncompetitive domestic manufacturing sector." "The government says this is not self-sufficiency, which was attempted -- with disastrous results -- by (Jawaharlal) Nehru and Indira Gandhi," wrote SA Aiyar. "A seminal paper by Bhagwati and Ramaswami in 1963 implied that if a government sought to support a particular sector, it was better done by a subsidy than a tariff. Nehru and Indira took the tariff route and failed." India faces an 'impossible trinity' of choices, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "No country can simultaneously have trade protection, competition in its domestic market and manufacturing at a global scale." "If the focus (under Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative) is on import substitution by erecting tariffs, which we have done lot of in the last few years, then it is a direction we have tried before and it has failed," said Prof Raghuram Rajan. Increasing taxes on imports allows high taxes on domestic production as well. People cannot afford cars because taxes increase prices by over 65%. However, the government thinks that, with 20% of 1.3 billion people possessing wealth of $10,000-100,000 and 2% possessing over $100,000, it can extort as much tax as possible and use it to distribute handouts to win elections. "Centrally-devised industrial plans, as we learnt from the Soviet experience, could go awry over the years." Who cares? After all, "In the long run we are all dead."    

Maybe insidious but it will still increase prices.

 The Indian government released a draft which aims to force employers to provide social security protection to contract workers, such as in construction, ride-hailing services and for delivery boys. "If all goes as planned, even the most loosely-recruited workers shall be eligible for provisions of the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation, Employees' State Insurance Corporation and National Security Board. It may look burdensome to employers, but in a country of highly uneven earnings and patchy welfare promises, this is the least our economy owes them," wrote a sanctimonious editorial in the Mint. This is just another tax which will be passed on to consumers as increased prices. Just like the Right to Education Act, which forces private schools to set aside 25% of seats for poor students a paltry rates, has led to soaring rise in school fees. "California is a left leaning state and voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden, Yet, Proposition 22 made it to the ballot" wrote Siddharth Pai. Because of this, workers for gig companies "will not have the same right as other employees to paid sick days, overtime pay, unemployment insurance or a workplace covered by occupational safety and health laws". In another referendum, "After five states -- Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota -- passed ballot measures for marijuana use last week, the drug will soon be legal in some form for 70% of the US population," wrote Tara Lachapelle. Companies selling cannabis for medical or recreational use are traded on stock exchanges in the US. Cannabis plants are indigenous to India and grow in the wild in the Himalayas. Yet, cannabis is classed as a narcotic substance along with opium, morphine and cocaine. Clonazepam, diazepam and midazolam which are extremely useful in anxiety related disorders, in epilepsy and in short procedures, such as endoscopy, are also in the same list. Strangely, when it came to the son of a politician who was found unconscious and whose secretary died of heroin and cocaine overdose, it was stated in court that 5 grams of heroin and 2 grams of cocaine made it a lesser offence. Although, opium plant is natural to India, heroin production is complicated chemical process and the coca plant, from which cocaine is obtained, "is not known to grow in a state of nature anywhere in India", said a report of UNODC in 1958. So, even the smallest quantity of cocaine has to be contraband and a serious criminal offence. "India's employer regulatory cholesterol universe is vast: 1,536 Acts that create 69,233 compliances and 6,618 filings every year," wrote Sabharwal and Agrawal. Using the poor to increase taxes stealthily is an old trick. This government is no different.    

Who is paying the experts?

 "The Indian economy is seen recovering faster than expected and the Reserve Bank is likely to have come to an end of the rate easing cycle, according to global forecasting firm, Oxford Economics." "It further said that inflation is expected to average significantly above 6 percent in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal". "Retail inflation surged to a 77-month high of 7.61 percent in October" and "According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, manufacturing sector output posted a decline of 0.6 percent." "India's wholesale inflation rose for the third consecutive month and firmed up to an eight-month high of 1.48% in October driven by manufactured items, data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed." One would expect manufacturing output to increase when prices are going up, but it fell. Extraordinary. "India's top retail trade body said on Sunday that sales during that the country's Diwali festive period rose by more than 10% year-on-year, indicating 'good business prospects' for small businesses." "India's retail inflation may stay elevated for at least three more months after hitting a six-year high in October, as excess rain has damaged standing crops and seedlings, while edible oils that the country imports have become expensive." Food prices are rising globally "led by cereals, sugar, dairy and vegetable oils, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations". "India's trade deficit in October rose to its highest in the ongoing financial year as exports declined 5.12% year-on-year to $24.89 billion after growing in September, led by a fall in outbound shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, leather and engineering goods." Trade deficit was $8.71 billion. "Indian services exports in September fell 1.4 percent to USD 17.29 billion, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." And yet, "The foreign exchange reserves jumped by a massive $7.779 billion to touch a lifetime high of $568.494 billion in the week ended November 6," the RBI said. So much money! "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested a massive Rs 35,109 crore (Rs 351.09 billion) in Indian markets in November so far as corporate earnings and reforms measures undertaken by the government to revive investment activities kept the investors' sentiments upbeat." Buying dollars from the market releases an equivalent amount of rupees into the system by the RBI. At the same time, experts want the RBI to reduce rates by another 50 basis points. Excess liquidity and low rates can only add to already high inflation, so why do they want to lower rates even further? Could be because high inflation reduces government debt. Why help the government and kill people? Are they paid?  

Will Biden reopen the escape routes from India?

Most Indian journalists are extremely hostile to Donald Trump. "Talk of a coup in the world's premier democracy is ticking up after US President Donald Trump fired the top Pentagon leadership and replaced them on Tuesday with loyalists, including Indian-American aide Kash Patel, while refusing to concede the election," was a ridiculous report by Chidanand Rajghatta. "Given Trump's unashamed racism and sexism, the mostly morality-neutral discussion of what India might have gained from his re-election has been distressing," wrote Rahul Jacob. "Trump's former strategist and multi-millionaire Steve Bannon liked to argue that this (Trump's) base signalled a revolt against the elites, a line of argument parroted by some Indian commentators with a similar lack of irony." Trump has repeatedly claimed that Democrats 'stole' the election, which is vehemently denied by the hostile media. Why is it impossible when Democrats schemed to get Bernie Sanders to drop out of the primaries? "Dozens of interviews with Democratic establishment leaders this week show that they are not just worried about Mr Sanders's candidacy, but are also willing to risk intraparty damage to stop his nomination at the national convention in July if they get the chance," wrote Lerer and Epstein. Democrats without Democracy. "As Thomas Piketty, among others, has noted, parties of the left have increasingly become the parties of educated, metropolitan elites," wrote Prof Dani Rodrik. "The problem is not just that these elites often favor economic policies that leave middle and lower-middle classes and lagging regions behind. It is also their cultural, social, and spatial isolation renders them incapable of understanding and empathizing with worldviews of the less unfortunate." Democrat presidential candidate in 2016 Hillary Clinton said Trump's supporters are a "basket of deplorables" and that "The're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic -- you name it." Joe Biden, who claims to have won the election despite Trump getting a record number of popular votes, said Trump supporters are "ugly folks" and "chumps". Democrat Bill Clinton imposed tough sanctions on India after our nuclear test in 1998 and the icon of Democrat elites Barack Obama supplied F16 aircraft and advanced weapons to Pakistan after Pakistan's ISI helped the US kill Osama Bin Laden in 2011 for Obama to win re-election in 2012. So why do Indian journalists support Biden? Because they hope that he will increase H-1B visas and green cards for Indians. So that their children can escape from India. Their hatred of Trump is because he made it more difficult. So much for Mother India.         

How do we know who to trust?

 "Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 may well be Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's last Covid-19 relief package ahead of Budget 2021-22, but there is a discernible pattern to the four major announcements made over the last seven months." "Even if one takes an optimistic account of the extra spend this year, it will add up to just Rs 1,18,200 crore (Rs 1.18 trillion), not even half of what she said." She said Rs 2.65 trillion. "But even this Rs 1,18,200 crore extra spending this year, by no means, is insignificant; it accounts for 0.6 percent of GDP," wrote PV Iyer. "The third package confirms some patterns in the Central government's fiscal response to the pandemic," wrote Neelkanth Mishra. "The cumulative fiscal intervention is now 2.2 percent of GDP, close to the 3 percent of GDP of stimulus that was considered necessary earlier in the year." "India's currency is strong, the stock market is surging, and long-term interest rates are under control," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The trouble is with demand." "How will the gap in private consumption and public investment get filled?" "One obstacle is the low starting point. India's exports never had much overseas value addition embedded in them, reflecting the country's isolation from the global supply chains." India's trade deficit was the highest this year at $8.71 billion because exports declined by 5.12% to $24.89 billion, even as imports fell by 11.53% to $33.61 billion. Though, "high-frequency indicators, including exports, automobile sales and manufacturing output, have shown strength in recent months amid an uptick in consumption", "the latest measures are an extension of a rescue plan announced in May, although that's done little to revive demand in the economy heavily reliant on consumption," wrote Anirban Nag. "Business leaders, policy makers and politicians alike are pinning hopes on the rural sector as bountiful rains have set the stage for another year of record crops. Higher disposable incomes with farmers are expected to boost demand from automobile to cement to gold jewellery," wrote Kotoki and Alfonso. If we are expecting bumper crops why are food prices so high? "India's retail inflation may stay elevated for at least three more months after hitting a six-year high in October, as excess rain has damaged standing crops and seedlings, while edible oils that the country imports have become expensive." New investments will happen only when Indians trust one another, wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. "But, "That is getting fractured." "India was among the world's three or four fastest growing economies, From that, this year, we are going to be in the bottom 10 economies in the world." Everything can be changed, but trust, once broken, is almost impossible to restore. Like Humpty Dumpty.                

Unwanted since before birth!

 "Almost six million white-collar workers, including engineers, physicians, teachers, accountants and analysts, lost their jobs between May and August, the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said." Because of the coronavirus epidemic. "Women's share in new payroll additions fell below the 20% mark in August, part of a gradual decline in female participation in formal work over the past few months, according to government data." "Around 66% of campus graduates do not have a job offer on hand, according to a survey by job portal Naukri. "The unemployment rate in India increases with the rise in educational level, more so for females, the Parliament was informed". "Females living in rural parts of the country with up to primary level of education were the most employed over the years," "Females with PG (post graduate) or above degrees in rural areas had unemployment rate of 36.8 while those in urban areas had an unemployment rate of 19.5. Men with PG and above degrees in urban areas had an unemployment rate of 8.6." "While the pandemic has resulted in widespread job losses across multiple sectors (including 21 million salaried formal sector jobs as per one estimate), women whose participation in the workforce was already on the slide have been particularly hit," wrote Sayantan Bera. The labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women "fell sharply from 31% in 2011-12 to 23% in 2017-18", while the "work participation rate (WPR) -- a measure of the proportion of adults who work -- fell from an already low 9.15% in December 2019 to just 5.8% in August this year", according to the Azim Premji University. "According to Unicef, 650 million women alive today were married before they turned 18. India is home to 223 million or one in three of these child brides." wrote Prof Shruti Rajagopalan. "Society imposes a very high cost of raising girls on parents, especially in poor Indian families, which, attempt to reduce these costs by marrying daughters off at a young age, if they prefer to invest in sons." When women are not wanted it shows up at birth. The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report (2018) found a declining fertility rate among all women in India, wrote Rangarajan and Satia. "Biologically normal sex ratio at birth is 1,050 males to 1,000 females or 950 females to 1,000 males. The SRS reports show that sex ratio at birth in India, measured as the number of females per 1,000 males, declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018." The LFPR for women in Bangladesh is 37%, as against 21% for India. As a result it is ranked at 88 in the Global Hunger Index against 102 for India and life expectancy in Bangladesh is 72 years, against 69 years for India. No wonder, per capita income in Bangladesh will be higher than in India this year. The cost of ignoring half our wealth.     

Only 31% anxious. Definitely better than being half anxious.

 "India's economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter, according to a team of economists including Michael Patra, the central bank's deputy governor in charge of monetary policy, pushing the country into an unprecedented recession." A country is said to be in a technical recession if its gross domestic product (GDP) contracts in successive quarters. The Reserve Bank (RBI) estimates that India's GDP will contract by 8.6% in the July-September quarter, after contracting by 23.9% in the April-June quarter because of the lockdown. Sounds grim, but there is good news. "Moody's raised its forecast for India's growth to -8.9% for the calendar year 2020 from -9.6% and for the coming year as well to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier, in its Global Market Outlook 2021-22 report on Thursday." "Indian consumers are experiencing a significant decrease in anxiety levels, and increased in-store visits with the advent of the festive season, Deloitte's 90-day analysis of the ongoing Global Consumer Tracker survey across 18 countries said." The survey found that, compared to July and August, there is a decline in the fear of losing jobs and "anxiety levels of Indian consumers are now at 31%". "Now the problem that I am grappling with is how to produce enough to feed the market. We are operating at more than 100% capacity utilisation and still not able to feed the demand," said CEO of M&M Farm Equipment Sector Hemant Sikka. "At the end of October, the (tractor) industry has grown by 11% (this fiscal year), and this is after losing almost two months of production due to the lockdown." Although things are certainly better than in the April-June quarter, "In 17 out of 21 major economic indicators the Indian economy is still considerably worse off than a year ago," wrote Vivek Kaul. Sales of two-wheelers fell 26.2% year-on-year in October 2020 and were even lower than two years ago. "This tells us that the aspirational middle class is in trouble." Consumption of non-oil non-gold non-silver imports fell by 8.3% in October, sales of commercial vehicles fell by 30.3%, consumption of finished steel fell 2% and there has been a "huge crash" in investment in new projects with "corporates holding on to their resources".  Unemployment fell to 7% in October 2020 compared to 8.1% last year, but demand for work under the MGNREGS scheme jumped by 88.5% in September, showing that there is a lack of paid jobs. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a new job creation scheme Amanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana, under which the government will pay Employees' Provident Fund "(EPF) contributions for all new eligible employees". That's if companies hire new workers in these uncertain times. We will keep our fingers crossed. Toes as well.   

Inequality is bad. But, is equality possible?

 "Chile has -- at least from afar -- been heralded as a regional success story for its solid governance and investor-friendly environment. It's free market model has has driven down poverty from 31 percent in 2000 to 6.4 percent in 2017, according to the World Bank, and made the copper-rich Andean nation the highest ranked country in Latin America on the United Nations Human Development Index," wrote Mark Johanson. But, "This South American nation's recent referendum saw 78% voting to change its constitution, in force for 40 years," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. The referendum was held after widespread, often violent, protests against a rise of 10 Chilean pesos in bus fares and 30 pesos in fares of the Metro in Santiago. The fare hikes ignited long-standing anger due to "widening income inequality, poor healthcare and education infrastructure, and perennially low wages and pensions, among other things". "Last year, the United Naions Economic Commission for Latin America estimated that nearly a quarter of total income goes to 1% of Chile's population. To cover the high cost of living, Chileans are greatly indebted. The Central Bank found last year that on average nearly three-fourths of household income was used to pay debt," wrote the New York Times. Socialism was written into the Indian Constitution by Mrs Indira Gandhi during the Emergency, wrote Salis Tripathi, and has been followed by every political party. In keeping with socialist philosophy India has a multitude of social schemes to help the poor. And yet, "India's richest 1 percent hold more than four-times the wealth held by 953 million people who make up for the bottom 70 percent of the country's population, while the total wealth of all billionaires is more than the full-year budget, a new study said." And "78 percent of the adult population have personal wealth less than $10,000 or about Rs 7,30,000 according to the latest Credit Suisse report on global wealth". "A nutrition survey by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has found that 35 percent of children under the age of 5 years in the country are stunted, while 17 percent are wasted and 33 percent are underweight." India's credit rating is BBB-, which is one stop above junk rating, while that of Chile is A-. "Corruption, cronyism, nepotism, investment and divestment based on patronage and not profit. These are what have kept India down," wrote Matt Kilcoyne. A study showed that the ruling party approves funds for local resources if the local legislator is from the same party but withholds funds if the legislator is from another party because then he will get the votes. Does Chile want to be like India?    

What about a second term in 2024?

"A nightmare began with Donald Trump's victory in November 2016. It has just been extended indefinitely with his narrow loss and wild allegations of electoral fraud," wrote Pankaj Mishra. Probably no president of the US has faced as much abuse as President Trump because liberal fanatics never accepted Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016. "Russian interference, including the WikiLeaks email hack and news dump; James Comey's decision to reopen the FBI's investigation of Clinton's email server practices just eleven days out from Election Day; the obsessive, unrelenting focus of the mainstream media on the email scandal; ambient racism and sexism that gave Trump an unexpected edge; and Cambridge Analytica's data gleaned from Facebook to try and manipulate voters. And on and on," wrote Damon Linker. "American liberalism was possible only because America wasn't fully liberal," wrote Patrick J Deneen. "The tools of the liberal order that were intended to free us from interpersonal obligations -- the state and market -- seem no longer under our control; in poll after poll, and expressed in film and song, Americans express the anxiety and fear they no longer feel free." "Unfortunately, this election hasn't resulted in the demise of the Trump platform. It attracted upwards of 70 million votes which is 7 million more than he garnered in 2016, when he was a relatively unknown entity," wrote Swagato Ganguly. "On the bright side, a Trump victory has been averted." Though Trump received a record number of votes, breaking Barack Obama's record, Biden achieved a double record break by getting 4 million votes more than Trump, thanks to mail-in, or postal, votes where the intention of the voter cannot be ascertained, even if the signature matches. The liberal world order has created a succession of financial crises, including the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s, the Asia crisis of 1987-1988, the Dotcom bubble of 1999-2000 and the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, which have predominantly hit the working class and the poor. Globalization, a holy project for liberals, resulted in loss of 3.7 million US jobs to China. While large numbers of people have been lifted out of abject poverty in emerging nations, thus reducing inequality slightly, inequality has increased in wealthy countries as the middle class has shrunk, wrote Zia Qureshi. Even during the coronavirus induced lockdown, "Billionaires have seen their fortunes hit record highs during the pandemic". Trump has wrought far-reaching changes to the US, most of which will be permanent, even if liberals disagree. He has managed to persuade three Arab nations to cease hostilities against Israel which no previous president has achieved. Biden may have been mailed into the White House but he may find old policies do not work any more. Trump may yet return.      

Righteous anger makes him stonger. Embrace him.

 Apparently, strong anti-incumbency is expected as counting gets underway in Bihar assembly election, "but Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain popular in the state, the election campaign showed", wrote R Verma and A Barthwal. "Data from WVS (World Values Survey) shows that a sizeable chunk of both Hindus and Muslim voters desire a strong leader who does not care much about parliamentary norms or elections." It is this perception that allows Modi to lie his way out of every situation. Thus, even though migrants were forced to walk hundreds of miles following sudden lockdown, many dying on the way, they do not blame Modi for their ordeal. Once there is 'vishwas', which means 'faith', people tend to believe everything, wrote PB Mehta. "Faith in a leader is deeply facilitated by nationalism: The leader as the simplified embodiment of unity, will and purpose. Behind this phenomenon of producing vishwas is an extraordinary machinery of communication, which literally employs as many elements in a communicative tool as there are feathers in a dancing peacock: From semiotic command of images to a saturation with messages; from good-old-fashioned hard-working party outreach to literal control of the media." Indians love oppressors. "The chances of winning for a candidate with declared criminal cases in the Lok Sabha 2019 is 15.5 percent whereas for a candidate with a clean background, it is 4.7 percent," wrote Anand Patel. "Over time, many Indian voters -- faced with a state unable to service their needs -- have looked to those who can. Viewed in this light, politicians with criminal records are not symptomatic of a failure of the democratic process," wrote Milan Vaishnav who has researched the attractions of criminal politicians in India. "Surveys in recent months have shown that despite undergoing significant hardships during the pandemic, voters continue to repose faith in Modi government, and the steps taken by it to help the poor." Even though demonetisation was an "epic failure" Modi insists that it "helped reduce black money, increase tax compliance". "Meanwhile, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi slammed the government over demonetisation, alleging PM Modi's move four years ago was aimed at helping a few of his "crony capitalist friends" and had "destroyed" the Indian economy." Won't work. Human beings ignore facts which contradict their beliefs. The Congress has to own up for past mistakes and show that Modi is following their policies. If Gandhi wants to become prime minister he will have to embrace Modi as no different. Honeyed poison. If he really wants to win.   

We get what we want.

     "State-run power giant NTPC on Sunday said thermal power plants are not responsible for the deteriorating air quality in Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR)." "Delhi's air quality remained in the 'severe' category on Saturday with Air Quality Index (AQI) recorded at 456." "An AQI between 0-50 is marked good, 51-100 is satisfactory, 101-200 is moderate, 201-300 is poor, 301-400 is very poor and 401 to 500 is considered severe." According to NTPC, "Vehicular emissions, construction activities, road dust, industrial emissions and above all agro-waste (parali) burning in the nearby states are contributing to the smog". But, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said "stubble burning is an inexpensive way of getting rid of agricultural waste but it severely affects air quality in Delhi and other northern states". "India has predominantly a PM10 problem,' wrote Chandra Bhushan. "About 78% of the cities exceeded PM10 standards compared to 36% for PM2.5, 9% for NO2 and none for SO2." Even during the almost total lockdown from 25 March to 20 April, which was classified as the most stringent according to an index created by Oxford University, when there were few vehicles on roads and factories were shut down, "the country was barely meeting NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards). "This indicates that pollution from cooking fuel, agriculture and natural sources are sufficient to breach air quality norms in large parts of the country". A study in Scotland in the UK found that emissions of PM2.5 "remained consistent during the first month of lockdown, despite a 65 percent decline in the number of vehicles on Scotland's roads". Eventually all cars will become electric as nations throughout the world want vehicle emissions to reduce but there are many problems, including high cost, lack of charging facilities and long charging times. A battery pack in a Tesla car costs $10,000-12,000, in excess of Rs 750,000. Then there is the abysmal drainage systems in Indian cities. If an electric car gets submerged it will short circuit, the engine will blow and it may even catch fire. If air pollution in Delhi becomes severe every year a permanent solution must be found to save inhabitants from early death. "The reasons why a solution hasn't been found yet are purely political," wrote Chanakya. "The Center and Haryana (and Uttar Pradesh) are governed by the Bharatiya Janata Party; Delhi by the Aam Aadmi Party; and Punjab by the Congress. And so, the Union Environment Ministry has shown itself to be far more interested in laying the blame at the Delhi government's door than finding a solution; Delhi blames Punjab, Haryana and the Center; and both Punjab and Haryana (more the former than the latter) have not managed to ensure their farmers do not burn the post-harvest stubble ahead of the next cropping season." Strange that there are 838 motor vehicles per 1,000 people in the US but they do not seem to cause pollution whereas cars are blamed in India where there are only 22 cars per 1,000 people. Americans want to be rich, our politicians want us to be poor. So, we remain poor.              

Can't be bashful and all powerful at the same time.

 "Wrapping up his two-day visit to West Bengal, Union Home Minister Amit Shah reiterated his government's commitment to implement the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)." "West Bengal goes to poll in the next six months." The CAA aims to give citizenship to non-Muslim illegal immigrants who have fled religious persecution in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The passage of the Act led to widespread protests all over India, which were brutally suppressed by the police, as usual. "After the systematic targeting of religious minorities, increase in lynching cases, the partisan attitude of the police during communal riots, the use of religious symbols in public discourse and the raising of slogans, 'Jai Shri Ram' and 'Allah-o-Akbar', in Parliament, we have now, for the first time, added a religious test to the procedure of granting citizenship," wrote Faizan Mustafa. "But if Hindus really feel threatened from Muslims and Christians, we must address their concern and not shy away from discussing the possibility of a Hindu Rashtra, Minorities, too, are now fed up with this facade of secularism, with all state institutions tilting toward one religion. Perhaps some kind of Hindu Rashtra can help us bring peace and save the country from the path of self-destruction." "In 1981, Muslims were about 94.96 percent of Kashmir while in 2011, the community's population stands at 96.41 percent," wrote Suhas Ambale. On the other hand, "The proportion of Muslims in the Jammu region has increased substantially from 30.7 percent in 2001 to 33.5 percent in 2011". The Census in 1961 revealed the proportion of Muslims in Jammu and Kashmir at 68.31%, with Hindus at 28.45%, while the 2011 Census showed that the Muslim population is still at 68.31% of total population with Hindus at 28.43%, wrote Zeeshan Shaikh. "Liberty, equality and fraternity have been the watchwords of democracy, since the French Revolution. In India, fraternity has been trampled into the mud by rioters and lynch mobs, Equality has been given a formal farewell with the Citizenship Amendment Act that diminishes the quality of Muslim citizenship. If anyone thought that liberty could not survive on its own, they should suppress the urge to cry wolf," wrote TK Arun. "I think this regime is the ripening of things which have been happening for 40 years," said Arun Shourie. "It is progressive decay over time of all institutions, starting with Parliament, the legislatures, judiciary and the media." Mrs Indira Gandhi had a sense of shame, but "That is missing in the rulers of today." CAA is just a diversion. Power is total.            

What if governments are more responsible?

 "The euro zone's economic recovery stalled last month as a second wave of coronavirus cases and restrictions imposed to try and contain it whacked activity in the bloc's service industry, pointing to a double-dip recession." reported Reuters. "Alongside their peers, Germany and France  -- the 19-country bloc's two biggest economies -- have imposed tough lockdown measures." "On paper the European economy is snapping back smartly from the pandemic, growing more in the third quarter than it ever had, "wrote Jack Ewing. "Instead of returning to a semblance of normalcy, governments in the European Union, America's largest trading partner, are straining to find ways to support furloughed and unemployed workers, and to keep restaurants and other businesses from going bankrupt." There are other prices to pay. In Britain, "Up to 50,000 cancer cases have gone undiagnosed during the pandemic," a charity reported. "A further 33,000 cancer sufferers are facing delays in starting treatment because of the pandemic, the report said." After an outbreak of Ebola in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea "people began avoiding healthcare at all costs". "The number of pregnant women seeking help with childbirth was down 80%, vaccination rates plummeted and there were 40% fewer admissions of children with malaria." "While the lockdown approach managed to 'flatten' the curve of new infections, and deaths, in some major Western countries, it failed to exterminate the virus, creating the possibility of a second wave rising from the residue of the first," wrote Prof Vivek Dahejia. It had a devastating effect on economies. "Among major countries, at least democracies, India's situation seems worst of all. Having locked down hard when cases were low, India has reaped a double whirlwind of high infection and mortality rates and of an economy in free fall, having been crippled by its draconian lockdown." Lockdowns are useless, wrote SS Bhalla. "With lockdowns cases were expected to reach their terminal level, perhaps, 10 times higher at 8.8 million? Today, cases are 40 times, and deaths 24 times higher. This has happened during the most intense period of lockdowns and controls around the world. These are not statistics about even partial success; rather indicators of massive failure." "Asia Pacific is set to recover from its worst recession in living memory, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says. Growth forecasts for the region have been downgraded again, this time from -1.6% to -2.2% this year." So, what are people dying of? The virus or governments?           

Bond traders are easy. What about the economy?

 "The Indian economy is poised to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year based on the trends observed so far, barring the incidence of a second wave that may be triggered by the fatigue with social distancing, the finance ministry said in its monthly economic report for October." A 10% rise in goods and services tax (GST) collection in October, incorporation of 85.283 companies compared to 71,164 in October 2019 and 109% of Long Period Average rainfall give cause for optimism. However, the pre-pandemic growth in GDP was a very feeble 3.1%, lowest in 40 quarters. After hitting a high of 8.3% in 2016-17, the economy grew by 7% in 2017-18, 6.1% in 2018-19, and 4.2% in 2019-20. Worse, nominal gdp growth, which is the basis of tax collection, fell from the budget estimate of 12-12.5% to a revised estimate of 7.2%. Although any growth, even at the anemic pre-pandemic level is welcome, it's not going to be easy. "India has scaled back expenditure, including on productive assets that aid economic growth, as the government is confronted with the risk of its budget deficit blowing out," wrote Vrishti Beniyal. The central government has already decided to increase fiscal deficit by 53%, from Rs 7.8 trillion, estimated in the budget, to Rs 12 trillion. The states had estimated a consolidated deficit of 2.8% of GDP for 2020-21 but this is now expected to rise to at least 4.6% of state GDP. "The pandemic-induced growth contraction and additional spending to support the needy amounting to a little over 2 percent of the economy are likely to push the combined fiscal deficit to 13 percent of GDP this fiscal -- nearly double of the last year, according to a report." Government debt is expected to increase from under 70% to over 80% of GDP, to Rs 75.6 trillion. Higher debt load means higher interest payments so the Reserve Bank (RBI) has been trying to bully the bond market by refusing to accept bids at higher yields for its bond auctions on at least 4 occasions in the last 2 months. "The devolvement at four consecutive auctions led bond traders to conclude that RBI does not want the 10-year bond yield (or interest rate) to cross 6%," wrote Aparna Iyer. The lower the price at which the bonds are sold, the higher will be the yield. Normally, yields on short term papers are lower because risks are easier to anticipate than on longer term bonds. This is the yield curve. The RBI wants to flatten this curve by forcing down yields on 10-year bonds. But, "The spread between the operating rate, which is the reverse repo rate, and the 10-year government security yield is 250 basis points. The spread between 3-year government security and 10-year is 120 basis points," wrote Murthy Nagarajan. Because retail inflation was 7.34% in September due to rising food prices, the exorbitant taxes on fuel are yet to feed through, and even core inflation, which strips out food and fuel prices, is high at 5%. A few limbs of the economy are growing. But, will that spread to the rest?  

Penal laws are never outdated.

 The Emergency during Indira Gandhi's government "was a tragedy in modern India's history" during which the government passed the Foreign Contributions (Regulations) Act or FCRA. Instead of being abolished it "was amended last month and has become more draconian", wrote Gurcharan Das. One amendment "forbids the transfer of a foreign donation to another organisation". The reason maybe that the largest foreign donations are received by Christian evangelical groups which, the government suspects, use the money to convert Hindus to Christians. "Earlier this year, a Chennai-based NGO Caruna Bal Vikas was booked by the CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation). The FIR (First Information Report) claims that the NGO was getting huge finances from abroad to convert people to Christianity," wrote Dilip Mandal. "India's Home Ministry has canceled four Christian organizations' licenses to receive foreign donations without specifying any reason for the move," reported Union of Catholic Asian News. Last month, "Six non-profits and trusts and nine places, including the property of former Delhi Minority Commission chief Zafarul-Islam Khan have been raided by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in a terror funding case." "A second provision has put a cap of 20% on overhead expenses," wrote Das. "Those NGOs who run research institutions, schools, hospitals and shelters out of foreign funds will now have to prove that most of their employee expenses are non-administrative." Another law, passed by the previous Congress-led government, and being enforced by this one is the General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR). In September, an international arbitration tribunal in the Hague ruled that a retrospective tax demand of $2 billion on Vodafone was "in breach of an investment treaty agreement between India and the Netherlands" and awarded costs of $5.47 million against India. "Jaitley as the Finance Minister of Modi-1.0 government on several occasions had stated that the BJP government will not raise any new demand using the retrospective tax legislation and will honor arbitration awards in cases companies had challenged tax demands raised by the previous regime using the controversial retrospective tax legislation." Other laws are also continuing from Emergency. "Under UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act) and NSA (National Security Act), bail can be denied almost indefinitely. In many cases, the state is not even under any obligation to present a credible case to the court nor frame charges in a time bound manner," wrote Pankaj Butalia. This is nothing however. Indians can be arrested indefinitely under Section 124A of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) enacted by the British in 1870. When the government is not bound by any rule it becomes a police state. No one dare protest.    

Wouldn't it be better if the whole country is competitive?

 "India's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in over a decade in October as demand and output continue to recover strongly from coronavirus related disruptions, but firms cut more jobs, a private survey showed." "The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index INPMI=ECI, compiled by IHS Markit, rose to 58.9 in October from September's 56.8." "But firms cut staff for the seventh month in a row, a streak not witnessed since the survey began in 2005, signaling a quick recovery in the consumer-driven economy may be a distant possibility." A survey conducted by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) showed that "Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose to 65.5 in the second quarter after recording a massive drop to 46.4 in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal". "India's unemployment rate rose in October to 6.98% from 6.67% in September, according to data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)." "Rural unemployment climbed to 6.9% in October against 5.86% in September," while "urban unemployment was down from 8.45% in September to 7.15% in October". As per the Department of Agriculture, "The government has pegged a record production of foodgrains at 144.52 million tonnes in the ongoing Kharif season". If manufacturing production, business confidence and harvest of cereals is going up why is employment falling? Strange. "When I speak to industry, they clearly say there is a lot of reset in industry from the point of view of running businesses with less than more -- less capital, manpower, effort and certain inputs. Industry is realising competitiveness is a strong message," said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. It means companies are not thinking of increasing capacity, new investment or employing more people. "Half of all work tasks will be handled by machines by 2025 in a shift likely to worsen inequality, a World Economic Forum report has forecast." "The pandemic has pushed many slum families into persistent poverty," wrote Prof A Krishna and E Rains. "Having exhausted their savings, piled on debt at ever-higher interest rates, and mortgaged or sold their meager assets, slum families are finding it hard to cope." Instead of providing relief to citizens the government is thinking of increasing taxes on fuel which will increase cost of personal transport and all goods transported by road. Petrol prices are around $2 per gallon in the US, which works out to around Rs 48 per liter whereas prices are over Rs 80 per liter in India already. If the country is not competitive, companies have to be. Which means fewer jobs.         

When you have a willing stooge.

 "Two reports released independently of each other last week" reveal problems "which if unaddressed will not only risk reversing the gains achieved in poverty alleviation, but also fundamentally skew the dynamics of inequality -- which in turn risks overturning prevailing social equilibrium with potentially catastrophic consequences", wrote Anil Padmanabhan. "One, only a little under one-third of India's schoolchildren are accessing education online", and two, "the vexing issue of gender inequality". "How do the rich survive in a country that is vastly poor?" asked Manu Joseph. Because, he reasons, "the poor seem to hate each other as much or even more than they do the upper classes". As stock markets have soared in most countries the number of billionaires have gone up. It is no different in India, as the share market made a V-shaped recovery from 25,900 levels in March to 40159 today. The explanation given is that markets are pricing in a strong recovery and higher profits for our companies in the near future. "The market capitalization of all listed companies in India hit a record Rs 161 trillion ($2.11 trillion) on Thursday, as the rebound in several macro indicators and earnings optimism fired up stocks," wrote Sultana and Sonavane. "A surge in global liquidity, balance sheet expansion by central banks and stimulus measures by governments have contributed to the overall rally in India equities for the past few months," said Prasanna Pathak." But, whereas the US is considering another stimulus taking the total to 30% of GDP and Japan has already provided stimulus worth 40% of GDP, India, by contrast, has provided just 2% fiscal stimulus, wrote AS Aiyar. Because, "Most likely, the PMO (Prime Minister's Office) fears that a fiscal spending spree will send inflation soaring to 9%, the level at which voters have historically rebelled against the ruling party." The Reserve Bank (RBI), on the other hand, has been most active. It has been using all means to force the bond market to reduce yields on 10-year bonds to below 6%, wrote Aparna Iyer. Yields are down to 5.88% in the secondary market. It has also infused enormous liquidity. "The liquidity surplus is in excess of Rs 5 trillion" due to bond buying and  by buying dollars by the RBI which increases an equivalent amount of rupees into the system. "Millions of households are staring at negative returns from their savings with inflation peaking at more than 7% in September," wrote Shayan Ghosh. This is severe financial repression on the hapless people of India. Slashing returns from savings along with using high inflation to reduce government debt by a subservient RBI is a violent assault on the people. We are used to it. Still hurts.          

If the future is starved.

 "The digital pivot in India's schooling system risks pushing it into deeper inequality, seven months after schools shut down across the country to tackle the pandemic. A majority of children without access to internet has been thrown into distress -- a handful to the point of self-harm, as several reports in this newspaper attest -- by an exclusionary method of learning," wrote an editorial in The Indian Express. A telephone survey of over 60,000 children in rural India by the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) found that, "Only about one-third of the surveyed children had access to online learning; only about 11 percent had access to live online classes." "The coronavirus pandemic is forcing India's children out of school and into farms and factories to work, worsening a child labor problem that was already one of the most dire in the world," wrote Shwetha Sunil. "A 2018 study by DHL International GmBH estimated that more than 56 million children were out of school in India -- more than double the combined number across Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam." Profs Kingdon and Panagariya wrote that although "the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 has outlined a new road map to overhaul India's education system", "The heart of the problem in school education, however, is the extremely poor delivery of outcomes by public school teachers." "Unsurprisingly, even parents with limited means are progressively moving their children out of public schools to low-fee budget private schools." To camouflage poor teaching Board exams have been made so easy that this year colleges in Delhi were demanding 100% marks in the chosen subject for admission. "While such political gimmickry may generate a feel-good factor and confer some short-term electoral advantage, it brazenly treats the school examination system as a political football," wrote Kingdon. All children need nutrition, healthcare, education, shelter and, above all, security to thrive.    When schools were shut down because of the lockdown in March, "Millions of children were deprived of the midday meal they used to receive at school and many people lost their jobs," wrote Jessie Yeung. Child traffickers took advantage. "Between April and September, 1,127 children suspected of being trafficked were rescued across India and 86 alleged traffickers were arrested, according Bachpan Bachao Andolan. The government is required by law to provide food at token prices to those Below Poverty Line, but, more than 100 million people are apparently being left out, according to Prof Jean Dreze. Healthcare is almost non-existent. "Afghanistan and India set aside the same share for health in their budgets, 4%, just above a quarter of the recommended spending and one-third of the second poorest country in the world, Burundi, did." Children are the future. Hungry children means a starving future.