Monday, May 18, 2026
It's 60+3.
"India's services exports touched $421.3 billion in FY26, surpassing $418.3 billion estimated earlier, boosting total goods and services exports to a record $863.1 billion last fiscal year, an official said." "Merchandise exports grew 0.93% in FY26 to $441.78 billion from $437.7 billion in FY25." ET. This glowing report of our export growth omits to report on our imports, and hence, our trade balance. Our combined (services + merchandise) trade resulted in an estimated deficit of -$119.30 billion in FY26, compared to -$94.66 billion last year. pib.gov.in. "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.38 billion in April," compared to $20.67 billion in March. Merchandise exports rose to $43.56 billion in April from $38.92 billion in March, while imports jumped from $59.59 billion in March to $71.94 billion in April. Estimated services exports stood at $37.24 billion and imports at $16.66 billion. ET. "India's trade deficit is likely to remain under pressure in the coming months as elevated crude prices, supply-side disruptions and potential global demand slowdown weighed on exports, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities." Rupee depreciation could increase competitiveness and the increased duty on gold will provide some short-term relief. Electronics deficit jumped from $0.7 billion to $7.6 billion. ET. Not just gold, petrol and diesel prices were also increased by Rs 3 per liter, while the price of CNG, used by all public transport in Delhi by law, was increased by Rs 2. TOI. This was apparently necessary because, "Amid high oil prices. state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are losing Rs 20 per liter on the sale of petrol and around Rs 100 on diesel sale, said Sujata Sharma, joint secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas." "On 27 March, the finance ministry reduced the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per liter." So this is an increase of just 4%. Mint. We should be pleased because the price of fuel has gone up only 3.2-3.4% in India it has gone up by 44.5-48.1% in the US, 23.8-50.6% in Vietnam and 15.4-19.8% in Italy. MC. Are we so lucky, or is this just another example of our 'Godi (lapdog) Media' (wikipedia)? "A widely -shared chart posted by many pro-government journalists on social media highlights that India's recent fuel hike was as low as 3%, while countries like the US, UAE and Canada saw spikes ranging from 30% to 80%." This is due to Base Effect, because India's retail prices of fuel were very high compared to other countries when crude prices were low. Comparing retail prices in 2016 with today's, prices in India have jumped by 63%, in Vietnam by 60%, in the US by 36% and in Italy by 34%. That is because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been taxing fuel without restraint. Taxes comprised Rs 46 out of the retail price of Rs 64 per liter in 2016, Rs 60 out of Rs 80 in 2020 and Rs 62 out of Rs 95 per liter in 2021. The Wire. Increasing the price of fuel will increase transport costs of all goods and services. "India's retail inflation quickened to 3.48% in April, driven by dearer food prices, government data showed." Reuters. So, they must be hoping that it will remain within the government target of 4% +/- 2% on either side (Reuters). It is not just high prices but also the rupee which has dropped to 96.30 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). This will increase the cost of all imports and, since higher prices mean a lower value of the rupee, as prices rise the rupee will fall even further. The only solution may be to increase interest rates by a hefty amount, say 100 basis points. That will reduce consumption, and support the rupee by increasing 'carry trade' in which traders borrow currencies with lower returns and invest in one which gives higher returns (Investipedia). It will increase returns for savers.But, it may also cause a severe recession and a fall in share prices. And so, will need guts and character. Not for weasels.
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