Tuesday, March 24, 2026
All inclusive growth.
"Stocks rose and oil prices fell sharply after President Donald Trump...said the United States would postpone further strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, pending the outcome of negotiations." CNN. "The Indians rupee opened stronger this morning (24 March), rising 34 paise to 93.64 against the US dollar, compared with the previous close of 93.98 per dollar." On 21 March, "So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have taken out Rs 936.98 billion from the stock market alone, data combined from NSDL and BSE showed." TOI. As foreign investors repatriate this money in dollars it puts downward pressure on the rupee. "Mutual funds have sold Indian government bonds at a record pace in March so far, " as, "Mutual funds have net sold government bonds worth Rs 356 billion ($3.82 billion) so far this month, a record for any month, clearing house data showed." Reuters. Large number of bonds for sale results in a drop in prices and a consequent rise in yields. "Indian bond yields surged the most in nearly 30 months and ended at their highest since January last year," as the "Yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond jumped 10 basis points to close at 6.83%, CCIL data showed." ET. Higher yield means higher cost of borrowing for the government which would increase the amount it pays in interest. Already, "Data from the Union Budget shows that the government will spend about Rs 14.04 trillion on interest payments, making it the biggest component of total expenditure," while spending on rural development will be Rs 2.73 trillion and on education just Rs 1.39 trillion. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been buying up government bonds to support prices and lower yields. The RBI balance sheet has jumped an unprecedented Rs 5.58 trillion, from Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025 to Rs 21.34 trillion on 28 February 2026. The RBI aggressively cut its policy rate by 125 basis points (bps), from 6.50% to 5.25% in 2025. indbiz.gov.in. This was done to increase liquidity and bring borrowing costs down. But liquidity has been tight because retail investors migrated to mutual funds from bank deposits in search of higher returns, credit growth has been higher than bank deposit growth (ET) and the RBI has been selling dollars, to prevent precipitous falls in the rupee, thus creating a shortage of liquidity in the system. The RBI will earn interest on the Rs 21.34 trillion worth of bonds from the government which it will transfer to the government as dividend. The government could lend this money to the private sector for building infrastructure thus increasing private sector investment, wrote Madan Sabnavis. How will that work? The private sector will invest only if returns are comparable to, or higher, than other investments. If the RBI is printing money to finance government spending it may lead to inflation, and, finally, it is the government's money going round in circles and is not a surplus for extra spending on infrastructure. If the RBI tries to reduce its bond holding it will lead to a tightening in liquidity, a drop in prices and a rise in yields. The US Federal Reserve has decided to resume buying $40 billion worth of Treasury bills per month after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion at present. Reuters. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra started his term saying his focus will be on "fostering economic growth, ensuring stability in policy making and expanding financial inclusion." BS. These are political objectives for the elected government. The RBI should control inflation, which erodes the value of the currency, maintain adequate reserves against geopolitical emergencies and protect our money from bank frauds and cybercrime. That will be true growth. Not a political gimmick.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment