Saturday, May 31, 2025
7.4% growth on GST and Kumbh Mela.
According to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), India's "GDP grew by 7.4% in Q4 FY25, surprising observers with a performance driven by a 12.7% increase in net indirect taxes. This spike in tax revenue played a significant role in boosting overall economic activity during the quarter." GST collections came in at Rs 1.96 trillion in January, at Rs 1.84 trillion in February and at Rs 1.96 trillion again in March. ET. "The economy in 2024-25 hit a four-year low of 6.5%, slowing down from the 9.2% growth recorded in FY24." Growth in the fourth quarter, ending 31 March, beat estimates after jumping to 7.4%. ET. "India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has cautiously acknowledged the potential contribution of the Maha Kumbh Mela (wikipedia) to the country's fourth quarter consumption in FY25," as reports came in that the Mela "facilitated an eye-watering Rs 2.8 trillion in economic activity, turning the world's largest gathering into an economic juggernaut." After a report by Dun & Bradstreet estimated the total economic output "includes Rs 900 billion in direct spending, Rs 800 billion in indirect economic activity, and a further Rs 1.1 trillion in induced impacts, driven largely by increased local consumption and economic circulation among vendors, workers and service providers." Rs 2.3 trillion came from transportation, food, tourism and accommodation. The rest Rs 500 billion was from capital expenditure to build the infrastructure. The Kumbh Mela is celebrated four times over 12 years, that is every three years. prayagraj.nic.in. This is a one-off event and the Rs 2.8 trillion boost cannot be attributed to government policies or traditional economic sectors such as manufacturing, services or agriculture. "India has moved past another important milestone by overtaking Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy, with a GDP of over $4 trillion." However, "India lags behind in research and development," and "India's rise has also been marked by jobless growth." "The growth is very iniquitous, with 1% of the country's population holding more than 40% of its wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 3%." DH. "Since 2004-2005, the overall employment rate in India fell from 42% to 35% in 2017-2018 before rising again to 41%." "India was growing at 7.8% per annum from 2003 to 2015," but "from 2014 to 2024, the growth rate fell to 5.8% per annum." "About 28 million unemployed educated youth are looking for decent jobs, and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) are not actively looking for employment," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. "As compared to 1990, India's economy is now 11.5 times bigger, while the population is only 1.6 times larger. That means that the per person or the per capita income has grown substantially from about $360 in 1990 to $2,700 in 2025." To become an advanced economy with a per capita income of $14,000 by 2047, India has to grow at 7.8% in dollar terms for the next 20 years, wrote Ajit Ranade. That means more exports, more manufacturing and more jobs. Let's not depend on the Kumbh Mela. No one got any nectar.
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