The flight of the Kingfisher.

The kingfisher has flown the coop. The Attorney General informed the Supreme Court yesterday that Vijay Mallya left the country on 2 March, still owing Rs 90 billion to a bunch of banks in India. Of course, he did. Same as India's best friend, Ottavio Quattrocchi left Delhi for Kuala Lumpur in July 1993 even though the pay-offs in the Bofors case came to light in 1987. Billions of rupees makes lots of friends. For us, ordinary folks the case is hilarious because none of it makes sense. For instance, no one seems to know where Mallya is? With his distinctive hairstyle Mallya is instantly recognisable. A man of his flamboyance is not going to fly anything less than first class, fussed over by flunkeys, which will be clearly visible on CCTV footage in the airport, so his destination should be obvious from the flight he boarded. If he flew by private jet, its flight plan will have been filed and a few phone calls should reveal where it landed. A non-bailable arrest warrant was issued for him in October 2012 so he should not have been roaming around. In 2014 he was granted bail on a criminal charge of tax evasion for a sum of Rs 100,000 in cash and Rs 100,000 bond, for a grand total of Rs 200,000. This for a man who had already defaulted on loans of over Rs 70 billion to various banks. Contrast this to Subroto Roy who will remain in prison unless he pays Rs 100 billion towards his bail. Note what Mallya said,"I have been most pained as being painted as an absconder - I have neither the intention nor any reason to abscond. I have been a non-resident for almost 28 years and the Reserve bank of India acknowledged this in writing." We understand. When he left India he was only going home to wherever he lives and so cannot be described as an absconder. What does non-resident mean? Does it mean that he still carries an Indian passport but spends over 180 days outside the country, or that he is a citizen of a foreign country. If everyone knew that he is a non-resident why did they not impound his passport? Mallya struck a deal with Diageo which agreed to pay him $75 million as severance package, $40 million immediately and $35 million in installments over 5 years, and drop all criminal charges against him. The stock exchange regulator, Sebi has suddenly woken up to Mallya's naughty behavior, the same Sebi which has been implacable in the Subroto Roy case. Some 3,000 employees are still claiming Rs 3 billion in unpaid salaries. No doubt they will be paid with taxpayer money just before some elections. The money could have been much better utilised to restructure the airlines so that it remained viable when over Rs 222 billion has been wasted on the bottomless pit of Air India. Under no circumstance should the government try to extradite Mallya back to India. We do not want a repeat of the Quattrocchi carousel where our fearless sleuths ran to all the fleshpots of the world, costing billions of rupees, only to drop all charges. Curious goings on, isn't it? Alice would have recognised it.

Is Europe going to surrender to Erdogan?

After fighting each other nonstop for thousands of years, ending with World War II, European countries established the European Union, which created a common market of 28 countries, with free movement of people, goods and services. No visa is required to travel within the Schengen area of 26 countries. The European Convention on Human Rights even abolished the death penalty for the most heinous crimes. The union has been so successful in promoting peaceful coexistence for its citizens that the European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. Could all this, built up over half a century, be about to fall apart because of the migrant crisis? Various countries are building fences to stop the flow of migrants and thousands are gathering in Greece because Macedonia will not allow them through. There has been talk of expelling Greece from the Schengen area for not doing enough to stop the flow of migrants, although what the Greek navy is supposed to do is not clear. Armed forces are trained to fight other armed forces. They may refuse orders to shoot at defenceless civilians with little babies, which will make them guilty of war crimes. Matters got so bitter that at one point Greece recalled its ambassador to Austria. The problem is not Greece, but Turkey, whose President, Erdogan is an absolute corrupt thug. A big scandal was exposed in 2013 involving Erdogan's party and possibly his son Bilal. Instead of cleaning up his administration Erdogan arrested judges and prosecutors and sacked police chiefs. Bilal Erdogan was being investigated for money laundering in Italy. There are allegations of Bilal being involved in smuggling oil from Syrian areas controlled by ISIS. Authorities forcibly took over a newspaper, called Zaman which was critical of the government. It has now become a propaganda sheet for the government. The migrant crisis is a heaven sent opportunity for Erdogan. He has the European Union in a corner, and is demanding his pound of flesh. Europe has agreed to pay 3 billion Euros to help Turkey look after refugees but Erdogan is demanding double that. Naturally, he decides how the money will be spent. He is demanding visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to Europe and speeding up of Turkey's membership application to join the EU. He knows that by the time that happens the European Union may have broken apart. The real beauty is his demand for Europe to accept one Syrian refugee from a camp in Turkey for every illegal one returned to the country. So, allow smugglers a free hand to take money from desperate refugees, allow locals to earn good money by selling inflatable rafts and fake life jackets to refugees, and recycle the migrants through the camps. And get paid 6 billion Euros for that. Genius. He cannot lose the next election.

If foreigners control our economy, how free are we?

Knowledge can be very scary. In an interview Christopher Wood, Managing Director at Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, an investment bank, said that foreign investors have sold $2.4 billion worth of Indian equities and $978 million worth of debt, and could sell more. The scary thing is that foreign investors have invested a total of $308 billion in India, $257 billion in stocks and $51 billion in debt. Our total foreign currency reserve is $350 billion so significant selling by foreigners could result in a plunge in the value of the rupee, which will put immediate upward pressure on the cost of imports, especially fuel, pushing up inflation. Of course, foreign investors will lose when they exchange rupees for dollars but we will lose even more. Indians are reluctant to invest in the stock market because it is controlled by foreign funds and a few big Indian traders, which leaves individual investors at a disadvantage. Only 1.5% of people in India invest in stocks, as opposed to 10% in China and 18% in the US. Just 2% of household savings in India are exposed to equities, as opposed to 45% in the US. Foreigners control 70% of the market. Analysts point out that the Sensex generated returns of 17% from 2004-2014 but do not give us a breakdown. They do not tell us how many stocks have stopped trading because the companies have gone bankrupt and have been replaced by other companies. Because of greed Initial Public Offerings are priced very high, so that 60% of IPOs are trading below offer price, which means that investors lost out. Mutual funds are supposed to take away risks of investing in stocks because fund managers know when to buy and sell but charges are higher than in other countries, and companies are run by fellows, called 'promoters', who may have pledged all their shares to banks to borrow money and therefore should be operating under strict supervision. Indians have a deep distrust of markets because they have been burnt by scams many times previously, so fund managers should discourage people from investing in equity funds when the market is at a high. Recent evidence shows that they do not warn retail investors from rushing foolishly into a market when corporate profits are falling, maybe because more investments mean more bonuses. Global economy looks weak and the IMF warned that it is 'highly vulnerable'. Some predict a recession in the US within one year. Without the stimulus of US consumer spending the world economy may also go into a recession. Many central banks have introduced negative interest rates in an effort to depress their currencies which puts more pressure on the rupee. Meanwhile, our share market is holding its breath for the RBI to reduce interest rate, without which real estate prices may crash and a lot of black money maybe wiped out. 68 years after independence we are still controlled by foreigners. Not something to be proud of, is it?

Do you have to be blind to be liberal?

Liberals all over the world suffer from delusions of infallibility in their own intellect and their absolute conviction in the rectitude of their arguments. While heaping abuse on Donald Trump, Republican front runner for presidential election in November, they are puzzled by his popularity with grassroots voters. One compares him to right wing politicians in Europe, including Putin, who are guilty of " nationalism and a hatred of minorities ". In the opinion of another, Trump's appeal is to " white working-class ethnics ". It is not clear how white people can change their genes to add some color to their skins and why being working-class makes them somehow inferior. A third says that Trump has gone exactly opposite to the Republican Party's decision to be " kinder, more inclusive GOP ", after being defeated twice by Barack Obama. Obama was elected because 96% of blacks voted for him, which is racist, and others who saw it as being politically correct, because he had converted to Christianity, which is religious bigotry. Liberals seem completely blind to the killing of thousands of innocent people by the use of drones, which makes him a war criminal, and creating conflict where there was peace, such as in Libya and Ukraine. The liberal hatred of Trump can be compared to the hatred of the BJP government in India and the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Not a day passes without vitriolic abuse of Hindus, which is seen as a proof of secularism. A former member of the now defunct Planning Commission starts off by commenting on the Economic Survey, released just before the budget, but somehow twists its contents to revel in Hindu bashing. He quotes Francis Fukuyama who praises the roles of Judaism, Christianity and Islam in nation-building but doubts that Hinduism can play a unifying role in strengthening the nation. Fukuyama seems to be unaware that these religions have been fighting and killing each other for thousands of years, continuing to this day. The slaughters between Catholics and Protestants and between Shia and Sunni are hardly the best means of nation building. Over 1 million Armenians, orthodox Christians, were murdered in Turkey about 100 years back. Jews, Christians and Muslims worship the same God, just the one, and they kill each other constantly. Out of all religions only 2 religions convert and they have been attacking Hindus for over 600 years, only because we are idol worshipers, and so we can attain paradise by dying at the hands of 'believers'. Why is caste still a problem? Because liberals use it to divide Hindus to win elections while praising minorities as superior to Hindus, as happened in recent elections in Bihar " Human beings are not satisfied by material resources alone. They demand as well their authentic selves be publicly recognized - granted equal status," the fellow writes. Exactly. That is all we Hindus want.

Is it any point replacing hunger with cancer?

Monsanto is refusing to take any responsibility for the destruction of the cotton crop last year. Monsanto lost money last year because of the fall in commodity prices and the strength of the dollar but could still return $3 billion to shareholders in the form of share buyback. Domestic seed companies will face huge losses if Monsanto does not compensate farmers. Monsanto naturally denied any responsibility saying crop failures were as a " result of improper practices at farm level, absence of refuge planting(for the pest to feed on), and spread of illegal seeds." Entrepreneurs, such as Kiran Mazumdar Shaw, argue that the government should encourage research of genetically modified crops, which are the only solution to rapidly expanding numbers of poor people. That makes sense. Local production will make seeds cheaper and break the monopoly of foreign companies like Monsanto. But is it so simple? No company, including Indian ones, can function without making reasonable profits and there is no reason to believe that Indian companies are more righteous than foreign ones. They are always complaining about taxes, even though manufacturing companies get many exemptions, so that their ultimate tax liability is much lower than the service sector. It is inexplicable why not one Indian company finds it easy to manufacture refrigerators or air-conditioners while foreign companies seem to have no problems. While supporters see GM technology as the ultimate panacea for poverty among farmers, resistance to GM crops is ferocious. With some justification. They maybe GM but they cannot grow without water like Jack's beanstalk, so if the monsoon fails crops are destroyed. The seeds maybe resistant to one type of pest but mother nature may have others on offer. When farmers in Punjab planted cotton, resistant to boll worms, crops were destroyed by whitefly attack. Large families have led to divisions of farms so that most farmers have smallholdings. They cannot leave land aside for planting decoy corps for pests to feed on, as Monsanto demands. Excessive production may not be a boon because bumper crops result in falling prices, as happened last year. In any event farmers end up committing suicide. Pests are one problem. Then there is the problem of 'super weeds', resistant to Roundup, Monsanto's weedkiller. A farmer in Arkansas, in the US, described weeds " eight feet tall, they're the diameter of my wrist, and they can stop a combine (harvester) in its tracks ". BT is an abbreviation of Bacillus thuringiensis which produces 3 types of proteins, toxic to insects. While drugs have to undergo stringent tests for safety no such comparable tests have been carried out for BT corn or other food items. Drugs are prescribed for the duration of an illness but food has to be eaten for life. Therefore, we should study the effects of BT food on a group of volunteers who will eat only GM food, supplied by the companies. Maybe cancer rates are rising worldwide because of GM foods.

Helicopter money worked in India, perhaps too well.

Famous economist, Milton Friedman was responsible for inventing the term 'helicopter money' in which the government drops cash from a helicopter, which is collected by the people, resulting in a surge in demand as they spend their windfall, thereby stimulating growth in the economy. Apparently, economists are beginning to discuss such a possibility because quantitative easing and negative interest rates, where you pay to keep your money in the bank, have not dispelled the fear of deflation. Central banks of developed countries feel that an inflation level of 2% is ideal, low enough for people to plan their expenses, but with no danger of falling into deflation. 'Helicopter money' could be achieved by the central bank transferring money to bank accounts of citizens or by the government reducing taxes. Trouble is, that too little will not work and too much may result in prices jumping too high, so that tough measures have to be taken to bring them under control. Why the panic? The US payroll figures show that 242,000 jobs were added in February, bringing the unemployment level down to 4.9%. No economy can achieve 100% employment because then companies will not find any worker and wages will rise to unsustainable levels. Some unemployment will always be there as people change jobs and new applicants enter the job market from schools and universities. So what is the ideal rate of unemployment? The Federal Reserve considers that 4.5-6% is the normal long-term unemployment rate so the present rate should be satisfactory. Some think that the Fed should be aiming for an unemployment level of 3%. The US economy grew strongly last year and inflation has increased to 1.3% but some are predicting a 100% certainty of a recession in the US by 2018. The Chinese government is increasing credit towards keeping the rate of growth above 6.5%. Interest rate has been cut 6 times. Problem is that China already has an excess of infrastructure lying useless so would the increase in credit work at all. Despite buying bonds worth $661 billion per year, also known as quantitative easing, Japan's economy contracted by 0.4% in the last quarter of last year. In desperation the central bank cut interest rate to negative in January. Barclays Bank is predicting that negative interest rates could last for years in Japan and the Eurozone. But is there any evidence that 'helicopter money' will work? There is some evidence from India. The Congress increased handouts to hundreds of millions resulting in inflation levels of over 11% in 2012 and a fall in the growth of the economy. It was at a high of 5.69% in January. Yet stock markets have risen sharply because the recent budget predicts a fiscal deficit of 3.5% for the year. Why? Because the RBI may reduce interest rate, helping the rich to accumulate more assets. The rest of us will become poorer.

Enemies are not likely to cooperate, are they?

Some Americans ask in anguish why has the US stopped winning wars? Did the US ever win any war? The 2 World Wars were fought alongside European countries, especially Russia. Korea was a draw with a still undeveloped China, and after that it has been one ignominious defeat after another, despite having the most formidable fire power ever assembled in history. Maybe it is because they are so convinced of their superiority that they cannot imagine being beaten by superior strategy. " Together, Russia and the Assad regime are deliberately weaponizing migration in an attempt to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve," told a General Breedlove to the Senate Armed Services Committee. Of course, they are. How did this fellow get to be a general without hearing of " All's fair in love and war?" " The indiscriminate weapons used by both Bashar al-Assad and the non-precision use of weapons by Russian forces, I can't find any other reason for them other than to cause refugees to be on the move and make them someone else's problem," he said. Absolutely, and very successfully too. And pray, what exactly is a smart bomb? Does it have a name written on it so that it kills only one? A bomb maybe very smart and hit the exact target where a terrorist is known to be but it is surely going to kill any family and friends who are with him, including children. The general seems to be unaware that 200,000 died in Iraq in the first Gulf War. The Russians insist that they are using the smartest weapons but you cannot have 'shock and awe', an American doctrine, without huge casualties. The ploy seems to be working. Although there is a truce at present the flow of refugees is continuing. Macedonia has closed its border with Greece so refugees are massing at the fence. Germany has already taken 1.1 million and may have to take millions more. The present truce in Syria is because a panicked Europe sees this as the only hope of keeping Syrians in their own homes by helping them with aid. But, would it not be ironic if the lull in fighting allows people, who could not find a way out for fear of being killed, to make the journey to Europe? After all if there is no trade, agriculture or manufacturing how are people going to survive. Vigilante groups are patrolling towns in Scandinavian and Baltic countries to protect their own people from assault and rape by asylum seekers. The same could easily happen in Germany. A diabolical solution will be to evict Greece from the European Union to stop the flow. Will that result in a war between Greeks and refugees right on the border of Europe? The real answer is to accept Russia as a European nation, lift sanctions and help its economy to prosper so that it has no reason for a strongman like Vladimir Putin. But, for some mysterious reason, Russia is seen as an enemy and China and Pakistan are seen as friends. Total incomprehension, like General Breedlove.

Is it right to deceive us with a money bill?

In a trick on the people of the nation the government is going to table Aadhar (Targeted Delivery of Financial Services and other Subsidies, Benefits and Services ) Bill, as a money bill in the Lok Sabha today. At first glance the intention seems to be pious. All handouts to the poor are to be transferred directly into their bank accounts. To that end 210 million people without bank accounts have been encouraged to open accounts, even with zero balance. This enables the government to transfer money directly into accounts of beneficiaries, thus eliminating theft. It also reduces the number of people who falsely register themselves as Below the Poverty Line, to take advantage of handouts. Thus, by targeting subsidies to the genuine poor the government reduces its total bill while making sure that no deserving person misses out.  So what is the problem? The first trick is that by introducing it as a money bill the Rajya Sabha, where the government is in minority, is taken out of the equation, because a money bill needs a simple majority in the Lok Sabha to be passed. The second trick is that the Public Distribution System or ration shops distribute grains, sugar and kerosene, which cannot be transferred to bank accounts, and is the source of massive thefts, as happened in UP. The National Food Security Act, passed by the Congress in 2013, guarantees grains at throwaway prices, take home rations and hot meals. Which, apart from costing humongous amounts of money, encourages the poor to produce more children. We are told that increasing number of young people is a demographic dividend because this provides India with a huge labor force, to increase production and create double digit growth in the economy. China is cited as an example. Is it? It is entirely possible that China's rapid industrialisation was due to its one child policy which prevented 400 million births and released millions of women into the workforce, which brought down labor costs, increased production and brought 600 million people out of poverty. Only 22.5% of women in India are working which means that 217 million women are missing from the workforce. The IMF estimates that if all these women joined the labor force the GDP would expand by a mind-blowing 27%. The final trick is that the tax paying middle class receives nothing from the government. No education, no healthcare and no pension. In Denmark, where every citizen receives social benefits, such a number makes sense but in India it smacks of a gestapo state forcing citizens to provide photos, prints of all 10 fingers and iris scans. For what? When a Home Minister covers up for terrorists it means that our politicians are our worst enemies. Our biometric data in the hands of such scum is deeply worrying. It is not a money bill, it is a double-cross bill.

Must be all in the genes.

They live in huge houses in Lutyens Delhi, make us sweat in traffic jams when they sweep past in a cavalcade of heavily armed commandos and receive a lavish lifestyle on taxpayer money, that even members of the US Congress can only dream about, but for what? They have to take an oath of office to " bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of India " and " uphold the sovereignty and integrity of India ", but the then Home Minister, Chidambaram, in-charge of the security of the nation, deliberately removed Ishrat Jahan's connection to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist organisation based in Pakistan, from an affidavit to the Supreme Court. Ishrat Jahan was killed in an encounter in Gujarat in 2004 along with 3 terrorists, 2 of them from Pakistan. The Congress which was in power for 10 years from 2004 tried to portray her as innocent and implicate the then Chief Minister of Gujarat, and now Prime Minster of India, Narendra Modi in the killing. Turns out that she and Javed lived as a couple in various hotels in UP, which is completely out of character for a single Muslim woman, and was claimed as a martyr by the LeT on its website and on its mouthpiece, Ghazwa Times, which was later withdrawn. Now a former Under Secretary in the Home Ministry, RVS Mani has claimed that a second affidavit was doctored as well and he was burnt with cigarettes by an officer of the Indian Police Service, Satish Verma, to submit the false affidavit to the Supreme Court. If that is bizarre, it gets worse. The commander of LeT in Kashmir, Shahid Mehmood, who would have known about Ishrat's involvement, was himself killed in an encounter in Kashmir 13 days after Ishrat's death and 18 members of the LeT cell, arrested by the J&K Police, were quickly freed on bail. Having got rid of the main witness the second affidavit sought to dismiss all circumstantial evidence by stating," All such inputs do not constitute proof.... The Centre is in no way concerned with any police action nor does it condone or endorse any unjustified or excessive police action." This is not a case of perjury or contempt of court, this is pure treason and treason is surely a hanging offence. If the father was conspiring to commit treason the son was building up a huge financial empire, spread over 15 countries, according to the Enforcement Directorate. Resorts in Sri Lanka, wine and stud farms in South Africa and a luxury flat in Malaysia, among others, acquired while dad was the Finance Minister. Of course Karti Chidambaram found the allegations very funny and dismissed them as " All yarns ". After her victory in a primary Hillary Clinton said," America has never stopped being great." We, sadly, will always remain a nation of traitors.

A bit of this, a bit of that and a bit meaningless.

The Union Budget day, the most terrifying day of the year, passed yesterday and thankfully we have not been saddled with huge tax hikes. What a relief! Now we can wipe our sweat and relax till next year, when the circus returns once more. There are some good things in the budget and some idiotic. What is the point in spending Rs 1 billion in reviving 160 airports if the excise duty on jet fuel is raised from 8% to 14%, which will make flying too expensive for a majority of people? With salaries of useless govt employees jumping due to the Seventh Pay Commission it is sensible to try to reduce the number of employees. Provided, of course, the govt knows how many employees it has. The biometric identity card will be made mandatory for all citizens so govt employees should be paid according to their Aadhar number, which will immediately banish ghost employees. A 0.5% cess has been added to Service Tax which will take it to 14.5% but it does not matter because a tax rate of 18-20% has been proposed in the Goods and Services Tax Bill. The budget hopes that the GST bill will be passed. Really? The nominal GDP growth has come down because of lower inflation which has increased the debt to GDP ratio from 57% to 67% in 3 years. With yields on bonds rising the interest outgo will be higher. Wholesale prices have been falling for 15 months in a row which means less collections from excise duties and VAT, which are levied on ad velorem basis. If GST becomes law the govt will not be able to increase taxes at whim with sly additions of cess, which are taxes on taxes, so its wish maybe pious, but false. Increasing rural infrastructure is vital and the proposal to create an e-market, which will reduce the stranglehold of middlemen on agricultural products, is absolutely brilliant. However, the increase in duty on latex to 20% will increase the price of condoms. Absolutely stupid, seeing that India is suffering from a population curse and condom use needs to be encouraged. Levying a cess of 2.5% on diesel cars is completely senseless. It would be much better to increase excise duty on diesel while lowering it on petrol so that both cost the same, as in the US, where petrol is slightly cheaper than diesel. Since diesel cars cost a lot more car owners will shift to petrol engines while diesel prices will not rise much because of very low crude price at present. Keeping diesel price low to keep inflation in check is stupid. Finally, the intention behind spending Rs 18 billion on increasing skills of young people is good but where are the jobs. Banks cannot lend because of huge bad loans and business fellows cannot repay loans because they have diverted the money into real estate and cannot reduce prices to sell properties because they have bought land at humongous prices. It will be a hard slog. But at least get rid of the idiotic bits.

When names and affidavits are not real are we in a nightmare?

Lies, rioting, tampering with evidence, abject sycophancy, Indian politicians will dive into any putrid cesspit for personal gain. P Chidambaram, who was Minister of Finance and Home in the previous Congress government, personally doctored a file, used for an affidavit in the Supreme Court, to delete any connection between Ishrat Jahan and the LeT, a terrorist organisation based in Pakistan. That surely makes him guilty of perjury, contempt of court, tampering with evidence and treason, for assisting terrorists. Recently, students in JNU have been shouting anti-Indian slogans for the hanging of Afzal Guru, implicated in the attack on our parliament in 2001. To murky waters further Chidambaram said that " one can hold an honest opinion that the (Afzal Guru's) hanging was not correctly decided." Really? Guru was hanged in 2013 when the Congress was in power and, being a lawyer, surely he should have voiced his doubts then. Why is he so slimy? Because unless you lick boots of party leaders you will not be appointed minister, which is when you rake in the moolah, or president, which puts you above the law for life. So overwhelming is the greed for power that they will incite riots, resulting in deaths, rapes and destruction of property worth billions of rupees as happened in Haryana recently. After the shooting of Indira Gandhi Sajjan Kumar was heard exhorting people to kill Sikhs saying," Indira Gandhi is our mother and these people have killed her." Not a single politician has been punished for those killings. Because leaders offer protection to workers political parties are a magnet for all kinds of assorted thugs and scum, as is the case in Bengal. Doctors in Bihar are demanding guns after Mr Bihar, Nitish Kumar won the assembly election by linking arms with 'goonda raj'. In Tamil Nadu the Chief Minister, Jayalalitha is revered as a goddess by her followers who will do anything to show their admiration for her, including having her image tattooed on their arms, sticking her photos on aid relief for flood victims, pouring milk over her poster and even crucifying themselves. But while Trinamul is restricted to Bengal and AIADMK to Tamil Nadu the Congress is a national party which naturally came into power at the time of independence. Members of Congress feel that they are entitled to be in power permanently, and see the BJP as a usurper, even though they were overwhelmingly rejected by voters. There are doubts that the Gandhi name is not genuine but adopted for convenience. Modi is determined to root out corruption which is why the hatred is visceral. Let us hope he succeeds.

Should we not be trying to make everyone richer?

The Communist Party of China is proud that there are more dollar billionaires in Beijing than in New York but India is so proud of its poor that the Economic Survey recommends increasing handouts, to be paid for by increasing taxes on the middle class, so that everybody is poor. We read scary reports, such as that by the charity Oxfam, which says that the richest 62 people have as much wealth as the poorest 3.6 billion and the top 1% own more wealth than the rest 99%. In 2011 the Occupy Wall Street movement was born out of anger at this inequality. Bernie Sanders, who is campaigning to be the Democratic candidate in this year's presidential election in the US, wants to increase top rate of federal income tax to 54% but a professor, who has written a book 'Superbosses', says that the wealthy create more wealth for shareholders and employees than for themselves. We are told that world commodity prices are falling because of a slowdown in China, hurting economies of Brazil, Australia and Saudi Arabia. But China is still growing at around 7% which is one of the fastest in the world but that is slower than over 10%, and it is increasing poverty in the rest of the world. US consumer spending is in excess of $11 trillion a quarter, more than 5 times our annual GDP. Imagine what would happen if it were to slow. So what makes people wealthy? Billionaires are more likely to have attended elite schools and universities. Studies show that wealthy parents raise wealthy kids, even if they are adopted. However, the Right to Education Act has been a disaster because the Congress stopped all exams in schools, because children of illiterate parents will not be able to compete with classmates. Now 18 states have decided to bring back exams and detain students who fail. A study in the UK found that middle class parents use their knowledge and networking to help their children to earn more than more talented children from poorer families. It is wrong that an accident of birth should tarnish a child for life, say some. Others feel that it should be a duty of all parents to help their children to achieve the highest they can. Are we not proud that people of Indian origin are the richest ethnic group in the US? But maybe we are looking at the wrong end. The adverse effects of poverty are like a disease. If mothers are malnourished during pregnancy then those children are more prone to metabolic diseases and early deaths. Children from poor families have brains which are 6% smaller. Even as we are told that pollution is killing people in Delhi, studies show that people living in cities are wealthier and live longer than those living in rural areas. Why then is poverty glorified by the self-styled liberal, socialist intelligentsia in India? They must be gaining something.

If everything is paid for by the taxpayer what do they know?

The Economic Survey has published the usual socialist mishmash, saying that Rs 1 trillion could be saved if subsidies given to the rich are withdrawn. We are being constantly harangued to pay the market price for gas cylinders, that at least 23% of voters should be paying income tax, instead of 4% as at present, and companies must spend 2% of net profits on Corporate Social Responsibility but do you ever hear a peep about social responsibility of politicians and civil servants and withdrawing some of the subsidies they get? So who are the rich? Those who travel by planes or air-conditioned trains and those who buy gold have been labeled as rich. It does not specify how many grams of gold. Who is responsible for writing this tosh? The Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian, who has a D Phil in Economics from Oxford. Another DPhil from Oxford, Manmohan Singh completely ruined the economy while clinging on to his seat for 10 long years. Fiscal and Current Account Deficits climbed, retail inflation went above 10%, growth plummeted and our credit rating was within a hairbreadth of being downgraded to junk status. So what is the truth? Ten years after spending Rs 4.38 billion, 15 regional airports are yet to see one passenger. Obviously the vast majority cannot afford to fly. So what is the answer? Reduce taxes on air tickets so that they are cheaper. But then those who avail of the cheaper tickets will immediately fall into the rich bracket and you will have the socialists howling for reducing subsidies. So idiotic. Why do people buy gold? Because high retail inflation means that the rupee buys less everyday. There are only 3 ways of hedging against inflation: 1. Change rupees into a basket of currencies, including the dollar, the Swiss franc and the yen, but that will not be allowed by the RBI because if everybody does that the rupee will drop to 100 to the dollar. That will cause cost of imports, especially of oil, to soar and the economy will collapse. 2. Buy real estate. That is impossible for 99% of Indians because the cost of land has sky-rocketed so that the average cost of apartments in Manhattan in New York was a record $1,645 per sq yard, which comes to about Rs 1 million per sq yard, exactly the same as property prices in so-called posh areas of Delhi. Low cost housing is of little use because they will be too small for Indian families and too far from the place of work, increasing commuting costs. Ironically, anyone who has inherited a property has an asset worth millions but may be earning too little to pay income tax. 3. Buy gold. The rich may buy gold bars but for the poor it is ideal hedge against inflation. You can buy 5-10 grams and keep it in a bank locker in case of an emergency. If politicians and civil servants, with huge salaries, pensions and freebies, came out of their air-conditioned palaces they might learn about the real economy. But why should they? 

We know already, why bore us with details?

The annual circus, the Budget, is to be held on 29 February so every self-appointed pundit is giving his opinion on what the Finance Minister should do. But we, the people, already know what it will contain, don't we? Taxes will be raised on services, alcohol and cigarettes, for the hallowed purpose of helping the poor, more cess, which are taxes on taxes, will be added to fund social schemes and more handouts for the rural poor will be announced. It would be a bore except that prices will rise and we will be left poorer at the end. If the revenue raised from taxes is insufficient the government borrows from the market by selling bonds through the Reserve Bank. This adds to the fiscal deficit and the debt to GDP ratio. High fiscal deficit results in high inflation, which hurts the poor, so the FM wants to reduce it to 3.5% of GDP. That will not be easy because 2 failed monsoons have resulted in a fall in rural demand, rise in retail inflation from 3.69% in July to 5.69% in January, and a fall in investment. Our total debt is Rs 65 trillion, which means that the government has to borrow to pay interest on previous debt. So, we are already in a debt trap, which will increase by another few trillions because of the Seventh Pay Commission for civil servants and the One Rank One Pension for the armed forces. If the GDP is growing fast tax collections also increase but although the real GDP grew 7.6% this year, up from 5.1% in 2012, growth of the nominal GDP, which is real GDP plus inflation, has fallen from 13.1% in 2012 to 8.1% this year. That is because the present governor of the RBI has succeeded in bringing down retail inflation from 11.17% in 2012 to 5.69% today. Fall in nominal GDP has raised the debt to GDP ratio from 57% to 67% in 3 years. There are some who want the government to stimulate growth by increasing spending, by ignoring rising deficit. This is precisely what the Congress did, for which we are suffering till today. The government can increase spending only by borrowing more from the market but this is becoming difficult. At a recent auction of treasury bills the RBI rejected all bids because they were demanding yields at 8.63-8.88%, compared to 8.3-8.55% at previous auctions. Ten year bond yields rose from 7.77% to 7.82%. In September the RBI reduced interest rate by a hefty 50 basis points to 6.75% so that banks will charge less when they lend to customers or businesses. But why should banks bother to get less interest at higher risk when they can earn higher interest from sovereign bonds, which are totally risk free? Foreign investors are selling out on Indian bonds because they fear a rating downgrade. No wonder households are less optimistic about the future. Whoever gains, we will be worse off. Just a big yawn.

Who is a greater danger for ordinary people, like us?

On 2 December, 2015 Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik, of Pakistani origin, shot 14 people to death and injured another 22 at a party in San Bernadino in California. The FBI found an iPhone, belonging to Farook, but has been unable to access its data. Normally, they would go on trying passwords until one worked but an encryption software automatically wipes the phone's memory after 10 failed attempts. The FBI wanted Apple to write a backdoor to the phone which will disable this function so that they can access its contents. Apple refused, the FBI went to court and the judge ordered Apple to create such a backdoor. So far Apple has been holding out. The government says that it is asking for Apple to open just one phone whereas Apple says that once the software is created anyone using any Apple product will become vulnerable to hackers. Not much point in having freedom of speech if you cannot speak in confidence, is it? Victims are filing a separate case against Apple because they want to know why this happened. How will it help them if they find that the shooters were religious fanatics or that they hated Americans or that it was revenge for relatives killed in US drone attacks? We understand that they are emotionally upset but this is illogical. What did they learn from the shooting of 20 little children at Sandy Hook Elementary School? Despite repeated shootings a majority of Americans oppose gun controls but because this has been called a 'terrorist incident' they are getting all emotional. Perhaps they should ask the government why it is bent on selling 8 F-16 jets to Pakistan despite this episode. Alright to kill Indians as long as they stay away from the US of A, what? There is only one reason where unlocking the phone might help and that is if there are names or other data which might lead them to a terror cell. The FBI has been trying to link this attack to a terror plot to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan, in 2012. Apple fears that sales of its devices may fall of people are afraid that their personal information maybe hacked and other governments are sure to demand the same assistance from Apple in future, if it gives in to the FBI. For us, who are not Americans, this is deeply disturbing. The US has been spying on leaders of other countries, including those friendly to the US. In an act of air piracy the plane carrying Evo Morales, the President of Bolivia was almost hijacked by European governments, obeying instructions from Washington. Do we want our personal information to be freely available to the Americans so that they can 'rendition' anyone they feel can provide some information on 'waterboarding'? For that matter do we want our government to know our information when the Congress passed the infamous section 66A, which allowed the police to arrest anyone criticising the government, especially since the government has our biometric details on Aadhar cards? We can fight terrorists, we have no defense against governments. They are a greater danger.

Why do politicians hate outsiders, such as Trump and Modi?

CNN is projecting that Donald Trump has won a massive victory in Nevada, with 42% of votes, Marco Rubio coming a distant second with 25% and Ted Cruz trailing in third place with 21.9%,  ahead of super Tuesday on 1 March, so that he carries the momentum to winning the Republican party nomination for the presidential election in November. So, who is The Donald, as he likes to call himself? He is a billionaire who built his fortune from real estate, has been married 3 times, has promised to build a wall to stop illegal immigration from Mexico, says that he will temporarily ban Muslims from entering the US, says that he has not been bought by special interests like other politicians because he is funding his own campaign and says that he will make the US great again. Naturally, liberals, who always talk down to us from the summit of Mount Olympus, say that he " is an ill-informed, inexperienced, bigoted, sexist xenophobe. And he's not a conservative at heart, just a pandering opportunist." So, what about the people who vote for him? Well they are a " Confederacy of dunces " said one newspaper, another saw New Hampshire voters as "...racist sexist xenophobic " and a third felt that the media had been soft on him and not focused on " months of bigoted comments and pathological dishonesty ". Although completely different there are similarities between Trump and our Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Modi is not a billionaire but, like Trump, is feared because he cannot be bought. Trump is paying for his own campaign and Modi has no children, so no need to amass a fortune for them by any means possible. Trump is accused of creating an atmosphere of paranoia while Modi is reviled as spreading Hindu terrorism through an army of saffron chaddis. Trump promises to " Make America Great Again " while Modi is derided for promising " acche din ", which means " good times ", even as political opponents have disrupted 2 sessions the Rajya Sabha completely so that the economy is not allowed to grow and Modi can be blamed for persisting poverty. The media in the US abuses Trump in vile language in an effort to promote his opponents whereas the media in India is creating social tensions, even rioting, by manufactured stories about minorities and dalits. Trump has promised to build a wall to stop illegal immigration from Mexico while Modi is trying to stop immigration from Bangladesh which is being encouraged by the Congress, to increase its 'vote bank'. Americans are angry because of lack of jobs, immigration, because it is becoming weak and because people despise politicians who have brought Congress to a standstill out of petty self interest. Sound familiar?

Can there be a lower than low caste?

A survey of 1,491 salaried or self-employed people in 11 cities in India shows that half of them are not satisfied about the state of our nation. Compared to 2014, 41% think that the economy will improve next year as opposed to 38% who think that it will get worse. Worries about jobs, corruption and rising prices are common. Another survey showed that 70% of people in Delhi believe that there has been no reduction in corruption under the AAP government. For the first time 58% are worried about the rising population, a rapidly multiplying cancer that is destroying our nation. First it was the Patels in Gujarat who demanded to be classified as low caste. Then it was the turn of the Kapus in Andhra and within the last week there have been violent clashes in the outskirts of Delhi, resulting in 19 deaths, as Jats have been demanding that they be classified as low caste. Why are prosperous farming communities looking to be classed as low caste? Because digital knowledge is changing the world at blinding pace where those who know English and are skilled in computers will earn vast amounts while artificial intelligence and robotics take away traditional jobs in industry. The Land Acquisition Act of 2013 has made it almost impossible for farmers to get out of farming. Reserved seats in higher education will provide a paper certificate which will then lead to a government job, which is permanent, where no one is sacked for incompetence and provides a guaranteed salary with a fat pension on retirement. Worth fighting for. A socialist state provides education to everyone equally. Not so in India. Data from the International Monetary Fund compares India with Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Myanmar, Nepal and Rwanda, whose economies are a fraction of that of ours. On education India spends 3.90% of GDP compared to 8.10% by Ghana. On healthcare we spend 1.30% of GDP while Rwanda spends 6.50%. Why so dismal? Because central government revenue is 20.10% of GDP while Mali raises 22% of GDP in revenues. This leads to high indirect taxes which raise prices, hitting the poor. To get votes politicians resort to large numbers of social schemes so government expenditure is 27.10% of GDP, leading to 7% shortfall in revenues, compared to spending. Naturally, government debt is 63.9% of GDP, which means high interest payments. Low oil prices have reduced subsidy on kerosene by half while increasing excise collection on oil. Weak growth in China has reduced commodity prices, which is good, but dumping of goods by China is hitting our industries. Exports have been falling for 14 months and if interest rate rises in the US the rupee may fall, increasing inflation. There is only one solution. Reduce demand by reducing population. Else, expect everyone to ask for lower caste status.

It will be great but can we bear the pain?

China is our main enemy so if its economy sinks then very good for us. Trouble is that when a Titanic sinks there are a lot of casualties and we will not be immune. As its economy has slowed China is left with a huge overcapacity in steel production, which it is dumping on world markets. Arcelor-Mittal has announced a loss of $7.9 billion for 2015. Tata Steel reported a loss of Rs 21.27 billion in the last quarter, compared to a profit of Rs 1.57 billion during the same period last year. Net sales fell 16%, partly due to increased import of Chinese steel into India and partly due to reduced exports because of dumping of Chinese steel on world markets. In an effort to boost growth the Chinese government decided to increase spending and boost bank lending. But, will it work? Trouble is that China is a command economy and its leaders are used to controlling every aspect of people's lives. The only way to boost growth is by devaluing its currency which will make exports more competitive compared to that of other countries. The yuan was devalued by 3% in August last year and again in January but this led to a collapse in its stock markets. You can have a command economy but you cannot have a command market. The fall in the value of the yuan has led to an outflow of over $1 trillion from the country, known as Smurfing, as the rich try to protect their wealth. The Peoples' Bank wants to let the currency finds its own level against other currencies because China is keen to join the Special Drawing Rights of the IMF, which consist of the dollar, the pound, the euro and the yen, at present. The IMF will hesitate to include the yuan into the SDRs if China institutes currency controls. It could devalue the currency by 25% in one fell swoop and then let find its own level. This would increase exports and investors would buy the yuan because it will be undervalued. But Chinese companies hold $1 trillion of foreign currency debt which will be difficult to service and repay. Just as the fall in the price of crude oil has restricted Saudi Arabia's capacity to fund terrorist organisations all over the world so the fall in foreign currency reserves may restrict China's capacity to buy support for its government's aggressive policies in its neighborhood. One expert thinks that China has no choice but to continue to devalue its currency, thereby exporting its deflation to the rest of the world. Central banks have been reducing interest rates to negative in an effort to reduce the value of their currencies which will increase exports and stimulate growth, but it is not working. Very low interest rates help the rich to buy more assets, leading to asset price bubbles and increasing inequality. The rupee is also falling but the RBI cannot let it fall too much because retail inflation is already high. China's fall is welcome but it will be very painful for us. Too painful?

Do the poor realise how lucky they are?

An article on the Goods and Services Taxes Bill, written by 2 authors, makes a case for the upper limit to be written into the constitution, so that the limit may not be raised according to the whim of the government of the day. The Congress has made it one of three demands before it will support the bill in the Rajya Sabha, where it has a majority, within 15 minutes. Which is a bit rich because it was the Congress which increased the number of services which are taxed, by coming out with a negative list in 2012, which means that every service not mentioned on the list is taxed, including rent and fees for in-hospital treatment. The government is resisting being tied down to an upper limit because politicians want to be able to increase handouts to win elections. It is very difficult to increase direct taxes, which is paid by around 3% of people, so the government depends on indirect taxes, comprised of excise, customs duty, VAT, service tax and so on. " Taxes are collected in two categories - direct taxes (tax on income and wealth) and indirect taxes ( tax on products and services)," write the authors. " Direct taxes typically impact the wealthy elite and the earning middle class. Indirect taxes are by standard convention, regressive in nature and their marginal impact is much greater on the poor than the rich. India collects twice as much in indirect taxes than direct taxes. India's direct-indirect tax ratio is 35:65. This is sharp contrast to most OECD nations where this ratio is either equal or higher i.e. more biased towards direct taxes. In other words, India's tax structure is sharply skewed towards placing a greater relative burden on the poor." India's tax to GDP ratio went from 6% in 1950 to 17% in 1990 but has stayed at the same level from 1990 to 2014 when per capita GDP increased 5 fold. It maybe because most of the increase was in the services sector which now contributes 52% to the GDP but is mainly is construction, hospitality and retail sectors where wages are low. Indirect taxes hurt the poor by increasing the cost of goods and services, making them too expensive so that the poor have to settle for a lesser quality of life. Total tax on a new car in Delhi ranges from 25-48%. Taxes on air fares constitute 50% of the price of the ticket. The tax component remains the same even when an airline reduces ticket prices so poor people cannot afford to fly. Politicians do not feel the pain because they get most services free, at taxpayer expense. The authors argue that indirect taxes increase inequality so there is a case for a fixed upper limit to impose some discipline on politicians. Everyone fighting for the poor. Do they realise how lucky they are?

Easy to spend borrowed money.

Ever since the present government came in it has been battling Non Performing Assets, or NPAs, which is the jargon for bad loans in banks, left behind by the Congress. Companies were unable to service their loans because of falling growth in the economy, which reduced profits, and because huge loans were dished out to friends of politicians, as a part of crony capitalism. Publicly traded banks have added Rs 1 trillion in bad loans. Aggregate net profits of 39 listed banks have dropped from Rs 168 billion to Rs 3 billion and 24 public sector banks have reported aggregate net loss of Rs 109 billion in the December quarter, compared to last year. A few days back the Supreme Court, in response to a Public Interest Litigation, asked the Reserve Bank to provide a list of every company which has defaulted on loans greater than Rs 5 billion, in a sealed envelope. The Governor of the RBI has said publicly that ostentatious celebration of birthdays is shameful while defaulting on bank loans. In 2013, Pramod Mittal spent 60 million Euros, or Rs 5.05 billion, on his daughter's wedding in Barcelona while his company owed billions of rupees to banks in India. The RBI resists disclosing names of defaulters, maybe because it fears that investors will dump their stocks and, since a lot of these companies have borrowed against their shares, banks will be left with lots of worthless paper. Seems that the Supreme Court is not buying that argument and thinks that banks are owned by the public, in the form of shareholders or depositors, so there should be greater transparency. However, it is not clear how this knowledge will help because the crooks are protected under present laws. Under limited liability laws their own losses are limited to their shares which are worthless anyway and the value of the factory and land owned by the company are a fraction of the amount owed to the bank. While ordinary people have to provide collateral to get loans bankers bend over to provide billions in loans to the wealthy without any personal guarantees. An incensed restaurant owner in Paris has put up a sign saying that dogs will be allowed into his restaurant but bankers will have to pay 70,000 Euros to enter, after having been repeatedly refused loans to open a second branch. Politicians force public sector banks to lend to the agricultural sector as part of vote-bank politics. While total loans to the agricultural sector has risen to Rs 7.5 trillion its share of the GDP has fallen to 13.94%. Bankers do not understand cost effectiveness of projects and then there is outright cheating, known as 'suitcase banking'. There is too much stink. The RBI is trying to contain it.