Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Eat less for the nation.

"India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, government order said.., as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases of the metals and ease pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves." Reuters. "The ongoing West Asia crisis is a 'live balance of payments stress test' for the country - directly impacting inflation, the exchange rate and the current account, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." "Nageswaran called India's exposure to the West Asian crisis structural and cautioned that the 'readings' are not of a temporary shock that will self-correct when the situation stabilizes." TOI. Why not? What is he not telling us? After all, in December 2025, "RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra...characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a 'rare Goldilocks period', that marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation."  DD News. Also, "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by 7.7 billion US dollars, standing at $690 billion for the week ending May 1." News on Air. Also, "The IGoM was informed that the country is secure, and there is no shortage of any petroleum product,..India has 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of Natural Gas and 45 days of LPG rolling stock," as per the Ministry of Defence press release." ET. If everything is hunky dory, as we Indians like to say, why is the CEA warning about a "live balance of payments stress test"? The last time we heard of a 'balance of payments' problem was in 1991, when we ended up pledging 67 tons of our gold to pay for our imports. wikipedia. Now, "As of September-end, out of total gold holdings of 880.8 tonnes, the RBI maintained 575.8 tonnes within India, while 290.3 tonnes remained in the custody of the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements." TOI. We don't have to airlift any gold, it's already there. How convenient. So, what are they not telling us? The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Real GDP was above 12% since 2004, 6.2% (2014-2026) and below 5.5% (2019-2026). "GDP calculation revision with a new base year (2022-23) has revealed that earlier estimates (base year 2011-12) had overstated GDP." "Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has turned negative, reflecting diminished investor confidence." Vajiram & Ravi. "Since the beginning of the war, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has burnt nearly $38 billion in forex reserves, leading to a decline in import cover to 10.6 months from 11.3 months before the start of the war. Moreover, the RBI built up its gold reserves over the past year, and they now account for about 16% of total reserves. Excluding these, the import cover drops by about two months."  Mint. That means 8.6 months. In 2008, the subprime crisis affected the global economy with banking and trade severely affected (wikipedia) and the price of oil spiked to $128.08 per barrel in July (eia.gov) but we did not hear such alarming warnings. In 2024, India received $138 billion of inward remittance. Mint. As financial pressures build up all over the world, these might fall and the current account deficit would increase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked people to decrease the use of petrol, not to purchase gold and to use less cooking oil and India could borrow foreign exchange from Indian expatriates. Reuters. If Indians cut down on food they will need less cooking oil as well as less gas. That is double saving. Ingenious.    

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