Disguised spending.

India has spent $14 trillion on investment since Independence. "A report by Motilal Oswal revealed that in the last 10 years, $8 trillion has been injected into the economy, to assist the country's rapid expansion and modernization." TOI. "Despite the fluctuations, majority 55% of the Indian economy continue to grow positively, a report by HSBC Global Research said." Though the GDP growth has been impressive, "the Indian economy appears to be settling into a more moderate phase. The report which analysed 100 indicators of growth added that while a majority, (it) represents a decline from 65% just a quarter ago." ET. "After selling equity for Rs 1138.58 billion through exchanges in October, FPIs (foreign institutional investors) have sold another Rs 418.72 billion of equity through exchanges in November so far," but FPIs bought equity in the primary market worth Rs 153.39 billion in November. TIE. The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election strengthened the US dollar. "Last week, the US dollar advanced to a one-year high against other major currencies. It has gained over 3% post US presidential election. The currency has been on a recovery path since the first week of October, in hopes that the US Central Bank will continue lowering interest rates." ET. However, "The greenback declined against major peers with the Aussie and euro leading gains, while Bitcoin fell below $97,000 before paring losses." Because "traders viewed Donald Trump's pick of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a measured choice." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been defending the Indian rupee frantically because a weaker rupee against the dollar will make imports more expensive and push up the rate of inflation. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined $17.76 billion, the sharpest weekly fall, to hit a four-month low of $657.8 billion for the week ended November 15," as the RBI sold dollars to defend the rupee. BS. In October, India's merchandise exports rose 17.25% to $39.2 billion while imports rose 3.9% to $66.34 billion. Trade deficit was $27.14 billion, less than $30.42 billion in October 2023. ET. "Following retail inflation spike in October, the RBI's state of the economy report warned that rising prices, if unchecked, would undermine prospects of the real economy while cautioning on the spillover effect of rising food prices on headline and said uptick in core inflation is a 'worry'." BS. "Cash handout schemes have, of late, become politicians', across central and state governments, preferred social welfare instrument to secure votes - of bribe voters." "A detailed count of welfare/redistribution expenditure of the Union government informs that the government budgeted to spend Rs 10.77 trillion in 2024-25 of the total Budget of Rs 48.21 trillion. It works out to approximately Rs 7,700 per person for India's 1.4 billion population." "Together, the Union and state governments will be spending close to Rs 26,000 per person on welfare/redistribution," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Fiscal stimulus of that magnitude would be inflationary. In the US, the consumer price index (CPI) for October rose 2.6% year-on-year, while core inflation rose by 3.3%. bls.gov. In India, the CPI inflation rate for October was 6.21%. mospi.gov. As the Indian rupee continues to buy less and less, it will depreciate against the dollar. The RBI will not dare to cut interest rates. Will there be a reckoning at some point? We wait to see.