Safety first.

"India has attracted nearly $73 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) special forex swap facility as of 21 August, with most of the inflows coming through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits." And yet, "The rupee was at 95.71 against the US dollar on 8 June when the scheme was announced and stood at 95.69 on 21 August." That is because banks are handing over all the foreign exchange raised to the RBI in exchange for Indian rupees, and so the dollars are not entering the spot market. The money is being added to the foreign currency reserves. CNBCTV18. "India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to $716.9 billion, their highest level in about six months as of the week to August 14, data showed." "The reserves are within striking distance of a record high of $728.5 billion hit in February." Reuters. We need foreign exchange as, "India's merchandise trade deficit widened more than expected to a six-month high of $31.98 billion." "Imports rose to $76.22 billion against $70.84 billion in June, driven by a rise in crude oil prices and surging imports of electronics goods and gold." "Goods exports hit a record high of $44.24 billion for July,...while they were $40.41 billion in June." Reuters. The problem is the lack of investment in manufacturing. "Gross capital formation (GCF) refers to the gross additions to national wealth," from 1. gross fixed capital formation which is acquisition of fixed assets less disposals, 2. changes in the value of inventories and 3. "acquisitions less disposals of valuables." abs.gov. au. While India's GCF/GDP has grown from 15.3% in 1950-51 to 34.6% in 2024-25, the manufacturing GCF/GDP has grown from 2.4% in 1950-51 to 4.3% in 2024-25. Bank lending to large industry increased from 12.6% in 2007-08 to 18% in early 2010s, and has fallen to 8.6% in 2025-26. "Finance and professional services generated not just growth but also white-collar jobs and high tax revenue." This revenue was used for a large scale expansion of welfare programs to cover for a lack of mass employment and, recently, for direct cash transfers to win elections, wrote Roshan Kishore. "India could face a manufacturing GDP gap of up to USD 5.1 trillion by 2047 if it fails to unlock the potential of advanced manufacturing and adopt frontier technologies, according to a report by Angel One, which estimates that the country could miss out on USD 270 billion in additional manufacturing GDP by 2035 and USD 1 trillion by 2047." ET. A paper by SBI caps said that large capital projects require confidence, and so, "When pricing, input costs and end-market demand remain uncertain, companies choose to defer investment." "Government spending on transport, power, logistics and urban infrastructure is providing demand for private-sector suppliers." ET."Indian CEOs should identify their most complex business problems and create dedicated task forces to solve them using AI, rather than limiting their experimentation with the technology to smaller use cases, Anthropic MD Irina Ghose said. Indian business leaders do not like to be seen to be wrong and so are reluctant to take risks. Lack of confidence and a desire to reduce risks are leading to "A few large private banks, along with to law firms and wealth managers, are ducking an unwritten ban to handhold Indian promoter and business families to set up family offices in Singapore and other jurisdictions." "A large Singapore bank has teamed up with two large law firms and a wealth manager in advising families..." and "About Rs 15 billion is estimated to have been remitted in the past two months." ET.  If they are worried about external factors why would they shift their wealth to foreign jurisdictions. Perhaps they have lost confidence in the government and are worried about the desperate measures being adopted by the RBI. They don't dare to speak. So, quietly slink away. Unnoticed, if possible.