Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Supposed to be an economist.

"Investors are showing signs of diversifying away from US Treasuries as global debt levels hit a record of nearly $353 trillion by end-March, a report by the Institute of International Finance found." "Looking at key debt ratios, global debt stood at 305% of world economic output, broadly stable where it had been since 2023. However, debt ratios followed a similar pattern as debt levels - trending lower in mature markets and rising steadily in emerging economies." Reuters. On 23 August, "US national debt has topped 40 trillion." "America's debt burden is rising faster than estimates just a few years ago, exacerbated by persistent deficits and soaring interest payments." At a spot price of $4,600 a troy ounce, the US debt is "More than the total value of all gold ever mined." CNN. Regardless, Trump has been busy. On 1 February 2025, the US levied 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, except oil and energy, which were taxed at 10%. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs on US goods. wikipedia. Early this year, "Trump announced 'major combat operations' against Iran on Feb. 28, with massive joint US-Israeli strikes targeting military, government and infrastructure sites." Yesterday, the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers while Iran fired missiles towards US bases in Jordan. ABC. The price of crude oil has jumped, with the benchmark Brent crude selling at $99.06 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. In the last week of August 2026, "Canada's chief US trade negotiator is disputing claims made by Americans officials about why trade talks fell apart last week, namely that the Canadian side brought forward last minute-demands on autos and that US negotiators weren't interested in French language discoverability rules. CBC. Yesterday, "Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products from the US, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney bets that standing up to Trump will eventually help Ottawa's negotiating position with its biggest trading partner." The Japan Times. In retaliation, "The latest US measures will hit Canadian alcohol, dairy products, motorcycles and mopeds, while Canadian goods will also face restrictions in some major US government contracts." These measures are due to start on 29 September. TOI. In US dollars, from January to July 2026, Canada exported 233,665.4 million to the US and imported 205,475.7, for a trade surplus of 28,189.7 million in Canada's favor. Canada enjoyed a surplus of 48,302.3 million in 2025, 61,166.0 million in 2024 and 78,333.4 million in 2022. census.gov. In 2024, trade with the US constituted 62.22% of Canada's total trade, the Indo-Pacific was a distant second with 17.40% and Europe and Central Asia contributed 11.99%. wikipedia. The US has a GDP of $32.38 trillion, while Canada's GDP is $2.51 trillion. Worldometers. Mark Carney is the present prime minister of Canada and was the governor of the Bank of England (July 2013-March 2020) (Britannica) when Britain exited the European Union, known as Brexit (wikipedia). Britain with a GDP of $4.26 trillion chose to give up free trade with the European Union, with a combined GDP of $21.24 trillion, just across the English Channel (World Bank). Ten years on, Britain has probably lost 3% to 8% of economic growth due to Brexit, while "The most recent study by the NBER takes account of population growth and says the UK lost 6-8% of per capita output. BBC. Even with a ringside seat, Carney seems to have learnt nothing. He, like Iran, is probably calculating that the mid-term elections to the US Congress in November will bring a Democrat majority in both the House and the Senate, which will reverse Trump's policies. Even if that happens Trump will still have veto power till 2028. Cutting off one's nose to spite one's face  is silly. The economy could tank. And Carney is supposed to be an economist. Legacy of failure. 

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