Oil, ethanol or food.

About two weeks back, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged Indians to cut down the use of vegetable oil." "India imported $19.5 billion worth of vegetable oils in 2025-26." NDTV. "International prices of edible oil have shot up in recent months - they were up 23% on-year in April,"..."with major producer Indonesia diverting supplies to make bio-diesel in an effort to mitigate the spike in global crude prices." "In 1980-81, an average Indian consumed less than 4kg of oil in a year. By 2021-22, this had dramatically risen to nearly 20kg, as per data cited in a Niti Aayog report." India imports 60% of its edible oil use." "Currently, oilseeds are mostly grown by marginal farmers, who lack access to irrigation, in marginal soils, leading to poor yields." Increasing acreage is not feasible as that will hurt pulses which already face a supply shortfall, wrote Sayantan Bera. Meanwhile, "Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, has issued a bold call for India to transition towards '100 percent ethanol blending' in petrol." Currently India imports 87% of its crude oil requirement at a cost of Rs 22 trillion annually, and domestically produced ethanol will cut India's import bill. msn.com. Unlike petroleum, which comes from under the ground, ethanol is produced from agricultural products. In India, ethanol is produced from rice, sugarcane and maize and, with prices going up, "Maize has been sown across 9.189 million hectares so far in the 2025-26 kharif season."  As a result, "poultry and cattle feed industries, which consume 60-70% of India's maize, are facing tighter supplies," and "There has been a notable shift from groundnut, sunflower, soybean, sorghum, millet and pulses." "Data showed that area under oilseeds has come down by almost 700,000 hectares and while tur (pigeon peas) area has decreased by over 200,000 hectares." Down to Earth. To produce maize, rice and sugarcane for ethanol India needs fertilizers. "Natural gas is a critical raw material used in the production of fertilizers. The production of ammonia, phosphoric acid and other chemicals in the fertilizer industry relies heavily on natural gas."  TLI. In 2023, India imported almost $10.5 billion worth of fertilizers from 64 countries, including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Canada, and others. WITS. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer in the world and "The production of urea depends heavily on natural gas, which acts both as a chemical feedstock and and as an energy store." Global Agriculture. In 2024, India imported nearly $15 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (WITS) because we do not produce enough. To keep the cost of food down the government subsidizes fertilizers. "By way of illustration, India has been buying urea at $935 per tonne but selling it to farmers at only $70 per tonne, a mind-boggling subsidy of $865 per tonne," wrote Sudipto Mundle. The government should pass the full cost of imports to consumers, which will reduce consumption and help in reducing the fiscal and current account deficits, thus reducing the pressure on the rupee. On 13 May, "India...banned sugar exports with immediate effect until 30 September 2026, or until further orders, the government said in a notification." India is the second largest sugar producer in the world. Reuters. Stopping exports means earning less foreign exchange. The rupee is trading at 95 to one dollar (in. investing.com) with the RBI fighting to keep it from dropping to 100 to one dollar. To protect the rupee the government wants to reduce spending foreign exchange on oil imports through ethanol from crops, which need imported fertilizers using forex. Diversion of land to maize means higher imports of pulses and cooking oil with forex. Stopping sugar exports loses forex. Passing on the cost of imports may cause double-digit rise in prices. Does anyone know what they are doing? Headless chickens (idioms) come to mind.