It's not Putin, or Trump.

"President Donald Trump said he did not regret going to war against Iran despite the impact the conflict may have on the November US midterm elections." "Trump reiterated his thinking the war will end immediately after the midterm elections." ET.  "Global markets came under renewed pressure...as a sharp jump in oil prices intensified inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher and raising expectations that central banks may be forced to keep interest rates elevated for longer." Brent crude futures surged nearly 6% overnight to $109.97 a barrel." News18. Yield of US 10-year Treasuries jumped to 4.965, perilously close to 5%. Investing.com. "Indian government bonds plunged in opening deals today," as "The 10-year benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yields hit 7.0211% after closing at 6.9762% yesterday." ET. That is a spread of just over 2%, or 200 basis points (bps) with the US. In its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its benchmark interest rate fixed at 3.50%-3.75%, while, in its August meeting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) followed suit by keeping its policy rate fixed at 5.25%. Forbes. That is a spread of 150-175 bps. The bond market is hinting that interest rates need to rise. Governments sell bonds to finance their fiscal deficit. "Foreign fund flows into Indian bonds have reversed after an unprecedented spike three months ago, reflecting the combined impact of persistently high global yields, Bloomberg's move to defer inclusion of local debt on a key gauge, and increasingly shortened odds on a rate hikes." ET. "The rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon," as "Investors are selling bonds, pushing prices lower and yields higher." "Bond yields set interest rates across the economy, and a steep rise in yields can raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans and student borrowing." CNN. "The US, UK, France and Japan now confront elevated sovereign bond yields." India seems quite safe. India's overall public debt is at 81% of GDP, the combined fiscal deficit of States and the Centre is at 7% of GDP, economic growth is strong and foreign exchange reserves are adequate. We should guard against fiscal dominance, encourage private investment and R&D and remember that the "current ability to borrow should not be confuse with tomorrow's capacity to service debt comfortably," wrote Anoop Singh. This year's budget targets revenue deficit at 1.5% of GDP in FY 2026-27 and fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP. Those figures seem comfortable but , worryingly, "Interest payments account for 26% of total expenditure, and 40% of revenue receipts"  (PRS). India's real GDP grew by 7.8% in the first (April-June) quarter of FY 2026-27 compared to last year. Using new methodology the nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, was reduced from Rs 86 trillion to Rs 80 trillion but, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said that real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, was Rs 81.36 trillion over Rs 75.46 trillion last year. Mint. Some of the growth could be due to base effect. On 28 February 2026, the RBI held a record Rs 21.34 trillion of government paper compared to Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025. This is "tantamount to deficit monetization," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Also, the RBI transferred a record Rs 2.87 trillion as dividend to the government from its surplus this year. Kotak Neo. Indian banks have borrowed $127 from non-resident Indians (NRI) but "have left much of their future interest payments on overseas FX deposits unhedged, creating a source of potential dollar demand that could compound depreciation pressure in a rupee-weakening scenario." ET.  The fact that India is borrowing a huge $127 billion at very high interest seems to be a red flag. All because the RBI refuses to raise its policy rate. Don't blame Putin. Or Trump.