Saturday, May 09, 2026

Endurance could be painful.

"The US economy created 115,000 jobs in April as businesses kept hiring despite the economic fallout from the US-Israel war in Iran. The increase was stronger than expected, with the total almost twice as much as economists had forecast." The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. BBC. "Unemployment rate of 5% or lower is often considered full employment in the real-world context." Zero unemployment would result in higher wages and lead to higher prices and inflation. Investopedia. "New orders for US factory goods rose more than expected in March, led by surging demand for electronics products amid the artificial intelligence investment boom." "Factory orders were up 1.5% on the month," from 0.3% in February and by "3.7% on a year-over-year basis in March." Reuters. In contrast, "War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran's economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses." The US blockade of Iran's ports has dealt "a devastating blow to Iran's already-battered economy. Government revenue has dried up just as the needs of its population are rising." WSJ. "Early signs are that after years of dodging restrictions, this Iranian shadow fleet may have met its match in the US naval blockade - its ships now appear unable to leave the Persian Gulf." WSJ. The moderates in the Iranian government "believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump," while "A growing camp of hardliners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices shooting and increase the pressure on Trump." WSJ. Even more virulent, "a small but influential hardline faction has intensified efforts to sabotage a potential deal with Washington," and this "ultra-hardline group has ramped up efforts across the media, in parliament and on the streets to advocate against an agreement with the US, arguing that only by defeating Washington can Iran secure a favorable deal." "Known as 'Jebhe-ye Paydari' - or the Endurance Front - its members are often described by observers as 'Super Revolutionaries' who view themselves as guardians of the values of the 1979 revolution that overthrew the pro-Western Shah." CNN. They may be afraid of being accused of being 'Takfiris' (wikipedia), having killed Muslim Iranians. They may remember the hanging of Saddam Hussein (wikipedia) as a punishment for losing against the US. Also higher oil prices mean higher revenue. Already, "Images of bareheaded women sipping coffee in cafes in Tehran, in apparent defiance of the Islamic Republic's strict dress rule, have stirred interest outside Iran," but "the rights of women are still restricted and they live under a system that arrested tens of thousands of people following the January protests and thousands more, including women, in the current war, according to rights groups." NDTV. There is a lot of accounting to be done. The Endurance Front don't want to endure that. Could be painful.                                                                                 

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