Saturday, May 07, 2022

A little Ubuntu for us, please.

"A growing food security threat is set to push Prime Minister Narendra Modi into a conundrum: continue sending wheat to countries hit by dwindling supplies from the war in Ukraine or stockpile food at home to fend off high inflation," ET. Food and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal hoped that India would be able to export 15 million tons of wheat this year compared to 7.2 million in 2021-22. But, "Hundreds of acres of wheat crops were damaged during India's hottest March on record, causing yields to potentially slump by as much as 50% in some pockets of the country according to a Bloomberg survey." So is this the Indian version of "Ubuntu" which translates to "humanity towards others" and "the belief in a universal bond of sharing that connects all humanity"?  Like in 2021, when "India has shipped 5.84 crore (58.4 million) doses of indigenous Covid-19 vaccines to 70 countries, as against 3.48 crore (34.8 million) jabs it has administered across the country since inoculation drive began on January 16," TOI. Now we are busy hiding the number of deaths. According to a recent report from the WHO, "there were 4.7 million Covid deaths in India - 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally," NDTV. "However, India officially classifies only around 481,000 deaths in the period as 'covid deaths'," wrote Nandita Venkatesan & Tanay Sukumar. "At least six studies compiled by Mint show that the median estimate for excess deaths in India during the pandemic hovers around 4 million. The Economist puts the upper limit at 9.4 million with a midpoint estimate of 5.7 million." Exporting wheat means that the government does not have to buy wheat from farmers to set a floor under market prices under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme, wikipedia. "Last year, India spent 856 billion rupees ($11.2 billion) buying a record 43.34 million tonnes of wheat from farmers, filling national granaries and boosting national debt," BS. Purchases could fall to below 30 million tonnes this year, saving a lot of money for the government. Exporting wheat will bring precious foreign exchange (FX). India's FX reserves fell by $2.695 billion to $597.728 billion. It has fallen a total of $34 billion or 5.4% since 24 February, NDTV. In an emergency meeting the Reserve Bank (RBI) suddenly raised borrowing costs by 40 basis to 4.40% on 4 May, NDTV. In fact, "India's central bank made the serious mistake of not only ignoring the country's inflation buildup, but pretending it didn't exist," wrote Andy Mukherjee. That pretense was concealed by, "The RBI has already spent over $25 billion from its reserves to defend the rupee. But for its intervention, the exchange rate would have been near Rs 80 to a dollar," wrote MK Venu. A stronger rupee lowers inflation by lowering the cost of imports. Perhaps Ubuntu should start with 1.4 billion Indian citizens. Charity, after all, begins at home.     

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