Saturday, August 29, 2026

Poor Iranians.

"President Donald Trump arrives at an awkward moment for his presidency on Friday as the US-Israel war against Iran reaches the six-month mark," "And this week his administration said it would turn its focus to increasing economic pressure - rather than military action - to try to finish off Iran." ABC News. Trump must surely have consulted with armed forces generals before declaring war against Iran and it seems that US generals, lulled by their dependence on big bombs, have little clue about reading their enemy and devising strategy accordingly. Not only are they incapable of fighting a war, they could not even withdraw from Afghanistan in an orderly fashion (wikipedia) after then President Joe Biden announced on 14 April 2021 that a drawdown of all 2,500 US troops would begin on 1 May and conclude on 11 September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the war (war.gov). Such was the chaotic incompetence that, "Approximately $7 billion of military equipment the US transferred to the Afghan government over the course of 16 years was left behind in Afghanistan after the US completed its withdrawal from the country in August." "It included aircraft, air-to ground munitions, military vehicles and other materials, according to the DoD report." CNN. In Vietnam the US lost despite the death of "as many as 2 million civilians on both sides and some 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Vietcong fighters." Britannica. On the other side, Iran's Ayatollahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders probably thought that the midterm elections on 3 November 2026, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate up for grabs (wikipedia) will put unbearable pressure on Trump to accept their terms for a deal. Yesterday, "Iran is preparing a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz," as "A Guards spokesperson said Iran would not allow the Strait to reopen unless Washington lifted what Tehran describes as a blockade of Iranian ports while also paying compensation and removing sanctions." Reuters. In short, total capitulation by the US, even as, "Iran condemned the United States' new economic sanctions yesterday as 'state terrorism' while its Supreme Leader said he is banning acts that could harm 'social cohesion' amid concern that more financial pain could could spark unrest at home." Reuters. Even before the new sanctions, "The rial dropped to 2.02 million to the US dollar as trading opened on currency markets. Iran's official Central Bank rate stood at around 1.5 million rial to the dollar, but the market rate is what most Iranians pay." BNN Bloomberg. We Indians may think that the Indian rupee is collapsing, as the rate of exchange has dropped from 91.07 on 2 March to 95.47 on 28 August 2026 (exchangerates.org.uk) but Rs 100 now buys 2.1 million rials. A fall in the currency of such magnitude must result in skyrocketing inflation so Rs 100 now buys "2 kg of tomatoes, around a quarter of a kilogram of chicken and less than half a liter of cooking oil." Mint. "The Iran war's redrawing of the global trade map is forcing Gulf nations to retool their investment playbook, ploughing capital into infrastructure," as "Gulf governments are looking at ways to create permanent, integrated solutions to get round the Strait of Hormuz." Reuters. Once the alternative routes are in place Iran will permanently lose its leverage over the Strait but will still be vulnerable to blockade by the Americans. It cannot use a nuclear weapon to force Gulf states to use the Strait again or against a US naval blockade. The regime is terrified of losing power because they will have to face retribution for their crimes. Will there be a famine with deaths due to starvation? Pakistan is complaining to the world about India cutting off Indus River water (Dawn) but what use are its nuclear weapons? Iranians will be dying of starvation for something they cannot use. Poor Iranians. How stupid? 

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