Wednesday, May 04, 2022

Others are serious.

"In an unscheduled press briefing on Wednesday (yesterday), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das announced that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in an off-cycle (meaning emergency) meet unanimously voted to hike rates. The policy repo rate has been hiked by 40 bps (basis points) to 4.40% with immediate effect," ET. Why now? What was the emergency? And why by 40 bps? Central banks usually change rates in multiples of 25 bps. "Australia's central bank on Tuesday raised its cash rate by a surprisingly large 25 basis points to 0.35%, the first hike in over a decade, and flagged more to come as it pulls down the curtain on massive pandemic stimulus," Reuters. "The policy sea change came after consumer price inflation spiked to a 20-year peak of 5.1% in the first quarter, led by petrol, housing, food and education." The Australian government has called a general election on 21 May 2022, wikipedia, and normally a central bank will refrain from any policy change for fear of being accused of influencing election results in favor of one party. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points to 1.50% on Wednesday, its fourth hike in a row as it seeks to reduce any second-round effects from sharply rising inflation," yahoo. Why all the panic? Because, in the US, "The Federal Reserve delivered the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 and signaled it would keep hiking at that pace over the next couple of meetings, unleashing the most aggressive policy action in decades to combat soaring inflation," ET. While markets crashed in India on news of RBI action, markets zoomed in the US. "The BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) index plunged 1,306 points or 2.29 percent to close at 55,669. While the broader NSE Nifty settled 392 points or 2.29 percent lower at 16,678," TOI. "On the other hand, "The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 932.27 points or 2.81%, to close at 34,061.06. The S&P 500 gained 2.99% to 4,300.17. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite jumped 3.19% to 12,964.86," CNBC. US markets jumped in relief that the Fed refrained from hiking its Funds rate by 75 bps, whereas Indian markets are used to the RBI's facetious reaction to inflation. Just last month the RBI kept its rate at 4% while raising its inflation forecast to 5.7% from 4.5% in February, ET. Just after that, retail inflation for March came in at 6.95% compared to 6.05% in February, ET. Even now it has raised its rate by a curious 40 bps as if to try and bring inflation down just a tad but still keep it high. Probably because high prices increase tax collections. GST revenue collection soared to a record Rs 1.68 trillion in April, moneycontrol. This is nothing, rates have to rise far higher, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will not like short-term rates to go all the way to 6.25% because that could mean long-term sovereign bond yields of 8% or more." There would be no problem if they remember that it is the Reserve Bank of India and not the Reserve Bank of government. But, why risk their jobs?    

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