Saturday, November 30, 2024
Growth is inversely related to greed.
"India's economic growth moderated to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY25, down from 8.1% in the same period last year and 6.7% in the previous quarter." "Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a key GDP driver, grew by 6.0% in Q2, up from 2.6% in the same period last year." "The RBI has maintained its GDP growth projection for FY25 at 7.2%." ET. The government must have had an inkling. First, "Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called upon RBI to cut rates, arguing that targeting food price inflation through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'." TOI. In quick succession, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...called for bank interest rates to be 'far more affordable', arguing that several people found the cost of borrowing very stressful." TOI. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. Since RBI's repo rate sets the basis of bank lending rates and since the RBI is governed by the Finance Ministry, it seems that Ms Sitharaman is ordering the RBI to cut interest rates. Business leaders, politicians and civil servants in India are convinced that low cost of borrowing will result in higher investment, creating more jobs and a higher consumption-led economic growth. Because bureaucrats get inflation-proof salaries with Dearness (Inflation) Allowance of 53% of basic salary (ET) and politicians can enjoy a full non-veg buffet lunch for just Rs 700, vegetarian buffet lunch for Rs 500 (scribd.com), less than half the price at any ordinary restaurant in Delhi, they do not understand that people do not borrow from banks for essentials. They cut spending on non-essential purchases, which reduces demand, and is a disincentive on new investment. "India's city dwellers are cutting on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's economic growth." msn. "Inflation-adjusted wages for listed non-financial companies shrank by 0.5% in the July-September quarter, according to Elara Securities, marking a grim milestone for real urban incomes. Simultaneously, inflation has eaten into disposable income, forcing families to cut back on daily essentials and big-ticket purchases like cars." BT. "Bank loans secured by gold jewelry have seen a dramatic 50.4% increase in the first seven months of this fiscal year." ET. The Inflation Expectation Survey of Households by the RBI "shows only a small minority (5% of households) expect a decline in inflation rate, and 74.4% expect prices to rise at a rate similar or higher than now," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Calls for ignoring the cost of food is specious because the government directly increases the cost of food. GST on domestic cooking gas is 5% per cylinder of gas. cleartax. Taxes on diesel, used by trucks, add up to 50% of the retail price. cleartax. And, trucks have to pay high toll charges to travel on highways. tis.nhai.gov.in. The government can bring down the cost of food dramatically by reducing all these taxes on transport and cooking of food. They won't. Greed and growth cannot go together. Inversely related.
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