Thursday, May 08, 2025

Listen to Laffer.

"India and the UK...sealed a landmark free trade agreement (FTA) that will lower tariffs on 99% of Indian exports and would make it easier for British firms to export whiskey, cars and other products to India, besides boosting the overall trade basket." Duties on cars are to be reduced from 100% to 10% over 10-15 years. ET. After the congratulations and celebrations, it was revealed that it will take 3 months for lawyers to add fine print, following which the treaty will be signed. After that it will take another year for the UK to get it through Parliament. The UK exports various models of cars such as "Bentley, Jaguar Land Rover, Aston Martin, Rolls Royce and Mini," as well as Triumph motorcycles. NDTV. The cost of a Bentley starts at Rs 41 million, that of a Jaguar starts at Rs 7.29 million and the aptly named Mini starts at an eye-watering Rs 4.49 million. carwale.com. Those prices are irrelevant to 99% of Indians, as 88% of Indians are unable to afford even an entry level car, according to Maruti Suzuki Chairman RV Bhargava. CNBC. He is probably referring to the 800cc Maruti Alto whose price starts at just Rs 3,25,000. carwale.com. The reduction of customs duty on Scotch means that all whiskies will become cheaper because the whiskies made in India, bizarrely named 'Indian Made Foreign Liquor' (IMFL), are blended with Scotch. TOI. Also, IMFL whiskies are taxed at 67-80% (BS) and these taxes must be reduced to remain competitive with Scotch. But, not just whiskies and cars. The Indian government levies the highest possible taxes on anything they can find. Non-alcoholic carbonated and caffeinated beverages bear a tax of 28% goods and services tax (GST) plus 12% cess, for a total of 40%, wrote Aruna Sharma. "The median global tax rate for carbonated beverages hovers around 18.4%." As a result, "Between 2018-19 and 2019-20, many companies operating in the carbonated soft drink (CSD) segment reported revenue losses and declines in their GST contributions." Slashing the rate of taxes would increase consumption and GST collections, according to the Laffer Curve (Investopedia). Besides it would vastly increase earnings of India's horticulture industry, which is the second-largest in the world with an output of 351.9 million tonnes. India will save Rs 1.8 trillion because of the fall in the international price of crude oil. TOI. But the government will probably just increase the excise duty on oil as it did in April  (ET). If tax collections on whiskies actually fall the government will surely squeeze more from us through other means. Still, at least there will be an illusion of lower bills for parties. We need illusions. Cheers.  

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