Monday, September 14, 2026

Digital has no substance.

"De-dollarisation was one of the most-discussed topics ahead of the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi. However, like previous summits, BRICS did not come up with a proposal for a common unified currency. Instead, the grouping encouraged the New Development Bank (NDB) to expand financing in local currencies." News18. Central banks have been reducing their dollar holdings anyway. A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) found that, "More of the world's central banks plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them in the coming decade as political risks associated with the US currency rise." But, "There is no clear alternative to the dollar and it has rallied 3% this year, driven by higher US interest rates, a thirst for US assets and a flight to safety sparked by the US-Iran war." Reuters. The value of the dollar is rising because of the US attack on Iran, increasing the price of oil and causing global inflation. What an irony! However, "Over the past few years, central banks have been quietly buying up significant quantities of gold," "led by Russia, China, Turkey, India and Kazakhstan," and now hold "more than 36,000 tonnes." The Conversation. France and Germany transferred their gold back home from the US, while "The Dutch sold about 59 tonnes in New York and then bought more stocks in London," which they stored in the Bank of England. BBC. To reduce dependence on the dollar, "India is likely to pitch seamless cross-border digital payments and greater adoption of central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, among BRICS members at the summit." India does not favor a BRICS currency to replace the dollar. ET. Recently, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further advance its wholesale and retail digital rupee pilots as adoption of tekenisation gains ground in the financial markets." ET. CBDCs are issued by central banks and, "Unlike cryptocurrencies, which are decentralized and volatile, CBDCs aim to provide stability and are government backed." "Privacy is one of the most significant drivers behind cryptocurrency. CBDCs would require an appropriate amount of intrusion by authorities to monitor for financial crimes." "Cryptocurrencies have been the target of hackers and thieves. A central bank-issued digital currency would likely attract the same crowd of thieves." Investopedia. "Hackers thought to be for the North Korean regime have successfully converted at least $300 million of their record-breaking $1.5 billion crypto heist to unrecoverable funds." "Experts say that the infamous hacking team is working nearly 24 hours a day - potentially funnelling the money into the regime's military development." BBC. Will the RBI guarantee a full refund if someone's account is hacked? In April, "The central bank is seeking to rein in rupee volatility through enhanced oversight of foreign-exchange markets and by tightening norms governing banks' participation in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) segment." "Traded mainly in financial centers such as Singapore and London, rupee NDF contacts are settled in dollars between non-resident counterparties, limiting the central bank's ability to directly influence volumes, pricing or positioning." ET. If an Indian company pays for imports with a large amount of rupee CBDC how will the RBI control what the foreign company does with it? Finally, what happens if Iran, a member of BRICS, insists on paying for imports at the official exchange rate of the rial instead of the market rate through its CBDC? While the official rate is 1.375 million Iranian rials to one dollar (Paytm), the market rate is 2.305 million to one dollar (Alanchand). CBDC has no substance. Junk it. Dollars are real. Stick to it.  

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