"The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could pose short-term challenges for the India economy by pushing up oil prices and disrupting trade flows, though the country's long-term growth trajectory is unlikely to be significantly affected, according to Nagesh Kumar, external member of the Monetary Policy Committed of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)." TOI. Not just oil, "Qatar, India's largest supplier of India's natural gas, has declared force majeure on deliveries following a halt in production in the wake of an Iranian drone strike - a disruption that has led to a cut in supplies to Indian industry by up to 40%, sources said." ET. "Adani Total Gas has sharply raised prices for supplies to industrial clients," and "Lower gas supplies have marginally hit production at some Indian fertiliser companies." Reuters. The cost of buying fuel for Indian consumers not only depends on the selling price of oil in dollars but also the buying price in rupees which, in turn, depends on the exchange rate of the two currencies. The rupee hit a low of 92.123 against the US dollar on 4 March but hardened to 91.933 yesterday. investing.com. "The central bank was apparently judiciously selling the greenback in the last 10-15 sessions,..as the RBI was looking to protect the Rs 91 level," but now "the RBI will look to safeguard the psychological Rs 92 per dollar level, and could continue selling the greenback in both the onshore and off-shore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to maintain the current level." MC. Spending dollars on buying more expensive oil and gas and on defending the rupee will increase our current account deficit (CAD). Already, "The CAD stood at $13.2 billion, or 1.3% of GDP in the third quarter (September-December) of the fiscal year 2025-26, compared to $11.3 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, a year earlier.' Reuters. The GDP, using better methodology, was updated to base year 2022-23 from 2011-12, showed India's nominal GDP at Rs Rs 345.47 trillion compared to Rs 357.14 trillion using the previous method. A smaller nominal GDP could result in lower tax collections and raise the fiscal deficit to 4.51% from 4.36% of GDP, wrote Pragya Srivastava & Payal Bhattacharya. Crude oil prices collapsed from $132.83 per barrel in July 2008 to $29.78 per barrel in January 2016 and, apart from a brief period between February and October 2022, has stayed well below $90 per barrel. indexmundi.com. Mr Narendra Modi first came to power in May 2014 (wikipedia) and soft prices of crude oil allowed him to rake in a total of around Rs 40 trillion by raising taxes on retail fuel sales in India (ppac.gov.in). The government may have to lower taxes on retail fuel to keep prices constant, which would result in a tax shortfall, or pass on higher costs to consumers, which would instantly add to the cost of transport and raise prices all round. Higher inflation reduces the value of the rupee and could result in further weakening of the currency. Apart from selling dollars, does the RBI have any other ideas? Would it share them with us? Just asking..
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