Who is the ringmaster among all the clowns?

Western politicians have been used to dictating to the rest of the world. After all they were colonial masters at one time. But the world has changed so that their actions are rebounding on them. After instigating an armed rebellion in Ukraine, which forced an elected president to seek refuge in Russia, the west imposed sanctions on Russia for supporting Russian speakers in the east of the country. It has not worked out as the west wanted. Ukraine is now a divided country, with the east functioning independently of Kiev, and the current President, Petro Poroshenko presides over an increasingly corrupt government. Sanctions imposed on Russia, coupled with the collapse in oil prices, have devastated the Russian economy. In July the US concluded a nuclear deal with Iran, with a promise to lift economic sanctions. In August the Quds Force Commander, Qassem Soleimani visited Moscow. In September the US warned Russia against any military intervention in Syria but by the end of the month Russia had started bombing rebel positions in that country. In November Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 which was returning from a bombing mission in Syria. Turkey claimed that the plane had strayed into its territory while Russia said it was because son and son-in-law of President RT Erdogan are smuggling oil from ISIS, providing it with funds to pay its fighters, and were angry that oil trucks are being destroyed. The Russian pilot of the plane was shot dead as he parachuted to the ground. Russia is hunting for the killer, Alparsan Celik, a Turkish citizen, who is in hiding in Turkey. Just as the west still thinks that, as former colonial masters, other nations should obey its orders Erdogan dreams of restoring another Ottoman empire. He has been playing tricks, hoping to emerge as the only regional power as other countries grow weaker through fighting. He has been supplying arms to Syrian rebels in an effort to bring down the Assad government. He has been forced to support US bombing of ISIS but is bombing the Kurds, who are the only fighters, fighting ISIS on the ground. As millions of migrants have flooded into Europe fears are growing about large numbers of terrorists entering Europe posing as migrants. Western leaders have no idea on how to control the flood of refugees so the UN has convened a conference in Geneva to broker a ceasefire. Even as the conference got under way Syrian government forces were encircling Aleppo, with the help of Russian bombing, and cutting off supply lines from Turkey. Russia has established a no-fly zone over northern Syria in retaliation for the shooting down of its own plane and is supplying arms to the Kurds, storing more trouble for Turkey in future. Syrian fighters gathering in Geneva are looking at total surrender to Assad. Meanwhile tens of thousands of desperate refugees are gathering at the border with Turkey. Obama, Cameron, Erdogan and other clowns have become spectators. So, who will turn out to be the ringmaster?

Respect for Mr Ajay.

Mr Ajay has no surname. Because he is a cobbler, a mochi, which makes him a lower caste. Everyday he comes from east Delhi and sits on a pavement in Connaught Place where he repairs and polishes shoes all day. His father used to do the same job at the same spot and, as a child, Ajay used to come every evening to take him home because his father would be dead drunk. A common story of poverty, drink and misery. His father died when he was 15 years old, since when he has been doing this work, looking after his mother, his wife, one son and one daughter. " There is no standard for what I earn in a month. It can be less than Rs 10,000 and sometimes it can go up to Rs 15,000. All the money I earn goes in surviving - there are no savings ever," he says. He will have to be careful not to earn anything above Rs 20,834 per month, because he will have to pay income tax on any income above Rs 250,000 in one financial year, including 2% cess for education and 1% cess for higher education. If he wants to educate his children in private schools then he will have to pay exorbitant fees because 25% of seats are reserved for poor children under the Right to Education Act. If, by any chance, any of his children wish to study in IIT he should be prepared to pay fees of Rs 300,000 per year, or see his child rack up a loan bill of over Rs 1.2 million by the time they start working. He, or any member of his family, should not fall ill because doctor's fees and medicines will set him back by several thousand rupees. If he should require admission to hospital he will have to pay service tax on his bill. He should not mind because he will be contributing to the earnings of people he has elected to levy taxes on him. Their entitlements include services he cannot even imagine. He should be proud that members of parliament and civil servants are entitled to travel abroad for treatment on the taxes he pays. With companion. Of course, he can attend any of the government hospitals where he will have to wait in queue for hours to see a doctor, then for tests, and come back the next day to queue again to show the results to the doctor. He will be earning nothing for days, until he gets better. He has no hope for his future and neither the future of his children. It is the expense that bothers him. " Issi ka toh rona hai (that is what makes me cry)," he says. The RBI Governor explains that the rate of inflation has come down enough so that a pensioner can buy more dosas even if he is getting much less in interest on his savings. Ajay has no savings so inflation hurts. But Ajay is not begging, either for handouts as the rural poor or for huge bungalows in Lutyens Delhi, like our wealthy politicians. He is working with dignity. We salute Mr Ajay.

A handout by any other name.

It is the tenth anniversary of MGNREGA, which provides 100 days 'employment' to every rural person who asks for it. Politicians are rushing to take credit for the scheme and abuse each other for not implementing it properly. Over Rs 3 trillion have been spent on the scheme in 10 years and 128.6 million are said to be working under the scheme. It started as guaranteed payment of Rs 100 per day for 100 days and the amount has more than doubled today. Naturally, it is seen as a pure handout by many but for socialists it is a solution to all problems stemming from rural poverty. " While most critics lament the quality of assets created under MGNREGA, there is now increasing evidence based on rigorous studies, which suggest that not only has the asset quality been better than comparable government programmes, they are also used more by the community," writes a professor from JNU. However, he does not give any reference to the said studies or a list of assets created. How many roads were laid, how many bridges built or how many electric poles erected. Then he goes on to give the game away. " Not only has it led to the creation of a class of workers who are using the MGNREGA as a safety net, but these workers are also able to use it as a bargaining tool for extraction of higher wages," he writes. Exactly, it has taken a lot of people out of the rural labor market, raised rural wages, without increasing productivity, and caused food inflation, which is harming the very poor the scheme is supposed to protect. Food prices have been falling globally, grain prices falling by 35% compared to 2011, yet food prices continue to rise at over 6% in India. Why? Two poor monsoons are certainly to blame but the inflation has been worse in rural than in urban areas. High cost of food is contributing to retail inflation of 5.61%. The growth of trading in food is adding to GDP growth, taking it over 7%. Having caused food inflation with one scheme the government is going to announce a food security scheme of Rs 1.30 trillion. Not much point in dishing out wads of cash if there is no food to buy. So the government is going to import vast quantities of food, 2.8 million tonnes of corn, 4.5 million tonnes of oilmeals, 5 million tonnes of lentils and an unknown quantity of sugar. Yet, just a few months back sugarcane farmers were committing suicide because the price had plummeted because of a bumper crop. Spending so much on giveaways means that the government is unable to control its expenditure. Although the RBI has cut interest rate to 6.75% bond yields are at 7.8% because of heavy borrowing by the government. There are calls for the government to allow the fiscal deficit to increase to provide more stimulus to the economy. This is the game that the Congress played and look what happened. Will they never learn?

Why do we prefer fantasy in real life?

Eminent economist, John Maynard Keynes is reputed to have said," When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" In India policies are not based on information but on howling mobs, called activists. On the one hand they demand the right to food for all the poor but also demand that no trees should be cut, pesticides used to protect crops or dams be built to provide water for irrigation, so as not to damage the environment. Gender selection in babies is illegal in India. However, according to politicians and activists gender selection is still rampant. A census conducted by the government reveals that there are 944 girls for every 1000 born. The normal sex ratio in humans is 934 girls for every 1000 boys. Although there are minor variations this is true for every country in the world. If we look at the table for India there is an excess of girls in 18 states, up to Lakshadweep, after which the ratio falls off so that the average for the country is quite normal. A few days back Mrs Maneka Gandhi, Minister for Women and Child Development proposed that the law should be turned upside down so that gender determination is made compulsory and the baby will be followed to birth to prevent abortion of female babies. Naturally this has provoked a knee jerk outbreak of howling. The ignorance is breathtaking. First, there should be a study as to why there is such a huge excess of girls in Kerala and Puducherry. That might give a solution to female feticide. Second, do not waste resources on states that are already doing well so that resources are concentrated on the states that are doing badly. Women are under enormous pressure to produce boys so it is amazing that not one woman, politician or activist, is focusing on the real reason as to who is responsible for producing girls. Women have two X chromosomes so can contribute only an X, while men have one X and one Y, so it is the father who selects the sex of child. Our government keeps threatening to respond severely to repeated attacks by Pakistan but continues to talk peace even after the attack on the airbase in Pathankot. Yesterday, Hafiz Saeed praised the attack and promised new ones. So what is the fig leaf provided by our intrepid leaders? His group, the JuD, was not responsible for the attack but JeM was. Mad dogs cannot be distinguished with alphabets, you just shoot the lot. In an effort to control black money and reduce outflow of precious foreign currency the government made it mandatory to provide PAN number for any purchase of gold above Rs 200,000, which has only increased unofficial trading. The reason why people buy gold is because they expect prices to rise by double digits in the medium to long term. This means that they do not trust politicians to keep prices under control. Ascertain the facts, then act on them.

Why do Indians change when they go to the US?

When we read articles praising Indians we feel a warm glow of satisfaction. Trouble is that these are not really Indians, but Persons of Indian Origin, who are now citizens of the US. There was Rajeev Motwani who helped in developing the algorithm which started Google, which is now headed by CEO, Sundar Pichai. There is Satya Nadella at Microsoft, Nikesh Arora at Softbank, Shantanu Narayen at Adobe, Francisco D'Souza at Cognizant, Ajay Banga at Mastercard, Indra Nooyi at Pepsi and so on. Indians make up just 6% of the Silicon Valley workforce but 15% of Startups. Average income for Indian households is $86,135 per year, as opposed to $51,914 for all Americans. Indians are not just management types who head large multinationals. There are many famous in research. There is Rakesh Jain in tumor biology, Rangaswamy Srinivasan in ablative photo decomposition, Praveen Chaudhuri in materials science and B Jayant Baliga in insulated gate bipolar transistor, among many others, whose work is earning billions of dollars in industry. So why do Indians excel in the US and not at home? Part of the reason is our humongous population of 1.3 billion fighting among each other for a larger slice of fixed resources. The US is 4 times the size of India with 300 million people. The main reason is politics. Socialism in written in our constitution, which means you win elections by turning out vast multitudes of illiterate graduates by saving on quality. A panel has recommended that fees at IITs should be increased by 200% to Rs 300,000 a year. The thinking is that since Sundar Pichai, CEO at Google, qualified from IIT Kharagpur then all graduates will go on to earn millions of dollars, so they should study on loan. The majority of Indians do not earn Rs 300,000 a year and so will not be able to find guarantors for the loans and what if a student is unable to work full time through illness after qualification. How will he repay the loan? The IITs are starved of funds because government funds are used up in getting millions into schools and colleges, to prevent social unrest, even if they learn nothing. The government is left with no money to fund research. US universities have billions of dollars in endowments and university research departments tie up with companies so that there is constant innovation. Since graduates from IITs are doing so well they should have no problems in collecting donations from alumni. That is where politicians are a millstone around education. A former minister wanted all donations to go through his ministry. The same minister recently said that IITs produce scholars only for foreign countries. He does not even understand the damage he has inflicted. Since there is no quality companies do not take risks in India as they do in the US. So no progress. We will have to be satisfied with reading about Indians abroad.

Isn't it democratic if we are getting free service?

India is an older democracy than the US because our constitution guaranteed the right to vote to every citizen from the time it was written while blacks were allowed to vote in the US only after the civil rights movement in the 1960s, writes a professor. Although the British Parliament was established in 1701, women were not allowed to vote until the suffragette movement won that right in 1928. So what is 'democracy'? 'Democracy' comes from the Greek words 'demos' which means 'the people' and 'kratos' which means 'power'. But is true democracy really possible? In India it means going and pressing a button on an electronic voting machine every 5 years, following which politicians are free to do whatever they want under the protection of 'innocent until proven guilty', which is a fraud perpetrated on citizens because cases drag on forever so criminals are never punished. Americans at least have a 'Bill of Rights', consisting of 10 amendments, which give the right to property, free speech and the rule of law. We have nothing. Politicians give rights to people, not for equitable distribution of opportunities, but to divide people into little segments so as to get votes. Those left out feel discriminated against and angry. Earlier we had the Patels agitating for reservations in Gujarat and now we have Kapu agitation in Andhra. A Nobel Prize winning economist argues that poor people will always vote for increasing taxes on the rich to help the poor, which is not bad for the economy, and that is why the rich are against democracy. " All advanced nations have had substantial welfare states since the 1940s - welfare states that, inevitably, have stronger support among poorer citizens. But you don't, in fact, see countries descending into tax-and-spend death spirals - and no, that's not what ails Europe," he writes. We would suggest that it is because social security and Medicare is available for everyone but in countries where welfare is targeted only towards the poor, as in Brazil, Venezuela and India, taxes are very high to pay for social schemes, which harm business and increase poverty. There is constant attention on the top 1% of people who own more than half of all the wealth in the world. In the US, which has the largest number of billionaires in the world, the top 1% pay nearly half of all federal taxes. The recent election in Bihar is held up as an example of the poor voting to exert their rights to equitable distribution of resources. Was it? They were voting for handouts and not for some nebulous gains, from education or from reforms, in the distant future. It is a bitter truth that billionaires are rich because they innovate, have radical ideas, work hard and take risks to enrich our lives. After all Google, Facebook, Instagram and Youtube are free. You can phone across the world on Skype, for free. You cannot get any more democratic than that, can you?

Monkey see, monkey do in the Year of the Monkey?

It is beginning to seem increasingly likely that the global economy may plunge into recession towards the end of this year. Last month the European Central Bank cut interest rate to minus 0.3% and promised to continue its bond buying program to March 2017 or beyond. Then a few days back the Bank of Japan reduced interest rate to minus 0.1% while continuing its $666 billion bond buying program. Negative interest rates are meant to discourage savers from saving money, so that increased spending will stimulate production and create jobs, and force banks to lend money by making it expensive for them to park funds with the central bank. Critics say that it is just another way to devalue the currency by forcing foreign funds to look for returns elsewhere. However, while the yen fell on the news the Euro gained 2% against the dollar. No one is sure as to what is going on in China. What everyone is sure of is that the Chinese stock market has been falling despite government support. Part of the problem is that companies with political connections list on the stock market so the government is forced to prop it up. The Peoples Bank has poured $52 billion into banks to increase liquidity before the Chinese New Year holidays. It will be the year of the Monkey and an improvement in global economy is predicted. China is worried about the flight of capital as people fear that the yuan will continue to drop in value against the dollar. Foreign reserves have fallen by $700 billion and an article has warned George Soros, famous for making $1 billion in 3 days by short selling the pound in 1992, not to attempt the same with the yuan. Which may turn out to be a red rag to a bull. Oil prices have collapsed which is disastrous for economies like Russia and Venezuela and is even forcing Saudi Arabia to increase the price of fuel for its own citizens and to sell shares in Aramco. Sanctions on Iran being lifted will depress oil prices still further as Iran tries to catch up for all the wasted years. Whether the increased economic pressure on Arab oil producers leads to greater disturbance in the middle east remains to be seen. The US economy grew by just 0.7% in the last quarter of last year despite very low fuel prices, which is good for consumers. The strong dollar is hurting exports. Apparently," the bond market has been screaming recession for weeks ". High yield bonds or junk bonds are in meltdown which is another sign that the US economy could weaken. The Swiss government proposes to pay every adult 425 pounds and every child 100 pounds to end poverty. No 'targeted subsidy' here. Switzerland already has a negative interest rate and this maybe a way of increasing spending and creating inflation. A global scenario of monkey see, monkey do. It is the Year of the Monkey after all.

Can the GDP grow while production is falling?

Why are politicians constantly harping on the growth rate of our GDP, or Gross Domestic Product? GDP is a total of all the goods and services produced by the country and thus is a measure of the health of the economy. A robust growth rate gives bragging rights to the party in power although it means nothing to citizens because our comfort is dependent on our ability to earn a decent living without our lives being made difficult by arbitrary rule changes, such as the odd-even car restrictions in Delhi, or the lack of basic services, such as good roads and constant electricity supply. In terms of GDP India is apparently the fastest growing economy in the world, with the GDP growing at 7.2% in the first half of the financial year. If the economy is growing so strongly then more wealth is being created, demand must be strong and industrial output must be soaring. But other figures do not support such a conclusion. The Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing has been falling after a spike in July and the Wholesale Price Index has been falling for over a year. The capital goods sector, which indicates new investment, fell by 24.4% and yet Consumer Prices increased by 5.6% in December. How is it possible that the economy is growing while production is going down? Private consumption provides 57% of total demand and 54% of total consumption is spent on food, which means that food accounts for 31% of total demand. Food prices for consumers have risen by 6.3% but the wholesale price of food has risen by only 0.6%. So, the bulk of the rise in food prices has been due to trading in food, writes a professor. It is this that accounts for the high GDP growth. High spending on food means that households have less money to spend on consumer items, which accounts for falling industrial output in a high growth economy. To give a more meaningful picture Ambit Capital has come out with India Keqiang Index, after the Chinese Premier Li Kiquang, which is based on auto sales, capital goods and power consumption. This gives a growth rate of around 6% year on year. Falling demand means falling profits, which hampers companies from servicing their debt. This is proved by a 14% rise in pledging of shares by promoters. The proportion of shares pledged by promoters has risen from 27% of total holdings to 47%, from Rs 1.28 trillion to Rs 2.03 trillion. The other indication of poor output is the rising volume of bad loans in public sector banks. Exports are also sliding because of the weakness in the global economy. So the trade deficit is increasing. If more capital flows out the rupee will fall and so it is. How can the economy be growing so strongly when everything is going down? All very strange.

Zika will not be noticed in Delhi.

The government of India is to issue a travel advisory, asking pregnant women not to travel to countries suffering an epidemic of Zika virus disease. Earlier the Indian Medical Association issued a similar warning to pregnant women. What is the Zika virus? Apparently it is a virus related to dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever which was first detected in monkeys in the Zika forest in Uganda. Hence the name. Monkeys are the natural reservoir, like in the case of the Ebola virus. There is some anecdotal evidence of the virus spreading through sexual liaison so the advisory should surely include men as well. And not just recently married young men. An old man may carry the virus back to India and then get bitten by an Aedes aegipti female who then spreads it to a young woman. Also Ascending Paralysis, or Guillain-Barre syndrome, can affect men as well as women and, as the name suggests, weakness usually starts in the legs and spreads upwards to affect respiratory muscles, requiring ventilation in an intensive care unit to keep the patient alive. Treatment is therefore very expensive. Logically, the advisory should include everybody. Trouble with the Zika is that 80% of people get no, or minimal flu-like symptoms, which they ignore, but it has a devastating effect on the baby, causing a small head or microcephaly. In that respect it behaves like the German measles or Rubella virus. The vaccine for the Rubella is included in the MMR vaccine and is mandatory for every baby. Apparently it is difficult to test for the Zika because it cross reacts with antibodies to dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. Anyone travelling to African countries where yellow fever is endemic must take a vaccine before travel. The other 2 diseases have no vaccines as yet, although a vaccine against dengue is in Phase III trial. We are told that the Zika virus is 'spreading explosively' in South America because people there have no immunity against the virus, but if there is cross-reactivity with other viruses then they must have at least partial immunity to the Zika. The BCG vaccine against tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, seems to offer some resistance against leprosy, caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Delhi reported 10,683 cases of dengue last year because the AAP government did not get the drains cleaned before monsoon, resulting in stagnation of water, which is ideal for breeding mosquitoes. 41 people died. Vast number of mild cases must have gone unreported. Municipal workers in east Delhi are on strike because they have not been paid, causing garbage to pile up. If the Zika does get here we can expect an epidemic. Maybe there has been an epidemic already, causing small brains. That may explain why people voted for this gang.

Why would you want power if not for gain?

The Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International scores India at 38, the same level as 2 years ago. Transparency International is an NGO, based in Germany, which defines 'corruption' as " the abuse of entrusted power for private gain ". By that definition wealthy parents, occupying high posts, using their network of friends to give their children a higher start in life maybe deemed to be corruption. Real corruption comes from politicians and civil servants, who use the system to enrich themselves and pass laws to make themselves immune to prosecution. Like the CBI having to seek permission from the Governor of Maharashtra to charge a former chief minister in the Adarsh scam. Predictably Congress has accused the BJP government of using the CBI for political purpose. All this circus gives plenty of time for a fire to start 'accidentally', destroying all evidence, as it did in June 2012. Three people died in that fire but no one has been charged with arson. The 'honest' Nitish Kumar government in Bihar is withdrawing all cases against Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and family. Nitish Kumar cannot claim to have no knowledge of Mr Yadav's friends as our former Prime Minister does about all the scams that looted trillions of rupees during his 10 years in office. There are enormous protests across India about the suicide of a student in Hyderabad, who had been expelled for protesting against the hanging of Afzal Guru, a filthy terrorist. Yet there is not a whimper about the suicide of 3 girls in Tamil Nadu who had paid hundreds of thousands of rupees as fees to a college, but were not being taught anything. Education is big business in India with desperate parents paying millions for their children to get admission to professional colleges. There are allegations that the limbs of the 3 girls were tied, which would make it a triple murder. This is where politicians earn their share of the spoils, by forcing the police to declare it as suicide and confuse evidence so that no one can be convicted. Where are all the howling liberals when you need them? For some reason outrage is very selective in India. Mystery. If the death of a high profile person like Sunanda Pushkar has been thoroughly muddied what hope 3 girls from poor families have of ever getting justice. Sandal wood smuggler Veerappan killed police officers at will and yet got away every time. Dawood Ibrahim wanted to surrender but no one apparently wanted to arrest him. When coated with so much mud it is no surprise that politicians spend taxpayer money on advertising themselves, like whitening creams. If no one believes you in India why not advertise in foreign papers. At least the corruption is transparent. We can see it.

How will they distinguish between refugees, migrants or terrorists?

This year is going to be very unpredictable. The war in the middle east goes on, a previously unheard of virus, called the Zika virus, is causing microcephaly in babies in Brazil, the global economy could fall into a recession, China's growth is slowing down and the US is in the middle of its election jamboree. But it is Europe, thinks a professor, that is going to decide the geopolitics of the world. The many challenges facing Europe are recognised by the President of the European Parliament who thinks that nations could yet unite to solve the problems. " It is time for Europe's leaders to break the decades old habit of pursuing half-baked projects that blunt the symptoms of crises, and to implement real reforms that address root causes," he writes. " If Europe's leaders are to inspire their people to build a shared future, they must demonstrate an understanding of what the future has in store - and how to make the most of it. They should start by changing attitudes and committing to working together to face present and future crises head-on." Pious words. But just when we thought that a united Europe will follow common policies he recoils." My call for a renewed commitment to the EU does not stem from some federalist mantra," he hastens to correct himself. Exactly. The European Union is an assortment of 28 nations, each with its own elected government and different economies but with no control over monetary policy, which is set by the European Central Bank. That has created a north-south divide where the rich north feels that the south must become more competitive, while the poor south feels that the north is being vindictive. Perhaps, the migrant crisis will create a crisis that will decide whether the EU breaks up behind barbed wire fences or unites in a federal Europe where policies are common to all. The EU has blamed Greece for allowing migrants to come into Europe to which a spokeswoman for the Greek government responded," This tactic of diverting responsibility is not an effective response to a problem of historic dimensions." The Syriza government in Greece may still be smarting from the severe austerity imposed on them by the Troika and presumably see no reason why they should be spending scarce money on migrants. Apparently, Germany is unable to locate 600,000 migrants out of 1.1 million that it has admitted. Many have multiple identities and cannot be tracked by official agencies. Denmark has passed a law to confiscate valuables from migrants, which has been criticised by the United Nations. Sweden is to expel 80,000 refugees, but where to? In Finland some are adopting the Ku Klux Klan. Further terrorist attacks are certain in Europe's cities. How long before we see all out war?

How can you have research without basic education?

A survey of 56 countries by a think tank in the US finds that there is virtually no innovation from India. The figures are dismal. India, which means the government, spends $1,248 per school student, less than Colombia and Vietnam. We are in the bottom six in government funding of university research, behind South Africa and Brazil. Funding of university research is just $12 per capita and we have only 17 universities in the top 800 in the world. When it comes to published research articles we have almost none. Tiny countries like Israel, Denmark and Switzerland are way up there. Of course, research costs money and India is a poor country but why are Mexico, Ukraine and South Africa ahead of us in publications? The rot starts in primary schools. Teachers spend their time supervising the cooking of midday meals in government schools,especially after teachers were arrested when 23 children died of pesticide poisoning in a school in Bihar. Naturally, children, especially in rural areas, come to school to eat and learn very little because teachers are busy cooking. It is not surprising that they learn virtually nothing. Imagine paying huge salaries to teachers who are busy cooking. If children have learnt nothing in school they are unlikely to learn very much in college, which is why 80% of engineering graduates are not fit to be employed. A college degree serves to makes a person more eligible in getting a sweeper's job and those with PhD degrees apply for jobs as peons. The reason is that government jobs pay regular salaries, there is no danger of being sacked for poor performance and there are no other takers for people with useless degrees. The government controls all higher education through the University Grants Commission which gives great powers to politicians and civil servants. Mediocrity is an asset. Last year only 246 MBBS seats, out of a total of 600, in Delhi were in the general category, which means purely on merit, the rest being reserved for various other categories, who received admission with much less marks. Professors are promoted according to seniority and not appointed directly, as in the west, based on research publications. So, while people of Indian origin in the US are known for their research work professors in India get appointed on plagiarism. Because of poor standards wealthy Indians send their children to the US for higher education and donate to US universities, rather than to Indian ones. US universities boast of billions of dollars in endowments. A previous minister made it a rule that all donations to educational institutions must go through his ministry. Naturally no one donated. Those in power benefit from the system. Why should they change it?

Economy a hostage to politics, is there any hope?

Economists cannot account for politics because the behavior of politicians cannot be calculated. Politics is the only reason why India remains poor while China, South Korea and Singapore have zoomed ahead. A paper on the effects of politics on our economy from 1993-2014 suggests that in the nineties deals were open, which means they were transparent, and ordered, which means they were honored. From 2002-10, during the Congress regime when commodity prices were booming, deals became closed, when mines were distributed to friends and relatives. When the extent of corruption became public and revenues dropped because of stagnant growth deals became disordered, as when the government tried to impose retrospective taxation. So, what is happening under the BJP government? " After a decade of ossification, the landscape is changing at a rapid rate for India Inc. as: (1) An unconventional PM calls time on the traditional model of subsidy funded consumption growth and crony capitalism driven capex growth in India; (2) A gutsy RBI governor brings about multiple policy changes to radically increase competition in the Financial Services Sector; and (3) Technology lowers the barriers to entry into sectors such as lending, consumer goods and auto," says a report by Ambit Capital. And therein lie the problems. After carefully constructing a system where a few made billions from resources and votes were bought with handouts, paid for by punitive taxes, the whole edifice is in danger of collapse. That is why they have stopped all business in the Rajya Sabha so that all reforms will be blocked. The monsoon session was because of alleged shady deals by Lalit Modi, the winter session because of an alleged murder of a 'minority' and they are preparing to disrupt the budget session because of the tragic suicide of  a Dalit student. It is not that they are concerned about issues but it is an attempt to find any cause not to let the Rajya Sabha function so that the economy cannot grow and they have chance to win power back in 2019. Market capitalization of public sector banks have dropped so low, because so much money has been stolen from them, that 5 banks can be bought for $1.5 billion, when a start up, like Flipkart is valued at $15 billion. The RBI governor is trying very hard to clean up the banking system but the crooks are very well protected. Finally, technology maybe lowering barriers to some businesses but the use of technology is limited only to those with the skills, which means millions of unskilled could become redundant. A daunting challenge for the government when 80% of graduate engineers are unfit for employment. Since we do not export bananas we cannot be called a banana republic but on our Republic Day we pray for a strong wealthy nation. May our enemies wither.

Why do we believe in publicity? Are we idiots?

In a stunning revelation it seems that there exists a Committee on the Human Rights of Parliamentarians. Most of us ordinary folk would think that we urgently need a committee to protect our human tights from parliamentarians. Apparently, there were 320 attacks in 43 countries in 2015. Africa topped the list with 36% of cases while Asia came second with 29%. Two-thirds, or 71%, of all cases are by opposition politicians. Not surprising, is it? When 186 out of 543 members of the Lok Sabha have serious criminal charges against them. We are not talking parking tickets or failure to return library books. We are talking murder, kidnapping, robbery and rape. However, there was an attack on our most esteemed Chief Minister of Delhi when a woman threw ink on him, to protest against his policies. Since he is not a Scandinavian blonde we cannot see any sign of ink on him but his henchmen reacted furiously to this 'attempted murder'. " They may also kill people because they cannot stand the success of the odd-even scheme and AAP's popularity among the masses," fumed one henchman. No one has ever heard of anyone dying from a few drops of ink and surely being such a popular leader of the Aam Aadmi, which means ordinary people, he should allow such a harmless protest? Not a chance. The woman has been released on bail, on a bond of Rs 10,000. If he is so popular why has he spent Rs 600 million on his own publicity out of Rs 5.26 billion kept aside for this purpose. With so much of our taxes used for bluffing people there was nothing left for cleaning the storm drains of Delhi, which led to a Dengue epidemic, with 10,683 cases and 41 deaths. Why such fury over a minor incident? Because henchmen depend on the leader to protect them from the law, while the power of the leader comes from intimidation of the people, by the henchmen. In Bengal this has got out of hand so that no one wants to invest in the state. The Chief Minister says that she has been promised Rs 2.5 trillion worth of new investments but she has received proposals, not actual investments, of just Rs 68.71 billion. The Chief Minister's protection of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh led to a mob of 250,000 attacking a police station in Malda district. Terrorists from Bangladesh have established bomb factories in Bengal and are now planning attacks on the Republic Day parade in Delhi. The condition of UP is dire. Like in Delhi, the Chief Minister of UP bought a flattering advertisement in the Financial Times. How much taxpayer money was wasted we do not know. Indian politicians must think that the citizens are imbeciles to fall for blatantly false publicity. They maybe right, because they keep winning elections.

Why not replace the adversarial system with service? Much cheaper.

A chartered accountant makes a heartfelt plea for a better direct tax system. Direct taxes in India are based on the iniquitous 'Tax Deduction at Source', or TDS, which mandates that tax should be deducted before any payment is made. Thus, before paying salary an employer has to deduct tax and submit it to the tax department. A bank must deduct tax at 10% if the total interest accrued on term deposits exceeds Rs 10,000 in the financial year. Anyone paying rent in excess of Rs 1,80,000 in one year has to deduct TDS as well as Service Tax at 12.5% on the rent. Since the taxes are meant to be paid by the landlord it means that the payee is acting as an agent of the government. But, while politicians and civil servants get huge salaries and perks from the taxes we pay the payee is promised punishment if he fails to carry out the dirty work of our masters. The taxpayer has to claim back excess tax paid when he files returns at the end of the financial year and if there has been any mistake then he may never get his money back. Rs 650 billion in tax refunds have been paid so far this year but many people are still waiting. If refunds are delayed the authorities must pay interest at 6% but a panel, headed by a retired high court judge, has recommended less stringent treatment of taxpayers and a higher interest rate. Imagine the amount of money the government is wasting in paying the humongous salaries of tax officers, which has been increased by another humongous addition of 23.55% by the Seventh Pay Commission, for calculating refunds of millions of taxpayers and then paying interest on their sloth. The most amusing news for us hapless taxpayers is that no one, including the government, knows how many government employees actually exist because India has a long and proud tradition of 'ghost employees', whose salary is drawn every month. In her blog the accountant suggests a passbook system where an entry will be made every time a TDS is deducted on that taxpayer. It is an excellent suggestion to reduce taxpayer harassment and save time for officials but it does not go far enough. In a countrywide drive, that the gestapo would have been proud of, 93% of adults have already been issued an Aadhar card with a unique 12 digit number based on photographs, prints of all 10 fingers and iris scans. This is apparently to target handouts to the vote bank so that taxpayers do not benefit. Why not use Aadhar numbers for targeted salaries and eliminate the ghosts? The Aadhar number should be the only bank account number for individuals and tax officers will sit in main branches of banks where they will instantly calculate what tax to be paid. The adversarial system was used by the British. We want some service from our public and civil servants. Pipe dream?

For real wealth we need to sell abroad.

India's exports fell by 14.75% in December, 2015 to $22.3 billion while imports shrank by 3.9% to $33.9 billion, giving a trade deficit of $11.7 billion. Total trade deficit for the full financial year will be around $140 billion. The good news is that Indians living abroad remitted $70 billion back home and oil prices have fallen from a high of $115 to around $30 a barrel today, reducing our import bill. The bad news is that India has agreed with the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act which might restrict remittances from the US and the fall in the price of oil, while good for our import bill, will certainly reduce remittances from Gulf countries, as they reduce their budget spending to account for the severe reduction in income. An article explaining the steep fall in our exports says that "....the main culprit is the exchange rate of the rupee ". From 31 December, 2014 to 31 December, 2015 the rupee has fallen by 4.2% against the dollar, almost the same as the Chinese yuan which has fallen by 4.3%. But the South Korean won has fallen by 6.6%, the Thai baht by 9.4%, the Indonesian rupiah by 10.4%, the Mexican peso by 17%,and the Turkish lira by 25.4%. Even the Euro has fallen by 13.6% against the dollar. The strength of the rupee compared to a basket of currencies is shown by 2 indices - the nominal effective exchange rate, or NEER, which has climbed from 70 to 75.6, and the real effective exchange rate, or REER, which is adjusted for inflation, has climbed from 101.3 to 115.6. Why is our government comfortable with a strong rupee when it is harming our exports? It maybe because a strong currency gives the appearance of a strong economy or it maybe a way to attract foreign portfolio investment, to pay for our current account deficit. Foreign portfolio investment brought in a total of $89.5 billion in 2014-15, of which $57.2 billion was in debt and $32.3 billion was in equities. That is nearly a quarter of our total foreign exchange reserve of $350 billion. The rupee has fallen because FPIs have sold $1.23 billion of equities since the beginning of the year. What the article misses is that a strong rupee keeps inflation under control by reducing the price of imports, especially fuel, and allows the Reserve Bank to lower interest rate. This is because our politicians have an almost religious belief that low interest rates, regardless of any other factor, will somehow magically stimulate economic growth. Trade inside the country merely circulates the same money in a merry-go-round while exports bring in new money. Because of competition goods for exports have to improve constantly while keeping prices as low as possible. This leads to innovation and technological improvements which are vital for growth. That is why the Prime Minister has launched the 'Make in India' initiative. Not much point in having bags full of rupees. We need dollars, and for that we have to sell abroad.

Do they want to fight everyone?

A report by a retired High Court judge in Britain alleges that the Russian President, Vladimir Putin probably approved of the killing of Alexander Litvinenko, using radioactive Polonium, in London in 2006. What kind of a judge gives a probable opinion? Is that what they do in British courts - fellow probably committed a crime so throw him in jail? Clearly, this is a hatchet job by a retired judge, eager to please his political masters so that he is given more sinecures in future. So, who was Litvinenko? He was a KGB agent who turned rogue and was working for the British. He was therefore guilty of treason which would be punishable with life in prison, if not hanging, depending on where you are. Ever since David Cameron became Prime Minister he has been itching to start wars. He instigated the illegal war on Libya despite Gaddafi's warning that removing him would lead to the rise of Islamic terror groups which will attack Europe. An Iraqi defector, code named 'Curveball', lied about Saddam Hussein's WMD program, which led to the Iraq war. The first Gulf War killed at least 200,000 and another 500,000 are estimated to have died due to the second one. Britain was an eager accomplice in all these killings but is curiously shy about revealing the full extent of its involvement. The US has published some of the torture inflicted by the CIA but Britain is silent about its role in widespread war crimes, torture and genocide. Not only do the US and Britain commit atrocities they also support a wide range of terrorist groups like the Al-Nusra front in Syria. Pakistan is said to be mourning the dead in the attack on Bacha Khan University a couple of days ago. Are we supposed to feel sorry for the death of Pakistani scum just a few days after 6 of our soldiers were killed in the attack on Pathankot Air Force base? Who trains, arms and funds this terrorists? Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Afghan Taliban follow orders of the ISI, which is the intelligence unit of the Pakistan army, said Hafez Saeed Khan, chief of the IS-Khorasan, contemptuously calling them 'tawaghit' which means 'evil powers'. " There are specific arrangements in those regions and the Muslims will soon hear pleasant news about the Khalifah's expansion to those lands," he said about Kashmir. Pakistan has 110-130 nuclear warheads to threaten India so that it can continue with its support of terrorist attacks on India, says a US report. So what is the US going to do about it? It is going to reward Pakistan with a nuclear deal similar to that with India. Not only do the US and Britain commit the most genocides, they are also the biggest state sponsors of terrorism. We can only pray that these nuclear weapons go towards the west.

Right direction but still a long way to go.

The National Family Health Survey 2015-16 has published its findings, which show significant improvement in maternal and child health in the 13 states surveyed so far. Antenatal care is almost 100% and a majority of women are delivering in healthcare facilities. Infant mortality has declined in all states and 60% of all children have been immunised. But the survey throws up some amazing statistics as well. While all states report a decline in fertility rates they also report a decline in the use of contraception. How is that possible? Male fertility has been declining in the west, which has been attributed mainly to the use of plastics in everyday life. Some scientists dispute the fact that sperm counts are declining but Bisphenol A in plastics is said to have estrogen effect. Estrogen is a female sex hormone and so has deleterious effect on male fertility. Since plastic utensils are cheap poor people could be using them instead of glass or steel. Indians are certainly eating better. But they are eating more fats and less protein than before which maybe causing obesity and ill health. This needs research. The other amazing statistic is the sex ratio. The normal sex ratio at birth for humans is 107 boys to 100 girls or 1000 boys per 934 girls. This is because mortality is higher among males because of a higher incidence of severe inherited diseases, like hemophilia and muscular dystrophy, so that the ratio becomes about equal in young adults. But the survey shows that there are 1062 girls per 1000 boys in Bihar, 1018 in Goa, 1033 in Tamil Nadu, 1015 in Uttarakhand and 1011 in Bengal. Only Haryana fails with a ratio of 876 girls per 1000 boys. What is happening in India? Are people aborting boys or is the widespread use of plastics resulting in a natural selection of girls? Very interesting! If the overall health of Indians has increased why are over 50% of children anemic? The survey shows that virtually every household has an improved source of drinking water and sanitation facilities have improved, though no where near desired levels. Perhaps children are suffering from worms which enter human bodies through the feet. Hence, open defecation with walking barefoot results in worm infestation. Perhaps wearing sandals have the same effect because soil comes in contact with feet. A pilot project is running in the Gajapati district of Odisha in which children are fed rice, fortified with iron powder, in their midday meals. Excellent idea. Men normally need 1 mg of iron per day while post adolescent women need 2 mg per day. However, all children in rural areas should be dewormed every 6 months. All it needs is one tablet of Albendazole 400 mg. Surveys are fine but what we need is proper research into what the numbers mean. Else it will be window dressing.

Should the government protect people from the rich?

This is election year in the US and a series of articles have focused attention on the activities of the billionaire Koch brothers. There are 4 brothers, but David and Charles are the ones that people mean when they talk about the Koch brothers. The 2 brothers are apparently worth $41 billion each through their control of Koch Industries which are in oil, chemicals, agricultural and consumer products. A new book, 'Dark Money' by Jane Meyer attempts to shed light on the 2 brothers. Their father, Fred Koch built his fortune through business deals in Nazi Germany and Stalin's Russia. The brothers were brought up by a fearsome governess who administered castor oil and enemas if they did not open their bowels every morning. Why this interest in a couple of billionaires? Because Charles Koch has an intense hatred of government, apparently because of excessive discipline as a child, and the brothers are using their wealth to support extreme right wing politicians in Congress who will pass laws to privatise social security, reduce environment laws and reduce punishment for white collar crimes, while toughening punishment for child sex offenders. They support libertarian organisations, like the Cato Institute, have campaigned against judges in different states and spent a lot of money to defeat Obama in 2012, failing miserably. They contribute heavily, but secretly, to super PACs which are allowed to criticise candidates they oppose, while supporting a candidate they support, without paying directly into the candidate's campaign. After fierce criticism from Senator Harry Reid the brothers decided to re-brand themselves and are now contributing to several charities. They have adopted 'well-being' as their theme so as to convince people that the government is the enemy and not businesses. They push their message through think-tanks, by supporting fringe societies among university students and by owning several newspapers. A similar picture emerges of the billionaire Barclay brothers of Britain who are extremely secretive about their activities and have bought newspapers to push their points of view. So are these brothers and other conservatives typical robber barons who would rob the poor to enrich themselves? Maybe, but they also run big businesses, employing lots of people and creating wealth in their respective countries. There are numerous studies and articles on the wealthy but none on socialists who do not produce anything but promise to rob the rich to distribute handouts to the poor, while enriching themselves. Socialists aim to control a nation's resources, which they distribute to reward their supporters, creating a form of crony capitalism which enrich politicians, their families and their friends. India is a prime example. Wish we had a few billionaire libertarians.

Professors profess, but who do we follow?

Any opinion by a professor at MIT, in the US, is treated as a heavenly pronouncement by our media. So when a professor says that India's corporate taxes are low, it makes headline news. " We don't talk about taxing the rich in any form, it's all about lower taxes....we are still talking about cutting corporate taxes. Our corporate taxes are not high, they are low," he said. He said that there is now a consensus on policies of "redistribution at the bottom end". Why does he say that? Because he is professor at Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab and has written a 'highly acclaimed book Poor Economics'. Our knowledge of economics is not even an infinite fraction of the exalted professor but we feel that since he is a professor of poverty he would have little interest in seeing poverty disappear. If he really wants to reduce poverty in India he would research ways of helping the poor not to have children, which would increase wages by reducing the supply of cheap labor, improve the health of women because of fewer pregnancies, improve the health of children as parents afford better nutrition and improve education by reducing overcrowding in schools, resulting in long term reduction of poverty. In theory, redistribution sounds very seductive. If you take Rs 10,000 in taxes from a billionaire he will not even notice it but if you give Rs 10,000 to a poor man it would immediately relieve stress on him by doubling his income for a month. Trouble is that a lot of this money leaks out from the system. This is known as 'Okun's bucket' after Arthur Okun who likened redistribution to a leaky bucket. In India, where corruption is a way of life, 84% of funds leak out so that the poor are left with pennies. Even charities spend a fraction of all the donations they receive on good causes. But there is very good reason for lower tax rates. Indian startups are shifting their registered offices to Singapore, on reaching a certain size, because tax rates are low there and rules are much simpler. Even worse, Ireland has lowered its corporate tax rate to 6.25% from an already low rate of 12.5% to attract multinational giants like Google, Apple and Microsoft. Naturally, companies will shift their tax bases to where they pay the lowest taxes. What are you going to do, attack Ireland? The EU has accused Apple of evading $8 billion in taxes. Apple has paid 318 million Euros to settle a tax case in Italy. All by basing operations in Ireland. Even in the US, where MIT is based, the rich spend millions of dollars to save hundreds of millions in taxes. National wealth vanishes overseas, quite legitimately. Is there nothing the government can do? Simplify tax laws, keep them constant and do away with loopholes. It is idiotic to allow companies to show zero profits and then force them to pay a Minimum Alternate Tax. A professor at Harvard thinks that inclusion is better than redistribution. Harvard or MIT, who wins?