Sunday, August 23, 2026

Trillions in debt.

"UK employers shed more workers in July," as "Job vacancies dropped further to 707,000 in the May to July period, the lowest since 2021." "Total US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, and has now surged by a third in less than five years." "Japan's economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June," and so "Japan's budget requests for next year are set to hit a record that may overstate the rate of fiscal expansion." While, "China is doubling down on a targeted program that's tapping fiscal resources to drive borrowing by businesses and consumers." ET. "The Congressional Budget Office projects that...net interest payments will total $16.2 trillion over the next decade, rising from an annual cost of $1 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036." Interest costs will be 3.2% of GDP this year, as a share of federal revenues interest costs was 18.5% at the end of last year, and will reach 15.7% as a percentage of  total spending by 2029. pgpf.org. For comparison, India's "Interest payments on government debt for FY 2026-27 amount to Rs 14.04 trillion, consuming approximately 25% of total expenditure. This makes interest payments the single largest expenditure head, exceeding defence spending and subsidies." "Years of fiscal deficit have accumulated government debt exceeding 55% of GDP." govtbudget.com. "The amount the US owes compared to its annual economic output - known as its debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio - is 125.8% according to the IMF." UK's ratio is 103.6%, China's is 106.9%, while Japan's is highest at 200%. BBC. "A sell-off in US government bonds is pushing up borrowing costs," and "the rise in yields on the 10-year Treasury is pushing up mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs" as "Companies typically borrow at a Treasury yield plus a credit spread that compensates investors for default and liquidity risk." It is also bad news for the world as, "A sustained rise in US yields can pull capital towards dollar assets, strengthening the dollar and tightening financial conditions abroad which makes it harder for...indebted governments and emerging-market borrowers to refinance." Reuters. Perhaps in anticipation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed banks to borrow from non-resident Indians (NRI) at higher rates of interest and promised to compensate higher repayment costs due to rupee depreciation. India's largest private bank, HDFC is paying 6.25% on 3-5 year US dollars. "The RBI said authorized dealer banks had reported $65.397 billion in FCNR(B) inflows as of 21 August. Overseas foreign currency borrowings (OFCB) contributed another $4.86 billion and external commercial borrowings (ECB) contributed $2.591 billion, for a total of $72.85 billion. Mint. All these loans will need to be paid back in foreign exchange, with interest. China is also a problem. China's augmented debt Is 135% of GDP and "Unlike US and most other countries, China is seeing debts mount rapidly in the private sector as well. Total debt amounts to nearly 350% of GDP, that is higher than US," wrote Ruchir Sharma. To meet its economic growth target, "Beijing has dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Last year, China's trade surplus surged 20% to a record $1.2 trillion. "China's dumping offensive is de-industrializing rival exporters the world over," and "India has been particularly hard hit recently, and has suffered a sharper decline in its share of global manufacturing than many Asian rivals," wrote Sharma. Public debt of the US and China is rising which should mean that they have economic problems. Why would we suffer? That's how weak we are. Sad. 

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