Bear attack.

""Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Sanjay Malhotra said corporates, banks, central and state governments and the private sector are in robust shape, evidence that the economy is 'healthy and robust'." So the "Goldilocks phase can be sustained." ET. "Describing 2025 as a 'defining year for Indian growth,' the government also defined it as the country's 'Goldilocks moment,' with high growth and low inflation." As "India has benefited from surging service revenues (from India's booming IT services firms) and exports of made-in-India Apple iPhone (estimated at $23 billion in the first half of 2025 alone). Both sectors are exempt from Trump tariffs." Forbes. Then, three days ago, "President Donald Trump...said that US had begun a major combat operation against Iran, after Israel said it has launched 'preventive strikes' against Tehran." NDTV. Crude oil and natural gas prices jumped, with Brent crude briefly hitting $82 per barrel." BBC. "The rupee fell to its weakest in a month," As "The RBI likely stepped into the market, traders said, while dollar sales by foreign banks also helped curb losses in the rupee, which fell 0.5% to close at 91.47 per dollar in its steepest drop in more than a month." Reuters. It is trading at 91.80 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. The rise in the price of oil may take some time to reflect in our cost of purchase, as "The price of the Indian crude oil basket, which represents the cost of oil imported into the country, has averaged $59.92 per barrel in January, down from $62.2 in December, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell." Mint. So, "International oil prices rose about 9% following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran," but "retail prices are not expected to be raised immediately, as the government continues to follow a calibrated policy of allowing companies to build margins when international prices are low and cushioning consumers when rates rise." ET. As the price of crude oil fell the government increased taxes on petrol and diesel so that the retail price of petrol stayed steady at around Rs 95 per liter in Delhi (goodreturns.in). In 2024, the Congress alleged that the Centre had collected over Rs 36 trillion from taxes on petroleum products in 5 years. ET. That figure may have crossed Rs 50 trillion by now, an enormous revenue for the government. If the government increases the cost of fuel it will immediately feed into the cost of transport and raise prices of all goods in India. A weak rupee will immediately raise the cost of imports and further add to inflation. "For India, each $1 increase in crude adds roughly $2 billion to the annual import bill, putting pressure on the trade balance, JM Financial noted." "Fertiliser prices could rise sharply if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, potentially increasing India's subsidy burden." ET. Already, "India's current account deficit (CAD) rose to USD $13.2 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, in the December quarter from USD 11.3 billion in the years ago period,..according to RBI data." PTI. Trouble with Goldilocks is that the bears come. And she runs away.