Different, but the same.

"Sanjay Malhotra, the revenue secretary, has been appointed as new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor by the Narendra Modi government." "Sanjay Malhotra, a 1990 batch Indian Administrative Service (IAS) Officer from the Rajasthan cadre, holds a Bachelor's degree from IIT Kanpur and earned his Master's in Public Policy from Princeton University." TOI. He takes over from Mr Shaktikanta Das, who was a retired IAS officer with a Master's degree in History, when he was appointed as the Governor of RBI in December 2018. wikipedia. Mr Malhotra held a press conference in which, "Underscoring the value of consultation in policy-making, he pledged to continue the RBI's practice of engaging with stakeholders. He added that knowledge and expertise are not the monopoly of any one institution and consultation will remain a key pillar of our policy making process." Mint. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank of India is fully owned by the government of India." Its Preamble directs it "to have a modern monetary policy framework to meet the challenge of an increasingly complex economy, to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth." rbi.org.in. Hence, "consultation" will decide policy and "knowledge and expertise" in economics is not necessary. "Since its inception in 1935, the RBI has had 25 governors," and "Of them, as many as 14 were civil servants, seven were professional economists, three were from the financial sector and only one from the RBi cadre of officers." Mr Modi had difference of opinion with Prof Raghuram Rajan and Prof Urjit Patel, both economists, and hence prefers civil servants. The Print. Prof Rajan opposed the demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes (HT) which failed in its objectives and was disastrous for the economy as growth fell to 4% in 2019-20 (Mint). Demonetisation was imposed suddenly on 8 November 2016 (wikipedia) and the GDP growth rate fell precipitously from 8.26% in 2016 to a mere 3.87% in 2019 (Forbes), the year before Covid pandemic. Prof Patel resigned in December 2018, nine months before his tenure was to end. ET. It was because he refused to allow the government to loot Rs 2-3 trillion from RBI reserves to win the general election in 2019, wrote former RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya. With Mr Das as governor, the RBI transferred Rs 1.76 trillion to the government in 2019. TOI. Much better to appoint an IAS officer who will prefer "consultation" to "knowledge and expertise". "The structure of the UPSC (Union Public Service Commission) is such that people enter the IAS with a variety of educational backgrounds, and end up in a system where a potato expert is looking after defence, a veterinary doctor is supervising engineers, a history graduate is dictating health policy and so on. The scheme of transfers and postings is such that there is no match between the expertise of an officer and the post she is expected to hold." "What the senior IAS officer at the most does is that he acts as an interpreter between a marginalized technocrat and the semi-literate politician," wrote Shah Faesal. Hence the need for consultations. How frequently?    

Foolproof system.

"Indian school Education is in quite a terrible state. Research studies have revealed high absenteeism, and barely half the teachers were actually teaching at the time of surveys." "In 2009, India participated in the Programme for International Students Assessment (PISA) school rankings." "It came 72 out of 74 countries," and "India's reaction was to stop participating in PISA!" Now two Indian schools "have been adjudged 'best school in the world' by T4 Education," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "We run nine schools, with a total of 2,700 students." "The schools are completely free - no tuition fees, no charges for books, uniforms, the midday meal or anything else." "Simply put, our schools are better resourced and supported than most schools in India." And yet, "About 20% of our students do not achieve foundational literacy and numeracy (FLN) by grade 3, and 6% not even by grade 5," wrote Anurag Behar. Because of poverty. The University Grants Commission (UGC) is aiming for 'flexibility'. Students can join and complete courses at their choosing and even "be eligible for courses without a background in those specific disciplines". How can this help when, "ILO data show that less than 40% of Indians are engaged in work that matches their education level - India, at 124, is one of the lowest in this ILO list of 145 countries. A little under a quarter of Indians hold jobs for which they are overqualified. But many more hold jobs for which they are under-educated - 40%, one of the highest shares in the world," wrote Chandrima Banerjee. One reason could be that companies are deliberately employing unqualified people to pay lower wages, which is creating unemployment among the qualified workers, forcing them to accept lower-paid posts for which they are overqualified. The Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) clearly shows rising levels of unemployment along with rising levels of literacy, with nearly full employment for the illiterate and highest unemployment among those educated higher than secondary level. TOI. In Delhi University "most students are now relying on YouTube instead of books for learning." This, despite "several universities in the West have put their courses online, and these are of excellent quality and free to download." There are other online courses free of cost. But "these lectures assume a basic understanding and prior knowledge of the subject, which most students feel they lack. The courses are also rigorous and demanding of their time and attention, which they are reluctant to put in," wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. Poor education levels and poor value for higher education. Worryingly, India is projected to have 350 million children by 2050 according to a UNICEF report. TIE. However, 2050 is far away and elections are to be won now. So, "Cash handout schemes have, of late, become politicians', across state and central governments, preferred social welfare instruments to secure votes - or bribe voters," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Keep them illiterate, give handouts, win elections. Foolproof system.

Two divine beings.

"A political controversy erupted...after one Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lawmaker attempted to link billionaire George Soros with Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and another called him a 'traitor', triggering protests from the Congress." This accusation was in retaliation to Congress MPs, including Gandhi, wearing stickers saying "Modi, Adani Ek Hain (Modi, Adani are the same)." HT. In addition, "The BJP...alleged that former Congress President Sonia Gandhi had links to an organisation financed by the George Soros Foundation and which has backed the idea of separating Kashmir from India." India Today. In an outburst of paranoia, "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP has accused the State Department and 'deep state' elements in the US of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi." Reuters. Apparently, Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which is financed by the US State Department's USAID, in association with Soros and Rockefeller Foundation, is targeting Adani and Mr Modi. The US called these accusations "disappointing". TOI. "The French investigative media outlet Mediapart has condemned the BJP for 'exploiting' its reporting and stated that there are 'no available facts' to support allegations of a conspiracy involving the US State Department, US billionaire George Soros and the Indian opposition," and called it "fake news". The Wire. Why is George Soros a bogeyman for the BJP? "Soros has openly expressed his dislike for the Narendra Modi government," and has accused Mr Modi of "creating a Hindu nationalist state, imposing punitive measures on Kashmir". ET. So what? Indian states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have voted against Mr Modi. Does it make them anti-Indian? "Today, Delhi and Islamabad both claim Kashmir in full," and "An armed revolt has been waged against Indian rule in the region for three decades, claiming tens of thousands of lives." BBC. What is Soros compared to Pakistan with nuclear weapons? Soros may have been involved in the Hindenburg Report targeting "brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme" by Indian businessman Gautam Adani. Soros has a net worth of $8.5 billion, whereas Adani is reportedly worth $64.3 billion (Forbes). No competition. In the US, Soros is an open supporter of the Democrats and contributed $720,000 to the Biden Victory Fund. Republicans accuse Soros of funding "Over 70 prosecutors across the US, advocating for reforms like reduced prosecution for non-violent crimes and adjustments to bail regulations - changes that the Republicans argue have led to rising crime rates in certain areas." ET. However, Soros is living freely in the US while Indian investigative agencies - Central Bureau of Investigation, Enforcement Directorate and the National Investigation Agency - are being used against Indian nationals. The Wire. Mr Modi is the prime minister of India while Soros is an individual. So why is the BJP so paranoid about him? It could be a mix of falling economic growth to 5.4%, (BS), a low employment-to-population ratio of just 53.4% (BS) and Mr Modi's helplessness in helping Hindus being targeted in Bangladesh (BBC). Soros believes he has divine origin and so does Mr Modi, who said, "I was convinced that God has sent me. This energy could not be from my biological body, but was bestowed upon me by God." BT. Here, we have two divine beings, one who controls enormous armed forces and another who is a 94 year old individual. It should be no contest. But the one with the armed forces is terrified. Strange. 

Motor is stalling.

"Emmanuel Macron's grand plans are now stuck in a cul-de-sac of chaotic failure after Le Pen allied with other parties...to topple Barnier. France now has no fully empowered government - and no obvious way to form a stable one for months," and so, "Investors have driven up risk premiums on French assets over peers to levels not seen in a decade and sent stocks plunging." "German industrial production fell in October." ET. Determined to hang on to his lame duck status till his term ends in 2027 (ABC), "A gravely weakened President Emmanuel Macron hopes to win a new lease of political life from Saturday's (07 Dec) ceremonial reopening of Notre Dame." BBC. "The EU as a whole is affected," as "France, together with Germany, is traditionally seen as the EU's 'motor' in terms of ideological and political horsepower." "Germany will hold a snap general election in February as its bickering coalition government recently collapsed." BBC. In addition, "Europe's struggling industries are bracing for a new gas price shock over the coming winter months, as colder weather depletes stocks, competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas intensifies, and the prospect of reduced Russian supplies looms." "Dozens of factories in Europe closed and nearly a million manufacturing jobs were lost over the last four years, Bernstein data showed." Reuters. To complicate matters, "United States President Joe Biden is doing his utmost to start new conflicts before vacating the White House on January 20. DH. Last month, Biden "authorized the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for use against Russian targets." TOI. Then he supplied Ukraine with anti-personnel land mines (BBC), which were banned by the Ottawa Treaty in 1997 (wikipedia). The US, Russia, China and India have not ratified the treaty. "In response to mounting concerns of a conflict with Russia, Sweden is distributing over five million leaflets to its citizens, offering them clear-cut instructions on how to get ready for the prospect of war and how to store up food and water." HT. While Russia's gas supplies are falling, "China's trade restrictions on strategic minerals are starting to hit Western companies where it hurts." "The price of antimony, scarce in nature but essential for military equipment such as ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons and night vision goggles, rallied by nearly 230% this year to about $39000 per metric ton." Reuters. In his desperation for re-election, Biden has deployed land mines against his own nation as, "America's national debt has reached a record high of $36 trillion, with a $2 trillion increase this year alone." ET. In addition, "The world's debt stock surged by over $12 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024 to a fresh record of nearly $323 trillion," while "Large government budget deficits suggest that government debt could rise by a third by 2028 to approach $130 trillion." Reuters. So, will the world drag the US down, or will the US drag down the world? The global economic motor is stalling. Hope it doesn't stop.    

The mighty Soros.

"The construction of a temple in Assam's Sribhumi District was temporarily halted after an intervention of the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) on Thursday (05 December)." "On Thursday afternoon, a team of BGB from Bangladesh's Sylhet division reportedly crossed the riverine border point and came to the Indian side where the construction was happening." HT. How could Bangladeshi soldiers in uniform invade Indian territory with complete impunity without any military response from our forces? "Recently, in an election rally in Uttarakhand, PM Narendra Modi had said, "Today, there is a strong Modi government in India, that is why terrorists are killed by entering their homes'." BBC. And yet, soldiers from a poor, backward country can walk into Assam and lay down the law without fear of retaliation! "Gone are the days when India just frothed and fumed at a terrorist attack instigated by Pakistan," but now, "Pakistan fears military retaliation from India in case of a terror attack," and "China too never expected India to display military and diplomatic muscle synchronized with the economic rise of its adversary." HT. "The government on Friday (06 Dec) sought action against JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar saying his latest threat exposed the duplicity of Pakistan as Islamabad had been claiming he was not in Pakistan." Azhar reportedly targeted India in his speech. TOI. "Terror attacks have killed 44 people, including 18 security personnel, in Balakot this year with the strikes spreading from the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch to six other areas in the troubled region, security officials said." ET. Terrorists from Pakistan ambushed an Army vehicle killing two soldiers and two Army porters on 24 October, an Army spokesman said." The Hindu. Did we not eliminate all Pakistani terrorists in an air strike on Balakot on 26 February 2019 (wikipedia) teaching Pakistan a lesson? Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli "arrived in China on Monday (02 Dec) for a four-day visit, his first to a foreign country since his July swearing-in and breaking tradition by not making New Delhi, with which Kathmandu has centuries old ties, his initial port of call." Reuters. "A survey reveals that Canadians having a favorable view of India has dropped to 26% from 56% some 20 months ago." India Today. Mr Modi's "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has accused the State Department and 'deep state' elements in the US of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi." Reuters. "Investigative journalists" may expose the truth. How dare they? However, according to Bhakts, in their alternate reality created through social media, (DH), one man is orchestrating all the attacks on India and Mr Modi. His name is George Soros who is a 94 year-old billionaire who supports progressive and liberal causes with donations through his Open Society Foundations. wikipedia. On 06 December, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey alleged in the Lok Sabha that Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi is conspiring with Soros. HT. One man with so much power. Ernst Stavro Blofeld would be jealous. We are so weak.

Demand matters, not just supplies.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) yesterday kept the policy rate unchanged for the 11th consecutive time at 6.5%, cut the economic growth forecast to 6.6% for 2024-25 from the earlier 7.2%, and reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4% which is expected to release nearly Rs 1.6 trillion for banks and help moderate lending rates." "The RBI also raised the inflation projection for FY25 to 4.8% from 4.5%." TOI. "At its core the cash reserve ratio represents a part of a bank's total deposits held back in reserve." "Banks cannot use these reserves to invest or lend to customers, marking it as an essential safeguard." kotak.com. CRR protects the bank from default in case of a sudden demand from customers and also helps the RBI to indirectly control the lending rate by controlling the amount of cash. Banks also have to maintain a Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) which is "the minimum percentage of deposits that the commercial bank maintains through gold, cash and other securities." The present rate of SLR is 18%. cleartax. According to the National Statistics Office, growth of the real GDP in the second quarter of financial year 2024-25 is estimated at 5.4%. pib.gov.in. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that "high frequency indicators available so far suggest that the slowdown in domestic economic activity bottomed out in the second quarter of this year and it has since recovered aided by strong festive demand and pickup in rural activities." The slowdown mainly due to "deceleration in industrial growth from 7.4% in the first quarter to 2.1% in the second quarter." ET. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 6.21% in October while food price inflation (CFPI) was at 10.87%. mospi.gov.in. Das said that "The RBI has revised its retail inflation forecast for FY25 to 4.8%, up from the earlier projection of 4.5%," because food prices will start coming down in the fourth quarter. Vegetable prices will ease but edible oil prices could remain high. ET. "Demand for goods is likely to remain subdued next year, as high inflation hurts real incomes, eroding consumer confidence, market research firm Kantar said in its outlook for 2025." "The urban middle class, once the cornerstone of the consumer goods market, has become the smallest cohort. Real incomes have been under pressure, leading to stagnating consumer confidence." Mint. Since food prices are volatile and depend on supplies, the Economic Survey 2024 suggested that the RBI should ignore food prices when setting its policy rate. The Hindu. Core CPI is the price of goods and services excluding food and fuel. Investopedia. In the 154 months since 2014, core CPI inflation was above 5% in 57% of the months, while food inflation was above 5% in 62% of the months and below 4% in 29% of the months. "Hence, targeting core inflation could result in similar responses from the MPC." Since consumption habits of Indians have changed, the basket of articles constituting household consumption should be updated, wrote Madan Sabnavis. Perhaps, all the people blaming supplies for causing inflation are forgetting that India's population is projected to peak at 1.701 billion by 2062 (BS), which means demand rising by another 300 million. Perhaps, they just want to please the government. After all, "In the long run we are all dead." (John Maynard Keynes). Cynical. Or toadies.  

The most abused word.

In reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha, the Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh stated, "The Government of India believes that asylum seekers, while applying for asylum to a foreign government, denigrate the system in India to obtain personal gains despite the fact that India, being a democratic country, provides avenues for everyone to redress their grievances legally." mea.gov.in. Really? "Over the past decade, Indian prisons increasingly had more undertrial prisoners, with their share increasing from 66% of prisoners in 2012 to 76% in 2022, a revealed in the latest Prison Statistics India report released by the National Crimes Record Bureau." "A primary contributing factor to this trend is the indiscriminate arrests carried out by the police," so that "Individuals belonging to marginalized communities are disproportionately impacted" and "difficulties in meeting bail conditions contribute to the heightened likelihood of underprivileged individuals spending time in prisons without being convicted." IndiaSpend. Cases take years to resolve as judges grant repeated adjournments to lawyers who charge fees per appearance (Lloyd Law College) and therefore profit from indefinite prolongation. Nearly 35 million criminal cases and 11 million civil cases are languishing in courts for over one year, 9% of them for over 10 years, 16% for 5-10 years, 13% for 3-5 years and 22% for 1-3 years. njdg.ecourts.gov.in. Last month, "The Supreme Court...reiterated its concern on keeping an accused under custody for a long period without commencement of trial," with Justice Ujjal Bhuyan commenting that "the conviction rate of ED is very poor." ET. ED stands for the dreaded Enforcement Directorate which can imprison people and attach bank accounts and properties (BS) without any evidence, as Justice Bhuyan noted. The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) allows authorities to lock up anyone for any length of time without bail just by accusing the person of terrorism without having to provide any evidence. wikipedia. In 2022, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs, 24,134 people were accused under the UAPA of which only 212 were  convicted. 3047 had been in prison since 2016, 4098 since 2017, 4862 since 2018, 5645 since 2019 and 6482 since 2020. The Wire.  "We Indians are happy with whatever life presents us because we have no one else except Pakistan and Bangladesh to compare with," wrote Sanjiv Krishnan Sood. After his recent travel in Uzbekistan, Sood found that "The country which is ranked 67th or so in the world in terms of Gross Domestic Product, leads the world's fifth largest economy (India) by far in infrastructure and functional systems." The Wire. "In interesting turn of events, search engine Google has seen a huge spike in web searches in India regarding 'legal immigration', 'H1B visa' and 'US birth citizenship', following Donald Trump's mega victory in the United States (US) Presidential elections." News18. In the last few days, protests by people in South Korea forced President Yoon Suk Yeol to withdraw the declaration of martial law and now the police are investigating the president himself for "insurrection". BBC. This can never happen in India because we have 28 states (Know India), each with a different government, language and culture. The greed for power ensures that there is no shortage of collaborators and so there can never be a united uprising against the government which can do anything just by having a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Democracy is thus the most abused word in India. It doesn't need any evidence. Like UAPA.

Treat the cause.

There is speculation over whether RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will receive another extension to his tenure. TOI. That is because, "India's real GDP growth stood at a 7-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2FY25, well below India's potential GDP growth of 7-7.5%." BS. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Commerce Goyal Piyush Goyal have both called for lower borrowing costs in recent months." "The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday, October 9, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting, with a majority vote of 5-1." BS. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in October was 6.21% because Food Price Inflation was at 10.87%. mospi.gov.in. Since the price of food depends on supplies, and a higher cost of borrowing will have no effect on that, ministers are convinced that India's economy will zoom into space if only the RBI slashes its policy rate. "Weak factory production and consumer demand dinged the RBI's 7% headline estimate. Manufacturing crawled in at 2.2%," and "Earnings at top companies disappointed too." "A national election in April and May caused New Delhi to hit the brakes on infrastructure spending, a heavy lifter of growth in recent years. Some of the country's 28 states have been cutting back capital expenditure to offer election-winning cash handouts." Reuters. "What is important to focus on is the significant slowdown in urban consumption," while "there has been almost no growth in organized sector jobs." India had 44.79 million workers in the organized sector in FY13, which rose to 45.72 million in FY23, "a compounded growth rate of an abysmal 0.2%." While salaries of the few at the top have soared, wage growth of workers has been tepid, wrote Sonal Sachdev. "The HSBC final India manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 last month from 57.5 in October." ET. China's economy grew at over 10% for several years. "Why does India seem incapable of even a sustained 8%?" Because, "To win elections, governments pamper powerful lobbies...and shower freebies on farmers, large industries, SMEs, various castes, religious groups, women, children and pensioners." "But this eats into funds that could accelerate investment and, hence, GDP growth," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "A detailed count of welfare/redistribution expenditure of the Union government informs that the government budgeted to spend Rs 10.77 trillion, in 2024-25," which "works out to approximately Rs 7,700 per person for India's 1.4 billion population." "Together, the Union and state governments will be spending close to Rs 26,000 per person on welfare/redistribution," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Such enormous stimulus should have increased consumption but it hasn't. Because inflation is uncontrolled and wages are too low. It's the government's responsibility, but they can't provide the solution because they have created the problem. So blame the RBI. Pathetic.     

A pious doctor.

"Us President-elect Donald Trump said...there would be 'hell to pay' in the Middle East if hostages held in the Gaza strip were not released prior to his Jan 20 inauguration." "Around half of the 101 foreign and Israeli hostages are believed to be alive." "Hamas has called for an end to the war and total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as part of any deal to release remaining hostages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the war will go on until Hamas is eradicated and poses no more threat to Israel." Reuters. It is not clear if Netanyahu is following the controversial Hannibal Directive which authorises the prevention of taking hostages even at the cost of harming Israelis. wikipedia. He has certainly put himself at risk because the judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued ridiculous and highly biased arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and only one Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, who is dead anyway. BBC. The label 'Kangaroo Court' (wikipedia) would be too respectable for this bunch of shysters. Why? "The Aljamal family was widely respected in Gaza's Nuselrat camp. They were known as pious and prominent members of the community." How pious? "When Israeli forces stormed the Aljamals' building on June 8 they found Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov and Shloml Ziv, hostages who had been captured from the Nova music festival on October 7, cowering in a darkened room." "Dr Aljamal, 74, was a general practitioner and also led the call to prayer at the local mosque." CNN. A physician indulging in torture, a pious man whose god blesses his butchery. There are 18 full time judges at the ICC (wikipedia), no doubt with enormous salaries and luxurious perks. Many of these judges are from countries where denial of the Holocaust is a crime (wikipedia). Would they have issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu for killing Josef Mengele who also had a medical degree (wikipedia)? Hamas is using ordinary Palestinians as human shields and cannon fodder (wikipedia) without their knowledge or consent. Meanwhile, "A ceasefire deal to end 13 months of conflict between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has taken effect." Both sides have 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon allowing the Lebanese army to take over. BBC. The Hezbollah has been devastated. "Many of its leaders have been killed, including long-time Chief Hassan Nasrallah, while its infrastructure has been extensively damaged." "The group has been severely weakened, some would say humiliated, but it has not been destroyed." BBC. Without Hezbollah support, and with Trump's help, Israel may be able to take out most of the Hamas leadership. Will it be wiped out? No chance of that? Despite concerted efforts, have the Western countries been able to wipe out the Mafia, drug suppliers or, more recently, people smugglers? Crime is highly profitable and an irresistible magnet for all kinds of psychos, lowlife and losers. They will return. Till then Israel may enjoy some peace. We hope so. 

Investment for voters, manufacturing for consumers.

"India's economy expanded at a lower-than-expected 5.4% in the three months ended September, with sluggish growth in manufacturing and private consumption, a reflection of weak demand because of high borrowing costs, inflation and weak real wages growth." "The headline GDP growth number is 1.3 percentage points lower than the June quarter print and the lowest in seven quarters." HT.  "Indian wages contracted last quarter for the first time since the pandemic, curbing the economy's breakneck speed as consumers cut spending and corporate profits slumped, Bloomberg reported." "Consumers are now cutting back on everything from soaps to cars." ET. "India's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 6.7% in the second half (H2) of the fiscal year, bringing the full-year 2024-25 GDP growth to 6.4%, according to a report by JP Morgan." ET. "The second quarter GDP growth slump should not really have come as a shock, because the underlying consumption trends have been flashing red for a while now." "What is important to focus on is the significant slowdown in urban consumption, even as some green shoots of rural consumption revival have been noted." This is not surprising because "there has been almost no growth in organized sector jobs. India had 44.79 million people registered in the organized sector in FY13, which rose barely to 45.72 million in FY23." "In fact, in FY16, the organised jobs tally was 48.26 million." CNBC. If jobs growth is stagnant and real wages are declining, which are reflected in weaker demand, there is no need to increase manufacturing output. "The HSBC final India manufacturing, Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 last month from 57.5 in October." "The output and new orders sub-indexes fell to their lowest and second lowest this year." "An uptick in demand from abroad was noticed for Indian-made goods. International demand rose at the fastest pace since July." Reuters. The share of manufacturing in India's economy has averaged about 17.7% since 2010. In 2014, it was 17.3%. "As the economy expanded over the years, the share of agriculture declined while that of services rose. The share of manufacturing has never reached even 20%," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare. "A recent World Bank report pointed out that India's share of global exports of apparel, leather, textiles and footwear (ALTF) rose from 0.9% in 2002  to 4.5% in 2013, only to fall to 3.5%. Even as China's dominance in the sector started to slow down by 2015,..the benefits went to Bangladesh and Vietnam rather than India." The reason is that India lacks large factories with more than 300 workers which increase productivity and bring down costs. "A chief executive of a large firm...admitted that the company would be more competitive internationally if its plant sizes were greater, but it deliberately chose not to grow because of the need to spread risks - legal and political - across multiple firms." Mint. In India, "From the politician's point of view, the choice of subsidy recipient should balance political and commercial factors." "A policy that doesn't win votes is generally dead on arrival." "When left to themselves, for example, foreign investors usually drift toward India's developed southern states. Yet newer investments in the semiconductor sector - made possible by the billions of dollars that the government has set aside - seem to be going to regions more closely associated with Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party," wrote Mihir Sharma. A shackled economy cannot grow. Remove them.

Gujaratis have the wealth.

 "The central government...said that the Indians seeking asylum abroad were 'denigrating' the nation to obtain 'personal gains'." "This came after data from the US Department of Homeland Security showed an 855% rise in Indians seeking asylum in the US in the past three years. According to data, asylum applications increased from 4,330 in the 2021 US financial year to 41,330 in FY 2023. Indian officials reported that nearly half of these applicants are from Gujarat." Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. wikipedia. And, "Gujarat is where all the investments meant for other states are redirected. Gujarat is where the two most powerful people in the country come from. Gujarat is also where India's two richest people come from. It's where the number of Gujarati businessmen who made millions during the life of this government keeps increasing." And yet, "10 Indians try to enter the United States illegally every single hour. And that 50% of them are from Gujarat." "If Gujarat is booming - and we keep being told that it is - and if this is the golden age of Gujarati millionaires, why are so many Gujaratis trying to sneak into America?" asked Vir Sanghvi. It would be supreme irony if the increasing wealth of Gujaratis due to discrimination against other Indians by this prejudiced government is enabling them to pay the vast sums demanded by people smugglers. The cheaper route costs up to $10,000, from West Africa to Nicaragua and then on foot to the US. "The second route,..offers charter flights to Central America and overland transfers to the US border for between $72,000 and $96,000 per person, with full payment often due after arrival in the US." TOI. We don't know if they thank Mr Modi for being able to afford such enormous sums of money. "According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), 1.75 million Indians voluntarily surrendered their passports between 2011 and June 2023. From Antigua & Barbuda, Iceland, and the Vatican to the US, UK, France and Germany, Indians have given up citizenship to immigrate to about 135 countries worldwide." Highest was 2,25,620 in 2022. FE. Anywhere is better, far away from India. Why? A few days back, "three men died when their car veered off an unfinished bridge and fell on to a riverbed in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh." "There were no barricades or sign boards indicating that the bridge was unfinished." BBC. However, Delhi Police is renowned for putting barricades on busy roads, creating long traffic jams and creating immense inconvenience to people for no justifiable reason (TIE). Not just cars, people can't walk either. "Even in India's biggest cities, proper footpaths are few and far between and they are often overrun by hawkers and shops, parked vehicles and even cattle." "Even footpaths that exist are often not built to standard or properly maintained." BBC. A model waste-to-energy plant in Okhla, Delhi "is exposing one million people to highly toxic emissions," and "workers at the plant were tipped off about checks by pollution boards, giving them time to take corrective measures," New York Times reported. TOI. Escape before being killed by toxic gas, being crushed in traffic or falling off an unfinished bridge. If you can afford it. Gujaratis can. Thank you, sir.       

Growth is inversely related to greed.

"India's economic growth moderated to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY25, down from 8.1% in the same period last year and 6.7% in the previous quarter." "Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a key GDP driver, grew by 6.0% in Q2, up from 2.6% in the same period last year." "The RBI has maintained its GDP growth projection for FY25 at 7.2%." ET. The government must have had an inkling. First, "Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called upon RBI to cut rates, arguing that targeting food price inflation through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'." TOI. In quick succession, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...called for bank interest rates to be 'far more affordable', arguing that several people found the cost of borrowing very stressful." TOI. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. Since RBI's repo rate sets the basis of bank lending rates and since the RBI is governed by the Finance Ministry, it seems that Ms Sitharaman is ordering the RBI to cut interest rates. Business leaders, politicians and civil servants in India are convinced that low cost of borrowing will result in higher investment, creating more jobs and a higher consumption-led economic growth. Because bureaucrats get inflation-proof salaries with Dearness (Inflation) Allowance of 53% of basic salary (ET) and politicians can enjoy a full non-veg buffet lunch for just Rs 700, vegetarian buffet lunch for Rs 500 (scribd.com), less than half the price at any ordinary restaurant in Delhi, they do not understand that people do not borrow from banks for essentials. They cut spending on non-essential purchases, which reduces demand, and is a disincentive on new investment. "India's city dwellers are cutting on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's economic growth." msn. "Inflation-adjusted wages for listed non-financial companies shrank by 0.5% in the July-September quarter, according to Elara Securities, marking a grim milestone for real urban incomes. Simultaneously, inflation has eaten into disposable income, forcing families to cut back on daily essentials and big-ticket purchases like cars." BT. "Bank loans secured by gold jewelry have seen a dramatic 50.4% increase in the first seven months of this fiscal year." ET. The Inflation Expectation Survey of Households by the RBI "shows only a small minority (5% of households) expect a decline in inflation rate, and 74.4% expect prices to rise at a rate similar or higher than now," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Calls for ignoring the cost of food is specious because the government directly increases the cost of food. GST on domestic cooking gas is 5% per cylinder of gas. cleartax. Taxes on diesel, used by trucks, add up to 50% of the retail price. cleartax. And, trucks have to pay high toll charges to travel on highways. tis.nhai.gov.in. The government can bring down the cost of food dramatically by reducing all these taxes on transport and cooking of food. They won't. Greed and growth cannot go together. Inversely related.  

Markets are believers.

"Adani Group companies saw their share prices gain up to 14% for the third day in a row. Adani Green Energy Ltd share price led the gains rising up to 14% in morning trades." Mint. "Like most other Adani Group stocks, Adani Total Gas Ltd shares also continued their strong upmove," as its price hit a high of Rs 862.15, a rise of 48.72% in three trading sessions. BT. "Mr Gautam Adani, Mr Sagar Adani and Mr Vneet Jaain have not been charged with any violation of the FCPA in the counts set forth in the indictment of the US DOJ or civil complaint of the US SEC," the Adani Group said in a statement. FCPA refers to the US Foreign Corruption Practices Act. "These directors have been charged on three counts in the criminal indictment, namely (i) alleged securities fraud conspiracy, (ii) alleged wire fraud conspiracy and (iii) alleged securities fraud," according to a stock exchange filing by the Adani Group. TOI. "Adani is what in geopolitics is called a 'national champion'." He is India's answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). "During Korea's dizzy economic rise from 1960 onwards, a few business groups called the 'chaebol' - including Hyundai, Daewoo, and Samsung - emerged as champions, getting favors and subsidies aplenty while giving kickbacks to politicians. This did not ruin their image," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. Notably, Korea's meteoric economic growth and the rise of chaebols, known as the Miracle on the Han River, occurred during the dictatorship of Park Chung Hee from 1962 until his assassination in 1979. wikipedia. Whereas, "India is a mother of democracy; India is also a model of diversity," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his speech on Independence Day in 2023. DH. Both Mr Modi and Adani are from Gujarat. In a democracy the law should apply equally to everybody. Indian states had entered into power supply agreements (PSAs) with the Solar Energy Corporation of India (Seci), a Navratna Government of India Enterprise (seci.co.in) but wanted to buy cheaper power from other sources. "The bottom line for both Azure and Adani Green was that they each stood to lose billion of dollars of potential revenue unless state governments and their related Discoms (distribution companies) entered into PSAs with Seci," US Securities and Exchange Commission said. Seems logical. "How come US authorities found wrongdoing when none was spotted by our agencies? Amidst all this is the deafening silence of Indian business leaders. This is no trivial matter and impacts the reputation of the entire business community," wrote Amol Agrawal. According to Transparency International, India's score on the Corruption Perception Index improved by three points from 2013 to 2023. However, instead of punishing corruption "Indian businesses and government may instead double down on attempts to be more financially self-sufficient when funding strategic assets like energy." Reuters. The stock markets show that Adani is safe. Are we?     

Worth killing for.

"The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Undergraduate), or NEET-UG is the gateway to studying medicine in the country." "This year an astounding 2.4 million students competed for just 110,000 available seats in the NEET exam, underscoring the intense pressure and fierce competition faced by aspiring candidates." This year, "an unprecedented 67 students had achieved the perfect score of 720 marks," leading to "allegations of paper leaks, cheating and systemic corruption." BBC. "Investigations by various news sources revealed over 70 cases of exam leaks, including recruitment and board exams, over the past seven years across 15 states. These leaks disrupted the schedules of 17 million applicants." India Today. In Madhya Pradesh, "The Vyapam scam, which has irregularities in three categories - impersonation, manipulation and engine-bogie (nexus between government employees and middlemen), came to light in 2013." What made this scam extremely sinister was the systematic elimination of witnesses. "On record, there are more than 40 people associated with the scam who have died since it broke in 2013." TNIE. The largest serial killing in the history of the world. No higher education means poorly paid jobs. Hence, "As of 2022, an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US." Why and how have they reached the US? "For one, the migrants are not from the lowest economic strata. But they cannot secure tourist or student visas to the US, often due to lower education of English proficiency." So they pay up to $100,000 to people smugglers. BBC. Apparently, 75% of Indians want to move abroad. Higher salaries, better job opportunities and freedom are the main reasons, wrote Nupur Dave. One way is to go as students and then try to convert the student visa into a work visa which would give the right to stay in the country. "Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has uncovered over 10,000 fraudulent student acceptance letters this year," and "According to media reports, approximately 80% of these fake letters were linked to students from Gujarat and Punjab." BS. "During the 2023-24 academic year, over 331,602 Indian students pursued higher education at US institutions," thus becoming "the leading source of international students in the United States." ET. "For many of this government's critics, Gujarat has come to represent everything they abhor about the BJP." "Gujarat is where all the investments meant for other states are redirected." And yet of the 10 Indians who try to enter the US illegally every single hour 50% are Gujaratis, wrote Vir Sanghvi. "Which area has [India] invented? Please give me an example," asked Infosys founder Narayan Murthy. MC. If our exam system is so corrupt it's a wonder that foreign universities even accept Indian students. Illegal immigrants and illegal education. India may be number one.  

Learn from Henry Ford.

"Balancing fiscal prudence with the need to provide a growth impetus has been a hallmark of our government over past Union budgets." "With a keen eye on resilience..." "The budget for 2024-25 did a fine job..." "Particularly praiseworthy is the government's proposal..." wrote Chandrajeet Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Obsequious, terrified of being seen to criticize, cringe-making and grovelling, even Aurangzeb probably did not inspire such terror. What sacrifice is Mr Banerjee requesting from politicians and civil servants? He is begging for tax simplification and widening the tax base. In September 2021, corporate tax rate was reduced to 22%, which, with cess and surcharge, meant an effective corporate tax rate of 25.17%. The tax rate for new investment in manufacturing was reduced to 15%, the effective rate being 17.01%. pib.gov.in. In August 2023, "The government lost a little over Rs 1 trillion in 2020-21 on account of a cut in corporate taxes, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said." ET. "Indian companies have to pay a lower statutory tax rate than companies in some other emerging economies such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico." Mint. Corporate tax rates are now so friendly that, "Income tax from individuals now comprises more than 30% of the government's total tax receipts, significantly exceeding the contribution of taxes paid by companies, new data from the Income Tax Department shows." The Print. If his members are paying such low taxes what is Mr Banerjee's gripe? It is that "of the 75.5 million individuals who filed income tax returns for assessment year 2023-24, 63% paid zero tax and just 5% of filers paid 73.5% of the overall tax payable." He wants to widen the tax base which means he wants his own tax to reduce. Those at the top are paying more tax because CEOs of companies have awarded themselves massive increases in salaries so that CEOs now earn up to 1000 times the average salary of workers. TOI. While the top "30 million households (or 120 million people) has a per capita income of $15,000 per person (around Rs 1.23 million) and forms the country's consuming class," "As per the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), real wages of workers have increased only 0.7% per year between 2017-18 and 2022-23," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. In 1912, Henry Ford doubled the wages of his workers from $2.5 to $5 per day, reduced working hours from 9 to 8 hours and increased the number of shifts from two to three. The huge increase in productivity brought down costs so much that "By 1919,  a Model T car that sold for $800 in in 1910 cost only $350," "and for the first time, the average Ford employee could also be a customer." Inc. What business in India would ever dream of reducing costs and paying workers higher wages? US Federal Prosecutors have issued arrest warrants and the US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued summons for Mr Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar. BS. "There's corruption in private sector meant to enrich businessmen and executives at the expense of their own companies and shareholders." "Business corruption and political corruption form a symbiosis that has fueled growth for some time," wrote TK Arun. No wonder Mr Banerjee is so polite. Brothers in arms (dictionary), as it were.     

Primary would have refined the message.

Democrats were certain of victory when on 20 August, "US Vice President Kamala Harris' election effort has raised around $500 million since she became the Democratic presidential candidate," having "raised $200 million in the first week of her campaign while she quickly wrapped up support to become the party's nominee." Reuters. In total, "Vice President Kamala Harris spent a remarkable $1.5 billion in her hyper-compressed 15-week presidential campaign." NYT. Every 'expert' has an opinion on Donald Trump's victory. "The natural election advantages once enjoyed by incumbents are gone. A century of expanding govt has twisted capitalism into a system of state support for everyone, but it has lavished far greater benefits on the rich and powerful than the average American," so that "Nine in 10 Americans born in the 1940s grew up to earn more than their parents; today fewer than one in four say they expect to achieve the same progress," wrote Ruchir Sharma. President Joe Biden is mainly responsible by blocking the primary process so that Harris didn't have to defend and explain her message to the voters. "Democratic strategists, pundits and lawmakers have publicly blamed the loss on Biden's refusal to exit the race until late July, even as his unpopularity in polls surged and an increasing number of Americans said he was too old to serve another term." Forbes. "A Democratic Party fit for purpose would have won in a landslide. The question isn't why Democrats lost with 48% of the popular vote rather than winning, as they hoped, with a sliver over 50%; it's why they didn't completely crush the other side." "Unfortunately, except that it despises Trump and loves to spend money, it doesn't seem sure. Its most energetic activists and many of its leading thinkers, allies and enablers have embraced a radical form of postmodern identity politics." Bloomberg. That is repulsive to most people. A vindictive and bitter Biden is trying to engineer a scorched earth policy (wikipedia) in Ukraine to make it difficult for Trump to bring peace. "US President-elect Donald Trump has said his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as he lamented the killing of people in the conflict." ET. Just two months before Trump is sworn in, Biden permitted the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems against Russia, clearly designed to increase casualties and block Trump's efforts at peace. TOI. Not content with that, "The Biden administration will provide Ukraine with controversial anti-personnel mines in its war against Russia, a US official confirmed." CBS. Anti-personnel mines were banned in the "1997 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production, and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction" in Ottawa. United Nations. This makes Biden a war criminal. However, "Biden's dangerous, last-minute ratcheting up of US-Russia tensions may serve as an accidental catalyst for the advent of 'President Trump the peacemaker'," wrote Patrick Basham. We pray for Trump's success. Stop the suffering of innocent people. And children.

Similar neighbors.

"In a recent YouGov-Mint Millennial Survey, over 88% of Indians described themselves as 'middle-class'." Kishore Biyani developed a framework which divides Indian consumers into 3 tiers - "The first tier, comprising around 30 million households (or 120 million people), has a per capita income of $15,000 per person (around Rs 1.23 million) and forms the country's consuming class." "Below them are the 'aspirant class' - 330 million with per capita income of $3,000 (around Rs 250,000)," wrote Abhisek Mukherjee. With the population of India at 1,456 million (worldometer), we are left with around 1,115 million people too poor to buy anything except essentials. Tier 1 is spending on foreign holidays, ride hailing services and "'artisanal' D2C brands", while "lingering effects of inflation and taxation is making India 2 and 3 cut down on non-essential spending and switch to local brands." "India's city dwellers are cutting spending on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's economic growth." "Anecdotal evidence suggests retail sales rose close to 15% year-on-year during the festive 2024 season...about half of last year's pace." ET. "The US based Pew Research Center projected the pre-Covid strength of the Indian middle class - defined as those earning between USD10-USD 20 a day or Rs 25,000-Rs 50,000 a month - at about 99 million," and "one-third of this segment fell out of the 'middle class' during the Covid freeze, effectively reducing it to about 66 million." Companies raised prices after Covid, relying on premiumization, but are now seeing falling sales. TNIE. "Rising delinquencies in credit card receivables have made banks wary of ramping up subscriber additions in the festive season." ET. Over the last five years, "companies have reaped abnormally high profits on the back of premiumization triggered by exorbitant price increases," as "the acute K-shaped post pandemic recovery is  characterized by a thin upper arm and a thick lower arm; a feature officials have denied." ET.  "So, the economy is like it was during the Mughal empire - it produces bespoke goods at high markups for the rich, but is unable to service the mass market demand of the ordinary Indian due to low productivity. Rent seeking, not profit maximization, is, therefore, the goal of most entrepreneurs," wrote Rathin Roy. The situation must be dire because, "In a bid to boost demand, industry group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption' vouchers to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase in PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. This would be in addition to free food grains to 813 million people for five years starting on 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in) which should encourage discretionary spending of earnings among the poor. Although the US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) have apprehended 170,000 Indians trying to enter the US illegally, "As of 2022, an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US." BBC. Our neighbor is also in similar difficulties. "The world is flustered as beggars from Pakistan flood its cities." India Today. Illegal migrants or beggars - only a matter of degree. So similar. 

Disguised spending.

India has spent $14 trillion on investment since Independence. "A report by Motilal Oswal revealed that in the last 10 years, $8 trillion has been injected into the economy, to assist the country's rapid expansion and modernization." TOI. "Despite the fluctuations, majority 55% of the Indian economy continue to grow positively, a report by HSBC Global Research said." Though the GDP growth has been impressive, "the Indian economy appears to be settling into a more moderate phase. The report which analysed 100 indicators of growth added that while a majority, (it) represents a decline from 65% just a quarter ago." ET. "After selling equity for Rs 1138.58 billion through exchanges in October, FPIs (foreign institutional investors) have sold another Rs 418.72 billion of equity through exchanges in November so far," but FPIs bought equity in the primary market worth Rs 153.39 billion in November. TIE. The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election strengthened the US dollar. "Last week, the US dollar advanced to a one-year high against other major currencies. It has gained over 3% post US presidential election. The currency has been on a recovery path since the first week of October, in hopes that the US Central Bank will continue lowering interest rates." ET. However, "The greenback declined against major peers with the Aussie and euro leading gains, while Bitcoin fell below $97,000 before paring losses." Because "traders viewed Donald Trump's pick of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a measured choice." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been defending the Indian rupee frantically because a weaker rupee against the dollar will make imports more expensive and push up the rate of inflation. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined $17.76 billion, the sharpest weekly fall, to hit a four-month low of $657.8 billion for the week ended November 15," as the RBI sold dollars to defend the rupee. BS. In October, India's merchandise exports rose 17.25% to $39.2 billion while imports rose 3.9% to $66.34 billion. Trade deficit was $27.14 billion, less than $30.42 billion in October 2023. ET. "Following retail inflation spike in October, the RBI's state of the economy report warned that rising prices, if unchecked, would undermine prospects of the real economy while cautioning on the spillover effect of rising food prices on headline and said uptick in core inflation is a 'worry'." BS. "Cash handout schemes have, of late, become politicians', across central and state governments, preferred social welfare instrument to secure votes - of bribe voters." "A detailed count of welfare/redistribution expenditure of the Union government informs that the government budgeted to spend Rs 10.77 trillion in 2024-25 of the total Budget of Rs 48.21 trillion. It works out to approximately Rs 7,700 per person for India's 1.4 billion population." "Together, the Union and state governments will be spending close to Rs 26,000 per person on welfare/redistribution," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Fiscal stimulus of that magnitude would be inflationary. In the US, the consumer price index (CPI) for October rose 2.6% year-on-year, while core inflation rose by 3.3%. bls.gov. In India, the CPI inflation rate for October was 6.21%. mospi.gov. As the Indian rupee continues to buy less and less, it will depreciate against the dollar. The RBI will not dare to cut interest rates. Will there be a reckoning at some point? We wait to see.

Not another 'Quango' please.

"Bengaluru, India is setting standards in pharmaceuticals and like the US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA), we should aim to create Bharat Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for global standards and benchmarks, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stressed." ET. What use is an FDA if it takes instructions from politicians and has no fangs? Madam Minister may have forgotten how a restaurant owner in Tamil Nadu had to offer an abject apology to her for joking about the goods and services tax (GST) on food. All he said was, "Madam, a bun doesn't attract GST, but when cream is applied to make it a cream bun, it attracts 12% GST. Customers now say, 'You bring the bun and cream separately and I'll make the cream bun." "On 5 October 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that four cough medicines, made by the Haryana based manufacturer, Maiden Pharma, were suspected to have caused the deaths of 66 children in the West African nation, The Gambia," wrote Priyanka Pulla. Has anyone been prosecuted for the crime? In 2021, at the height of the Covid crisis, patients receiving remdesivir from a batch coded V100167 developed high fever. Some died. "It was manufactured by Gujarat-based firm Zydus Cadilla," wrote Pulla. Both Haryana and Gujarat have BJP governments. The US FDA relies on the Office of Criminal Investigations to investigate and prosecute any criminal action. wikipedia. India has the police, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) (wikipedia) or Crime Branch, Criminal Bureau of Investigation (CBI) (cbi.gov.in) and Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) (wikipedia), all controlled by politicians, and all used to repress citizens. Criminals are free. "In the three years leading up to March 2023, Indian authorities tested 43 million food samples. Turns out, one in four did not conform to domestic food safety laws. Of these, one in every six were either 'unsafe' or 'substandard'." "But what they did not do is alert the consumer," wrote Sayantan Bera & Suneera Tandon. Unsafe products were not withdrawn from the market probably because it would cause losses to the companies. Let children die of food poisoning. The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Madhabi Puri Buch brazenly refused to appear before the Parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) to answer allegations of conflict of interest in investigating charges of stock market manipulation by the Adani Group. BS. In 2017, a Boston-based consultancy firm, CDM Smith admitted paying bribes totaling $1.18 million to NHAI officials between 2011 and 2015 and paid a fine of over $40 million in the US. TOI. India reacted with a big shrug. "There's corruption in the private sector meant to enrich businessmen and executives at the expense of their own companies and shareholders. There's corruption by civil servants who occupy positions in which they can delay, withhold or expedite decisions businessmen await. And there's political corruption that prevents the exercise of state power to stamp out corruption of other kinds," wrote TK Arun. So, no Bharat FDA stuffed with cronies getting fat salaries and perks. Please don't waste our hard-earned taxes. On a 'Quango'.    

Bypassing currencies.

 In March 2023, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has granted approvals to foreign banks in 18 countries to open Vostro accounts to settle international trade in rupees." "India had proposed the rupee trade settlement mechanism as the domestic currency was under tremendous pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February 2022." BT. In 2024, "In what could be a "very game-changing" development for India's trade with the world, many economies big and small have expressed willingness to start trading in rupee with India, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on March 11." ET. And yet Mr Goyal said two days back that "India will be cautious in its opening up process till the time it is an emerging economy and it has to maintain a balance." ET. If India is to restrict trade, what will other countries buy with the rupee? It is obviously not working because, "India's foreign exchange (forex)  reserves declined $17.76 billion, the sharpest weekly fall, to hit a low of $657.8 billion for the week ended November 15." "The fall was attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and the central bank's dollar sales to limit volatility in the foreign exchange market." BS. "The Indian central bank, in a rare move, instructed some banks to cut their long positions on the dollar-pair on Friday (yesterday), seeking to reduce speculative bets on the local currency, which is at a record low, four bankers directly familiar with the development told Reuters." ET. If Indian banks are hedging against a weaker rupee, foreigners will naturally be suspicious. At the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested a system to bypass the dollar. "The system, which Russia calls 'BRICS Bridge', is intended to be built within a year and would let countries conduct cross border settlement using digital platforms run by their central banks." Mint. "But a BRICS basket currency was not a natural fit for any of its member countries' exporters. With no BRICS equivalent of the European Central Bank (ECB), which manages the euro, or of the European Parliament, to which the ECB answers, fundamental questions like who would manage it would have remained unanswered," wrote Prof Barr Eichengreen. Why not use cryptocurrency? Donald Trump has just been elected president of the US. "Campaigning at a July Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Trump promised a new council as part of a crypto-friendly administration." "The industry is pushing for executive orders guaranteeing crypto companies' access to banking services, an end to enforcement actions and other changes." Reuters. But if governments in emerging nations are able to bypass the dollar by using cryptocurrencies, will people be able to bypass government regulations and taxes? "The KYC (Know Your Customer) policy was introduced to eliminate illicit use of cryptocurrencies and decrease crypto transactions' anonymity." "However, decentralized exchanges are unlikely to adopt the KYC and it is impossible to make them comply with government regulations since they are not run or owned by a centralized company or small group of people." Prestmit. "The Reserve Bank of India started a pilot for the e-rupee, devised as a digital alternative to physical cash in December 2022." Reuters. If governments bypass the dollar and people bypass governments, there could be a total breakdown of social order. Better to stick to physical currencies. Brings discipline.