Monday, May 05, 2025

Will civil defence work?

"On 7 May 2025, a national-level civil defence rehearsal will be held across 244 officially designated Civil Defence districts." "The drill will include five major components" - "Sirens will be tested", workshops will be held to train civilians on how to respond in the event of an attack, cities will simulate sudden blackouts, strategic buildings will be camouflaged and "Officials will rehearse evacuation plans, moving people from high-risk zones to safe areas." ET. There were no such preparations in 2019, when Indian warplanes bombed an alleged terrorist training camp at Balakot inside Pakistan on 26 February. The following day, "Pakistan shot down an Indian warplane and took its pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman prisoner." An Indian helicopter was shot down by friendly fire killing 6 airmen on board and one civilian on the ground. Pakistan did not lose any planes. wikpedia. This happened just after 14 February when 40 CRPF soldiers were killed by a suicide car bomb at Pulwama in Kashmir. wikipedia. Mr Modi won a landslide victory in the general election held in April 2019. BBC. On 22 April 2025, terrorists killed 25 tourists, of whom 24 were Hindus one was Christian, and one Muslim ponywallah. wikipedia. Hindu men were humiliated by checking them for circumcision. This time there has been no military response from India. Probably because, "The Indian Air Force is 'very badly off in numbers', Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh admitted.., pointing out that it must induct 40 fighter jets every year to stay combat ready." HT. In February, Marshall Singh "questioned the ability of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) to meet the air force's critical requirements in the backdrop of a lingering delay in the supply of new fighter jets, saying he has 'no confidence' in the state-run plane maker." HT. HAL has been developing its own Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), the Tejas which compares with other aircraft of its category but the F16 is heavier, faster, has a longer range and carries a bigger payload of weapons with a longer engagement range. DefenceXP. In response to the Pahalgam attack India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty which "allocated  the three eastern rivers - the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej - of the Indus basin to India, while 80% of the three western ones - the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab - to Pakistan." "More than 80% of Pakistan's agriculture and around a third of its hydropower depend on its Indus basin's water." BBC. Decades of corrupt army rule has ruined Pakistan's economy. "Fifty years ago, the average Pakistani had a higher income than his South Asian peers. Today, he earns half as much." The Pk Banker. India has stopped all imports from Pakistan, banned Pakistani civilian flights over India and banned Pakistani ships from entering Indian ports. TOI. Pakistan has foreign exchange reserves less than $15 billion compared to India's $688 billion. ET. "Pakistan has warned India that any move to restrict water into the country would be considered an 'act of war'." ABC. Will a desperate Pakistan Army attack if the economy tanks and there are riots by hungry people? Hence, civil defence rehearsals in India. Trouble is that Indian cities are so congested that trying to evacuate an area will cause enormous traffic jams, and more congestion, and regular load shedding in many Indian cities has prompted many to install inverters which will automatically light up the dwelling. Who will blink first in this game of chicken  (wikipedia)? Hope we don't need civil defence.   

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