Unsecured growth.

"India's inflation outlook remains stable despite the US-Israel-Iran war pushing global crude prices higher," and, "For 2025-26, RBI has projected CPI inflation at 2.1% with the March quarter at 3.2%." Mint. "India's key inflation rate accelerated to 2.75% in January,..returning to the central bank's target rate for the first time since August." Reuters. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was told by the government to target consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 2-4% with a 2% band on either side till March 2026. BI. With inflation at such a low level, an increase of 10% in the price of crude oil will add only about 40-60 basis points (bps), retaining the rate of inflation still within the target range. "For India, each $1 increase in crude adds roughly $2 billion to the annual import bill, putting pressure on the trade balance," and "Fertilizer prices could rise sharply if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, potentially increasing India's subsidy burden." India holds "crude inventories estimated to cover around 74 days of consumption." ET. The benchmark Brent Crude is trading at $115.71 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The retail price of petrol ranges from a low of Rs 94.30 per liter in Chandigarh to a high of Rs 107.49 per liter in Thiruvananthapura. goodreturns. in. Any significant rise in the cost of fuel will immediately feed into transport cost and raise prices all round. "Data from the RBI showed aggregate deposits grew 10.2% in the financial year to Jan 31, with banks adding Rs 23 trillion. Credit expanded faster rising 12.2%, or Rs 22.3 trillion over the same period." TOI. "Household debt has grown at roughly twice the pace of nominal GDP, reaching about Rs 1.5 trillion," "Personal loans, credit cards and gold loans are doing the heavy lifting." "For many young Indians credit bridges the gap between aspiration and income." "Digital lending removes friction but preserves consequences." "Unsecured credit has thin recovery values and nasty habit of herd defaults." And "By the time the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio moves from 1.8% to 4%, the liquidity bridge will have already collapsed for non-bank financial companies," wrote Krishnan Raganathan. India has been the fastest -growing major economy since 2021, But "Half of India's population also continues to rely on agriculture for subsistence." "That keeps GDP per capita far below other major economies - it is 12 times smaller than Japan's and 20 times smaller than Germany's." "Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe India will require and average GDP growth of 12.2% to truly tackle underemployment." ET. The RBI is planning to buy government bonds worth Rs 1 trillion to boost liquidity in banks. ET. If prices rise for a few months before coming down, households may be forced to default on their debts. Will banks be able to absorb the shock? Unsecured credit leads to unsecured growth. "Education is not only for exams but for life," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At least we'll be able to count our losses.