Why kick our dead soldiers?

Isn't it absolutely bemusing how a completely fabricated confrontation between the government and the opposition is created before each session of the parliament, with active support of a howling media, so that all work will be disrupted by slogan shouting opposition members and bills, vital for the economy and welfare of the people, like the GST bill, will remain in limbo. But this time it is totally incomprehensible. Students in various universities are raising slogan against the hanging of Afzal Guru, who was responsible for the attack on our parliament in 2001. When was he hanged? In February 2013. Who was in government then? The Congress. One Kanhaiya Kumar from JNU has been charged with sedition after calling for the 'barbaadi' or 'destruction' of India. Immediately 455 'academics' from US universities have condemned the arrest and called for freedom of speech. Amazing that they are not protesting about the death sentence on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, blamed for the Boston Marathon bombing which killed 3 people. These stalwarts of free speech dd not call for the destruction of the US when Obama coolly murdered 16 year old Abdulrahman Awlaki and his 17 year old cousin with a drone strike. Of course, foreign loudmouths are nothing compared to Indian imbeciles who think that mindlessly repeating western propaganda makes them intellectual. Like this woman who writes," Kanhaiya Kumar's words are the kind that keep India meaningful. He voiced a productive patriotism, which insists on holding the Constitution to its promise for every last citizen." Perhaps, we could take her seriously if she had met the daughters left behind by Constable Kamlesh Kumari Yadav who died during the attack organised by the same Afzal Guru. Or the families of the 6 Delhi Police and 2 Parliament Security Service personnel, along with a gardener, who died in that attack, protecting the same scum who are sympathising with the JNU rabble today. Just one week back 10 soldiers were buried in an avalanche on Siachin Glacier, 9 died instantly while one died later in hospital. What were they doing in that God forsaken place? They were guarding our nation from attacks by Pakistan. In January there was an attack on an airbase in Pathankot, resulting in the death of 6 soldiers. Why did they sacrifice their lives in defending India? Because they loved their country, which surely makes them patriotic and nationalistic. What an insult to all these heroes when patriots are derided by those they were protecting and nationalism is a word of abuse. Journalists should be reporting the truth instead of repeating words of their political masters. No wonder anger boiled over in Patiala Court. Violence is unacceptable, whether physical or through lies.

How can you enforce an order against double immunity?

What a pickle! Justice CS Kernan of the Madras High Court has been transferred to Calcutta High Court by an order of the Supreme Court on 12 February. In response Justice Kernan has stayed the SC order and asked the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court to submit a written reply through his subordinates by 29 April, to explain himself. He said that he was being targeted because he is a dalit, which means 'oppressed', a term used to refer to lower castes among Hindus. " I will direct the Chennai Commissioner of Police to register cases against the two apex court judges under SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities Act)" he said. " I am in no way subordinate to the Supreme Court. Mine is a separate constitutional office. How can the apex court interfere in my office that too without even hearing my version?" he asked. Justice Kernan's problems go back a few years when the then Chief Justice of the High Court complained that he had barged into his room and hurled a " volley of invectives " at him. This case pits the draconian Prevention of Atrocities Act (on dalits) against the absolute power of judges, who are answerable to no one. At present judges are appointed by a Collegium system, in which a panel of judges meet in secret to select who they want to appoint. The parliament passed a National Judicial Appointments Commission Act but the Supreme Court struck it down, which sets a self-appointed Supreme Court above the elected representatives of the people. Judges cannot be prosecuted for any crime but can only by removed from office by parliament, with at least two-thirds majority. In India Contempt of Court is the greatest crime as shown by the case of Subroto Roy who will be in jail indefinitely unless he provides a bail of Rs 100 billion. The Court told him " you are in jail by choice " while a convicted murderer, serving a life sentence, gets out on furlough, to get married. Furlough is normally granted to soldiers who risk their lives for the nation. Does it make our soldiers guilty of nationalism? However, like the judges dalits are also extremely powerful. There are serious charges of corruption against the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, KG Balakrishnan who steadfastly refuses to resign from his sinecure of Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission. No one dares to file charges against him. Dalit students who fail exams bring charges of bias against the faculty resulting in great harassment. The only way dalits can be truly empowered is by banning castes, like dowry and sex selection have been banned. That will open all temples to every Hindu and all controversies will disappear. Children being born today will grow up truly equal. Will anyone agree?

Could a sudden death decide the next president?

In the US the people get to choose who their party's candidate is going to be for the presidential election, to be held in November. So, in effect they get to choose twice - first a candidate for each of the 2 parties and then the president out of the two. States hold primaries to decide who they want as their candidate and each primary is preceded by a debate. South Carolina is to hold its primary on 20 February for the Republicans and on 27 February for the Democrats. Two contenders, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out of the Republican race after the New Hampshire primary, leaving 6 still standing. A majority of viewers thought that Marco Rubio won the debate in SC, With Donald Trump coming second and Ted Cruz third. The Republican establishment would prefer Rubio to be their candidate so they are frustrated that even though Trump was attacked hard during the debate his popularity remains undiminished. Trump is a clear favorite for the SC primary with polls projecting 35-42% of votes, with Ted Cruz coming second. Why are Trump and Cruz giving heebie jeebies to the Republican Party? Because they feel that if either of them goes on to become the candidate then Republicans will lose down-ballot races. Down-ballot races mean, elections for the entire 435 seats for the House of Representatives, 34 seats in the Senate and governors in 12 states. The liberal media is gloating that Jeb Bush, brother of the previous President, George W, is way down in the polls. They see George W as " arrogant, dishonest and not very bright ". " He was infuriating because his life was a string of undeserved wins, from college admissions to presidential elections," they say. As for Trump, they label him as " ill-informed, inexperienced, bigoted, sexist xenophobe ". Therein lies the problem. They seem to have an utter contempt for the voters, and, hence, for the democratic process. On the Democrat side Hillary Clinton got thumped by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire after scraping through in Iowa on the toss of a coin. Her biggest problem is that she is tainted by the gasbag, Obama. She was the Secretary of State during his first term, which means that she cannot distance herself from the mess he has created all over the world, to win elections. But Obama could still have a great effect on the election if he so chooses. Antonin Scalia, a conservative judge of the Supreme Court died suddenly. The US Supreme Court has 9 judges, of whom Breyer, Ginsberg, Sotomayor and Kagan are seen as liberals, Alito, Thomas and Roberts are conservatives and Kennedy is in the middle. Obama can alter the balance by picking a liberal to replace Scalia . Republicans have sworn not to confirm anyone that Obama picks as replacement, which could set up a huge fight if Obama so chooses, forcing undecided voters to take sides. A sudden death to decide  the next president. Very interesting indeed.

'Idiot' tattooed on their foreheads.

A bunch of countries involved in the destruction of Syria agreed a 'cessation of hostilities', to start in one week, so that aid maybe delivered to suffering civilians. This gives one week to the various combatants to intensify the conflict to try and capture as much territory as they can to create a new reality on the ground. The deal does not call for cessation of attacks against ISIS or the Al Nusra front and so attacks will continue. Some see it as a licence for the Syrian government and Russia to continue with their attacks. Bashar Al-Assad has already said that he intends to reunite the whole of Syria, as long as it takes. This agreement was forced by the desperation in Europe over the refugee crisis. Initially European leaders tried to be high-minded and open their borders to migrants but this encouraged people from North Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh to join the refugees in the hope of getting into Europe. Angela Merkel is deeply unpopular after taking in over one million migrants, with no sign of any easing of the flow. King Abdullah has warned that his country can take no more and if other countries do not help " the dam is going to burst ". Over a 100,000 are massed at the Syria-Turkish border. The complete confusion and bemusement of western governments maybe gauged from their decision to send NATO warships to patrol the Aegean Sea, ostensibly to stop people smugglers. If they see a boat full of migrants with little children what are they going to do? Fire on those boats and sink the lot? Smugglers will abandon ship if they spot a NATO warship which will have to save the migrants and end up as a rescue ship. In any case the vast majority of migrants are crossing the Aegean by inflatables. The smugglers are sitting in offices in Turkey, out of reach of NATO. Turkey is playing a very complex game. It has a promise of $3.4 billion in aid to stop the flow of migrants and easy travel for its own citizens into Europe. Germany already has near 3 million Turks. Will Germans be happier with a million more Turks, instead of Syrians? We wonder. Turkey has refused to let in more refugees unless it gets more money. " We do not have the word 'idiot' written on our foreheads," said President Erdogan of Turkey. No, but you can be too clever. Turkey has been shelling Kurdish militia north of Aleppo, near its border. Kurds are the only 'boots on the ground' fighting ISIS directly. The US has urged Turkey to stop the shelling. Turkey is unable to use planes over Syria as Russia has established a virtual no-fly zone by deploying S-400 missiles. Seeing their clever plans falling apart Saudi Arabia and Turkey have talked about sending in ground troops into Syria. Iran has laughed at the proposal. Turkey wants to drag NATO into a war with Russia, Saudis want to destroy Iran, Kurds want to establish an enclave in the north of Syria, Turkey hates the Kurds, Assad wants absolute power and Russia is warning of a new 'cold war'. Meanwhile the US is to supply F-16s to Pakistan. They were all born with 'idiot' tattooed on their foreheads.

Aren't we proud to have the most qualified beggars in the world?

Delhi Police have arrested a man who was cheating people with promises of getting their children admitted into medical schools. He was charging Rs 1.5 million to Rs 6 million with fake admission forms and letters of admission printed on forged letterheads. Why would people pay so much money as bribes to get admission for their children? It makes economic sense because admission into a private medical school could cost up to Rs 10 million as capitation fees, like donations, and then high tuition fees for over 4 years. More than half the seats in government medical schools are reserved for various categories under caste and for largesse by politicians and civil servants. Last year out of a total of 600 seats in Delhi 246 were in the general category, which means on pure merit, leaving 354 for those with lower marks in qualifying exams. 82 seats were reserved for largesse. With opportunities severely restricted by an accident of birth parents of children relying solely on merit resort to anything to get admission for higher studies. This imposes enormous pressure on teenagers, who are having to cope with the psychological challenges of growing from children to adults. Those who cannot bear it take their own lives. Last year a similar scam, known as the Vyapam scam, rocked the state of Madhya Pradesh. Apparently, 44 people, connected in some way with the scam were found dead, some under mysterious circumstances. It means that the majority of students in medical schools are sub-standard, the majority because of reservations and some because their parents have the money to buy seats. But this is not all. Anyone in India can write Dr in front of his name and a huge number of totally unqualified people do. Anyone with a degree, in physiotherapy, pharmacy, ayurved or chiropody can call himself a doctor and prescribe powerful drugs. Unscrupulous people with large amounts of black money have set up institutes offering degrees. There is no teaching, prompting 3 girls to commit suicide in Tamil Nadu recently. Since there is no teaching students know nothing and demand the right to cheat during exams. Naturally, since they have paid a lot of money for a piece of paper, not knowledge. No wonder politicians and civil servants have given themselves the right to go abroad for treatment, with taxpayer money. With companion. But, medicine is not alone. Over 80% of engineering graduates are unfit for employment, which means duffers. In Agra, 12,000 appeared for the B Ed exam, to qualify for teaching in schools, and 20,000 passed. But no need to despair. A full 78,000, that is 21%, of our country's beggars have passed Class 12. Perhaps we should consult a beggar next time we are ill.

It does not take much intelligence to stampede, does it?

Stock markets are falling all over the world, wiping billions off market capitalization of companies. Central banks have been pouring money into banks, hoping to restart growth by forcing them to lend. When that did not work they cut interest rates to negative, which has made investors suspicious that they are hiding bad news. Analysts are trying to make sense of markets collapsing all round the world. It is China, or maybe the middle east, or the refugees pouring into Europe, or North Korea, or the falling price of crude, predicting a fall in global growth, or maybe it is the banks. Bankers have fiercely resisted any reforms of their practice of playing with depositors' money, so as to increase their profits and consequently their bonuses. Deutsche Bank has declared an eye-watering loss of 5.3 billion pounds leading to a sharp sell-off in banking stocks. They have been playing with Credit Default Swaps which started the rout in 2008. So jittery are the markets that oil price jumped 12.3% yesterday in the hope of a cut in output by the OPEC. Investors are dumping stocks and taking refuge in the safety of sovereign bonds which is driving yields into negative. Why do investors get surprised by the unexpected? It is because we have an imperfect understanding of the world around us which suffices as long things are normal but can find no explanation when they become different. However, one man has been consistently warning about the dangers of asset price bubbles due to the enormous liquidity central banks were pouring into the system. " However, Quantitative Easing and low interest rates do not generate new sources of growth, but simply borrow growth from the future, along with the costs that come with it - misallocation of credit, asset price bubbles and inequality, to name only a few," he wrote on 24 November. "....financial markets, far from disciplining errant policymakers as free-market ideologues would have us believe, merely allowed itself to be inebriated by the exuberance and hubris of central bankers," on 15 December. In other words, dodgy deals. " Investors are confused. They have no right to be. They ought to be concerned. But they are not," on 29 December. And after markets started falling he wrote on 2 February," Corporate executives have engaged in financial engineering to boost stock prices so that their compensation rises. Stock prices have become untethered from fundamentals. Bubbles have to burst and they do so of their own accord." Has India done any better? Pundits were prodding us to invest in shares, predicting a level of 30,000 for the Sensex. Today they are talking of sinking to 15,000. Pundits should read before lecturing us. But then they would not be pundits,would they?

Imprison 11% to get votes from the rest. Very cost effective.

Like a recurring nightmare car rationing, known as the odd-even scheme, will again be imposed on us by the Chief Minister from 15 April, for 15 days. The complete lack of any logic in putting us under house arrest for over seven days, when we will not be able to drive for fear of fines of Rs 2000, is mind boggling. If it is to reduce pollution it should be permanent. What is the point in inconveniencing us for 15 days when the experiment in January did not decrease pollution at all. Apparently surveys conducted by Delhi government has shown that 78% of people want the scheme back, which is being touted as overwhelming support. Is it? Only 10.79% of people in Delhi drive to work in a car, jeep or van. Which means: 1. That 89% of people do not own cars and 2. At least 89% should have supported the scheme. As for 92% saying that they will not buy a second car it merely means that some people either cannot afford to run a second car, or that they use an alternative means of transport, such as a motorbike, which is not banned. However, politicians, especially those with fascist tendencies, are not restricted by facts. Such form of car rationing has been tried in other cities with varied success. It failed miserably in Mexico city and Bogota, both poor countries like India. It succeeded in Paris because it was for only one day and Paris has about one-tenth the number of cars as Delhi. It worked in Beijing because the people are terrified of the government, like we are of this fascist one, because only 20% of vehicles are restricted because and the government gave cash incentives to the people. But if it was so successful why did the Chinese government issue a red alert in December, advising people to avoid outdoor activities? Pollution is blamed for respiratory illnesses in Delhi. If so how do they explain rising incidence of asthma in the US, especially among children? Surely, pollution maybe one factor but allergy is also a very big factor. Alarmed by the rising incidence of allergic and autoimmune diseases enormous research has been carried out in the west and one hypothesis has blamed excessive cleanliness for these conditions. What do studies in India show? Pollution is not being caused by cars and trucks but by brick kilns around Delhi, by wood smoke and by power plants. The study also suggests that Delhi may actually have half the number of cars than thought because registration numbers are not scrapped when cars are trashed.  But fascists are not bothered with facts. The Chief Minister is no fool. He is prepared to torture 11% of the population that own cars to get brownie points from the remaining 89%, which may translate to votes. Surely, journalists should be campaigning against this barbaric imposition? They only recycle the what western people say, as when the wife of a New York Times journalist was crying her eyes out because her son was getting asthma in Delhi. Aw! Let us hope that her son does not get shot in the great US of A, or worse, carry a gun to school, as is common there. Western contempt and a fascist chief minister. Great.

What has the US has that we don't? Dollars.

The government is worried about Indian exports which have been falling for 13 months. In December exports fell by 14.75% to $22.3 billion while imports fell by 3.9% to $33.9 billion, giving a trade deficit of $11.7 billion. Since anything we buy from other countries have to be paid for in dollars it means that we have to earn in dollars from other countries, through exports. The shortfall is made up by remittances sent by people of Indian origin living overseas and by money invested in India by Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs. FIIs invested a total of $89.5 billion in 2014-15, of which $57.2 billion was in debt and $32.3 billion was in shares. FII investment is welcome but dangerous because it can flee suddenly, causing a collapse in the value of the currency, as it did in the East Asian crisis of 1998. " The two major reasons behind declining exports are - falling crude prices and the Indian rupee, which has not depreciated as much as other currencies have. This has made exports from India less competitive," said an Additional Secretary at the Commerce Ministry." A fundamental magic fix to the falling exports is to devalue your currency, which traditionally economies have done in the past, Japan did it, China is doing it, Korea has done it." Exactly. So why is the RBI not allowing the rupee to depreciate like all other countries, including the EU? Because all these countries have very low inflation rates, while our retail inflation is at 5.61%. If the rupee falls prices of imports, especially fuel, will jump and add to inflation. If inflation goes up the RBI will have to increase interest rate, instead of reducing it as other countries have done, and this will hurt the construction industry, which provides employment to 35 million people and is the third highest in Asia in terms of spending. Politicians and civil servants have most of their black money in real estate so they do not want prices to fall. Apart from commodities, such as iron ore, textiles and gems and jewellery India exports automobiles, capital goods and pharmaceuticals. Instead of concentrating on the US and Europe we should be trading with Africa which is straight across the Indian Ocean and, round the tip of South Africa, straight across the Atlantic with South America. Perhaps the most important requirement for robust exports is to maintain the highest quality at the lowest possible price. That needs very hard work and low taxes. The government cannot lower taxes because it has to finance hundreds of handouts and still keep the fiscal deficit under control. India has 1.3 billion people so our manufacturers have a huge market to sell whatever shoddy products they make, proudly named as 'jugaad'. 40% of all generic drugs sold in the US have been made in India yet the FDA in the US has to write warning letters to our companies to maintain standards. The US had a trade deficit of $531.5 billion in 2015. But the US can print dollars and we cannot. Therein lies the difference.

Wealth is not income, so one can be wealthy without paying income tax.

Our liberal, socialist, secular brigade takes every chance to loudly condemn inequality in India. The top 10% holds 370 times the wealth of the poorest 10%. The top 1% holds 53% of the total wealth of the nation, the top 10% owns 76.3% and, conversely, the bottom 90% owns less than 25% of the country's wealth. We all agree that the figures are shameful. But, how do we improve the situation? India has been following socialist policies of reservations in education and government jobs and handouts under various schemes for 67 years and yet inequality is increasing. Inequality took off in 2000 and increased in a straight line under Congress rule till 2008 when the global economic crisis forced the government to stop throwing money around like confetti. Thomas Piketty is right when he says that too few people in India pay income tax. If 10% of people hold 73% of the country's wealth then 10% of 1.30 billion, that is 130 million people, should be paying income tax. But, in actuality only about 3% file income tax returns. There will certainly be some tax evasion but a lot of the blather is just mindless repetition. Most of the so called wealth of the top 10% is most certainly in real estate. The price of any 2 bedroom apartment in Delhi will not be less than Rs 10 million but the person living in it may have inherited it from his father and makes a living from a small grocery shop. So he is a millionaire, paying municipal taxes, but does not earn enough to pay income tax. Farmers are exempt from paying income tax, no matter how rich they are, and get free electricity in many states. This has not only made supply companies bankrupt and saddled state governments with trillions of rupees in debt but it is disastrous for the environment, as farmers deplete ground water by excessive use of water pumps. A study in the US suggests that inequality in that country may not be as severe as people think. People only look at income disparity when lifetime earnings are more important. For example, a retired person with a small income from savings is richer than a newly qualified graduate from IIT, with a student loan, but over the long term there is no comparison. Government schemes, such as MGNREGA, Right to Education and Right to Food, should also part of the calculation. Sadly the self-styled intellectuals in India just repeat what foreigners say and do not research what is actually the situation here. Meanwhile, the government is carrying on with myriad social schemes which may result in increasing fiscal deficit. As the government borrows more from the market bond yields will rise which will put a floor under interest paid by companies. After all, if banks can earn over 8% from sovereign bonds, which are totally safe, they will charge a hefty premium when lending to companies. Will the socialists stop their shrieks? Not a chance.

Is the world headed towards Monopoly money?

The abnormal is becoming the new normal for the global economy, writes a professor. Growth rate is falling because of high debt, which have to be paid, called deleveraging, before new investment can begin. Central banks are distributing money through unconventional means, such as negative deposit rates, quantitative easing, zero interest rate policy and unsterilized forex intervention. But none of that is working because banks are hoarding cash. All this loose money should result in the fall in the value of currencies and cause inflation. Instead, commodity prices have fallen and there is fear of deflation. Currencies are mere pieces of paper, since Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971. The Rs 1000 note says that the Reserve Bank promises to pay Rs 1000, but does not say in what form. The value of currencies are their exchange rates against each other and thus prone to manipulation by central banks. It is possible therefore that this paper edifice may collapse in synchrony, resulting in hyperinflation across the world, leading to global famine. Because of high unemployment workers are unable to negotiate for higher wages. If wages are stagnant or falling how are people paying so much for watching Premier League football in England? Even the great 'vampire squid from hell' of financial companies, Goldman Sachs admits that it may have to take another look at how capitalism works. Profit margins of companies are high by historical standards. This is attributed to mergers and acquisitions, share buy backs and the use of new technology to cut costs by reducing the workforce. High margins should encourage new companies in the same market segment which would increase competition and reduce profits. So, if margins remain high something very abnormal is going on. So much loose money has created a boom in asset prices. The total value of developed real estate in the world has reached $217 trillion, which is 2.7 times the global GDP and is 60% of mainstream global assets, 21% being in North America. $162 trillion is in residential properties owned by 2.5 billion households. In comparison the total value of all the gold ever mined on earth is a mere $6 trillion. The other asset class that has benefited from free money are shares. Stock prices rose to dizzying heights even as central bank monetary policies indicated poor prospects for growth. Stock prices have taken a hammering since the beginning of the year, which is being blamed on a 25 basis points rise in interest rate in the US. So what are central banks going to do to stimulate growth? It seems that it is going to be more of the same. What is the RBI going to do? What can it do? Our retail inflation is already at 5.61% so a weak rupee will only increase it. Instead of reducing rates the RBI may have to increase it. Expect loud howls of anguish.

In a democracy wishing is of no value.

The Director General of the Confederation of Indian Industry presents a wishlist for this year's budget. The Congress could easily put an end to this annual circus by passing the Goods and Services Tax bill which will fix rates of indirect taxes and assist companies to invest in new projects, knowing what their future liabilities will be. This will set an upper limit on expenditure, helping to keep fiscal deficit under control. Politicians do not like their powers on spending to be curtailed. How else will they throw wads of currency in handouts to win votes? One easy and quick way to reduce expenditure is to use Aadhar numbers to pay salaries of central and state government and municipal employees, to cut out fraud in the form of 'ghost employees', and stop blatant theft of taxpayer money, as in laborers being paid Rs 450,000 per month by the Food Corporation of India. So what do our industrialists wish for? Increase consumer confidence by increased public spending. Consumer confidence can only increase if the burden of taxes is reduced and the spectre of inflation disappears. If prices continue to rise the purchasing power of the rupee will fall and so it will keep depreciating against the dollar. Taking the movement of currencies over the last 40 years an investment banker has calculated that anyone starting a job today will see a 5,000% drop in the value of the rupee so that it will cost Rs 150,000 just to fill a car with petrol. He recommends investing in gold to hedge against inflation and that is precisely what Indians are doing, with a jump in gold imports of 179% in December. The balance sheets of public sector banks need to be cleaned so that they can start lending again. All bad loans maybe transferred to a National Asset Management Company, a 'bad bank', which will be empowered to sell off assets of willful defaulters to pay off creditors. Some members of CII will be most upset if this actually comes to pass. Public-Private Partnership has been proven to be useless, as companies delay projects, constantly ask for higher toll and taxes and do not carry out proper maintenance. Low cost housing is a fantasy with land prices in Delhi and Mumbai the same as in Manhattan in New York. Poor people generally have larger families so a tiny flat will be inadequate and, if the project is far away to keep costs down, commuting costs will be prohibitive. There is much celebration of the demographic dividend in India. An aging population in Japan means that there are fewer young people paying taxes to provide old age care. But exactly the same is happening in India, only upside down. Less than 3% of Indians pay income tax and these people have very few children, whereas the poor have many children who are kept alive with massive subsidies. Perhaps, it will be better to wish on a shooting star.

Who is the ringmaster among all the clowns?

Western politicians have been used to dictating to the rest of the world. After all they were colonial masters at one time. But the world has changed so that their actions are rebounding on them. After instigating an armed rebellion in Ukraine, which forced an elected president to seek refuge in Russia, the west imposed sanctions on Russia for supporting Russian speakers in the east of the country. It has not worked out as the west wanted. Ukraine is now a divided country, with the east functioning independently of Kiev, and the current President, Petro Poroshenko presides over an increasingly corrupt government. Sanctions imposed on Russia, coupled with the collapse in oil prices, have devastated the Russian economy. In July the US concluded a nuclear deal with Iran, with a promise to lift economic sanctions. In August the Quds Force Commander, Qassem Soleimani visited Moscow. In September the US warned Russia against any military intervention in Syria but by the end of the month Russia had started bombing rebel positions in that country. In November Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 which was returning from a bombing mission in Syria. Turkey claimed that the plane had strayed into its territory while Russia said it was because son and son-in-law of President RT Erdogan are smuggling oil from ISIS, providing it with funds to pay its fighters, and were angry that oil trucks are being destroyed. The Russian pilot of the plane was shot dead as he parachuted to the ground. Russia is hunting for the killer, Alparsan Celik, a Turkish citizen, who is in hiding in Turkey. Just as the west still thinks that, as former colonial masters, other nations should obey its orders Erdogan dreams of restoring another Ottoman empire. He has been playing tricks, hoping to emerge as the only regional power as other countries grow weaker through fighting. He has been supplying arms to Syrian rebels in an effort to bring down the Assad government. He has been forced to support US bombing of ISIS but is bombing the Kurds, who are the only fighters, fighting ISIS on the ground. As millions of migrants have flooded into Europe fears are growing about large numbers of terrorists entering Europe posing as migrants. Western leaders have no idea on how to control the flood of refugees so the UN has convened a conference in Geneva to broker a ceasefire. Even as the conference got under way Syrian government forces were encircling Aleppo, with the help of Russian bombing, and cutting off supply lines from Turkey. Russia has established a no-fly zone over northern Syria in retaliation for the shooting down of its own plane and is supplying arms to the Kurds, storing more trouble for Turkey in future. Syrian fighters gathering in Geneva are looking at total surrender to Assad. Meanwhile tens of thousands of desperate refugees are gathering at the border with Turkey. Obama, Cameron, Erdogan and other clowns have become spectators. So, who will turn out to be the ringmaster?

Respect for Mr Ajay.

Mr Ajay has no surname. Because he is a cobbler, a mochi, which makes him a lower caste. Everyday he comes from east Delhi and sits on a pavement in Connaught Place where he repairs and polishes shoes all day. His father used to do the same job at the same spot and, as a child, Ajay used to come every evening to take him home because his father would be dead drunk. A common story of poverty, drink and misery. His father died when he was 15 years old, since when he has been doing this work, looking after his mother, his wife, one son and one daughter. " There is no standard for what I earn in a month. It can be less than Rs 10,000 and sometimes it can go up to Rs 15,000. All the money I earn goes in surviving - there are no savings ever," he says. He will have to be careful not to earn anything above Rs 20,834 per month, because he will have to pay income tax on any income above Rs 250,000 in one financial year, including 2% cess for education and 1% cess for higher education. If he wants to educate his children in private schools then he will have to pay exorbitant fees because 25% of seats are reserved for poor children under the Right to Education Act. If, by any chance, any of his children wish to study in IIT he should be prepared to pay fees of Rs 300,000 per year, or see his child rack up a loan bill of over Rs 1.2 million by the time they start working. He, or any member of his family, should not fall ill because doctor's fees and medicines will set him back by several thousand rupees. If he should require admission to hospital he will have to pay service tax on his bill. He should not mind because he will be contributing to the earnings of people he has elected to levy taxes on him. Their entitlements include services he cannot even imagine. He should be proud that members of parliament and civil servants are entitled to travel abroad for treatment on the taxes he pays. With companion. Of course, he can attend any of the government hospitals where he will have to wait in queue for hours to see a doctor, then for tests, and come back the next day to queue again to show the results to the doctor. He will be earning nothing for days, until he gets better. He has no hope for his future and neither the future of his children. It is the expense that bothers him. " Issi ka toh rona hai (that is what makes me cry)," he says. The RBI Governor explains that the rate of inflation has come down enough so that a pensioner can buy more dosas even if he is getting much less in interest on his savings. Ajay has no savings so inflation hurts. But Ajay is not begging, either for handouts as the rural poor or for huge bungalows in Lutyens Delhi, like our wealthy politicians. He is working with dignity. We salute Mr Ajay.

A handout by any other name.

It is the tenth anniversary of MGNREGA, which provides 100 days 'employment' to every rural person who asks for it. Politicians are rushing to take credit for the scheme and abuse each other for not implementing it properly. Over Rs 3 trillion have been spent on the scheme in 10 years and 128.6 million are said to be working under the scheme. It started as guaranteed payment of Rs 100 per day for 100 days and the amount has more than doubled today. Naturally, it is seen as a pure handout by many but for socialists it is a solution to all problems stemming from rural poverty. " While most critics lament the quality of assets created under MGNREGA, there is now increasing evidence based on rigorous studies, which suggest that not only has the asset quality been better than comparable government programmes, they are also used more by the community," writes a professor from JNU. However, he does not give any reference to the said studies or a list of assets created. How many roads were laid, how many bridges built or how many electric poles erected. Then he goes on to give the game away. " Not only has it led to the creation of a class of workers who are using the MGNREGA as a safety net, but these workers are also able to use it as a bargaining tool for extraction of higher wages," he writes. Exactly, it has taken a lot of people out of the rural labor market, raised rural wages, without increasing productivity, and caused food inflation, which is harming the very poor the scheme is supposed to protect. Food prices have been falling globally, grain prices falling by 35% compared to 2011, yet food prices continue to rise at over 6% in India. Why? Two poor monsoons are certainly to blame but the inflation has been worse in rural than in urban areas. High cost of food is contributing to retail inflation of 5.61%. The growth of trading in food is adding to GDP growth, taking it over 7%. Having caused food inflation with one scheme the government is going to announce a food security scheme of Rs 1.30 trillion. Not much point in dishing out wads of cash if there is no food to buy. So the government is going to import vast quantities of food, 2.8 million tonnes of corn, 4.5 million tonnes of oilmeals, 5 million tonnes of lentils and an unknown quantity of sugar. Yet, just a few months back sugarcane farmers were committing suicide because the price had plummeted because of a bumper crop. Spending so much on giveaways means that the government is unable to control its expenditure. Although the RBI has cut interest rate to 6.75% bond yields are at 7.8% because of heavy borrowing by the government. There are calls for the government to allow the fiscal deficit to increase to provide more stimulus to the economy. This is the game that the Congress played and look what happened. Will they never learn?

Why do we prefer fantasy in real life?

Eminent economist, John Maynard Keynes is reputed to have said," When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" In India policies are not based on information but on howling mobs, called activists. On the one hand they demand the right to food for all the poor but also demand that no trees should be cut, pesticides used to protect crops or dams be built to provide water for irrigation, so as not to damage the environment. Gender selection in babies is illegal in India. However, according to politicians and activists gender selection is still rampant. A census conducted by the government reveals that there are 944 girls for every 1000 born. The normal sex ratio in humans is 934 girls for every 1000 boys. Although there are minor variations this is true for every country in the world. If we look at the table for India there is an excess of girls in 18 states, up to Lakshadweep, after which the ratio falls off so that the average for the country is quite normal. A few days back Mrs Maneka Gandhi, Minister for Women and Child Development proposed that the law should be turned upside down so that gender determination is made compulsory and the baby will be followed to birth to prevent abortion of female babies. Naturally this has provoked a knee jerk outbreak of howling. The ignorance is breathtaking. First, there should be a study as to why there is such a huge excess of girls in Kerala and Puducherry. That might give a solution to female feticide. Second, do not waste resources on states that are already doing well so that resources are concentrated on the states that are doing badly. Women are under enormous pressure to produce boys so it is amazing that not one woman, politician or activist, is focusing on the real reason as to who is responsible for producing girls. Women have two X chromosomes so can contribute only an X, while men have one X and one Y, so it is the father who selects the sex of child. Our government keeps threatening to respond severely to repeated attacks by Pakistan but continues to talk peace even after the attack on the airbase in Pathankot. Yesterday, Hafiz Saeed praised the attack and promised new ones. So what is the fig leaf provided by our intrepid leaders? His group, the JuD, was not responsible for the attack but JeM was. Mad dogs cannot be distinguished with alphabets, you just shoot the lot. In an effort to control black money and reduce outflow of precious foreign currency the government made it mandatory to provide PAN number for any purchase of gold above Rs 200,000, which has only increased unofficial trading. The reason why people buy gold is because they expect prices to rise by double digits in the medium to long term. This means that they do not trust politicians to keep prices under control. Ascertain the facts, then act on them.

Why do Indians change when they go to the US?

When we read articles praising Indians we feel a warm glow of satisfaction. Trouble is that these are not really Indians, but Persons of Indian Origin, who are now citizens of the US. There was Rajeev Motwani who helped in developing the algorithm which started Google, which is now headed by CEO, Sundar Pichai. There is Satya Nadella at Microsoft, Nikesh Arora at Softbank, Shantanu Narayen at Adobe, Francisco D'Souza at Cognizant, Ajay Banga at Mastercard, Indra Nooyi at Pepsi and so on. Indians make up just 6% of the Silicon Valley workforce but 15% of Startups. Average income for Indian households is $86,135 per year, as opposed to $51,914 for all Americans. Indians are not just management types who head large multinationals. There are many famous in research. There is Rakesh Jain in tumor biology, Rangaswamy Srinivasan in ablative photo decomposition, Praveen Chaudhuri in materials science and B Jayant Baliga in insulated gate bipolar transistor, among many others, whose work is earning billions of dollars in industry. So why do Indians excel in the US and not at home? Part of the reason is our humongous population of 1.3 billion fighting among each other for a larger slice of fixed resources. The US is 4 times the size of India with 300 million people. The main reason is politics. Socialism in written in our constitution, which means you win elections by turning out vast multitudes of illiterate graduates by saving on quality. A panel has recommended that fees at IITs should be increased by 200% to Rs 300,000 a year. The thinking is that since Sundar Pichai, CEO at Google, qualified from IIT Kharagpur then all graduates will go on to earn millions of dollars, so they should study on loan. The majority of Indians do not earn Rs 300,000 a year and so will not be able to find guarantors for the loans and what if a student is unable to work full time through illness after qualification. How will he repay the loan? The IITs are starved of funds because government funds are used up in getting millions into schools and colleges, to prevent social unrest, even if they learn nothing. The government is left with no money to fund research. US universities have billions of dollars in endowments and university research departments tie up with companies so that there is constant innovation. Since graduates from IITs are doing so well they should have no problems in collecting donations from alumni. That is where politicians are a millstone around education. A former minister wanted all donations to go through his ministry. The same minister recently said that IITs produce scholars only for foreign countries. He does not even understand the damage he has inflicted. Since there is no quality companies do not take risks in India as they do in the US. So no progress. We will have to be satisfied with reading about Indians abroad.

Isn't it democratic if we are getting free service?

India is an older democracy than the US because our constitution guaranteed the right to vote to every citizen from the time it was written while blacks were allowed to vote in the US only after the civil rights movement in the 1960s, writes a professor. Although the British Parliament was established in 1701, women were not allowed to vote until the suffragette movement won that right in 1928. So what is 'democracy'? 'Democracy' comes from the Greek words 'demos' which means 'the people' and 'kratos' which means 'power'. But is true democracy really possible? In India it means going and pressing a button on an electronic voting machine every 5 years, following which politicians are free to do whatever they want under the protection of 'innocent until proven guilty', which is a fraud perpetrated on citizens because cases drag on forever so criminals are never punished. Americans at least have a 'Bill of Rights', consisting of 10 amendments, which give the right to property, free speech and the rule of law. We have nothing. Politicians give rights to people, not for equitable distribution of opportunities, but to divide people into little segments so as to get votes. Those left out feel discriminated against and angry. Earlier we had the Patels agitating for reservations in Gujarat and now we have Kapu agitation in Andhra. A Nobel Prize winning economist argues that poor people will always vote for increasing taxes on the rich to help the poor, which is not bad for the economy, and that is why the rich are against democracy. " All advanced nations have had substantial welfare states since the 1940s - welfare states that, inevitably, have stronger support among poorer citizens. But you don't, in fact, see countries descending into tax-and-spend death spirals - and no, that's not what ails Europe," he writes. We would suggest that it is because social security and Medicare is available for everyone but in countries where welfare is targeted only towards the poor, as in Brazil, Venezuela and India, taxes are very high to pay for social schemes, which harm business and increase poverty. There is constant attention on the top 1% of people who own more than half of all the wealth in the world. In the US, which has the largest number of billionaires in the world, the top 1% pay nearly half of all federal taxes. The recent election in Bihar is held up as an example of the poor voting to exert their rights to equitable distribution of resources. Was it? They were voting for handouts and not for some nebulous gains, from education or from reforms, in the distant future. It is a bitter truth that billionaires are rich because they innovate, have radical ideas, work hard and take risks to enrich our lives. After all Google, Facebook, Instagram and Youtube are free. You can phone across the world on Skype, for free. You cannot get any more democratic than that, can you?

Monkey see, monkey do in the Year of the Monkey?

It is beginning to seem increasingly likely that the global economy may plunge into recession towards the end of this year. Last month the European Central Bank cut interest rate to minus 0.3% and promised to continue its bond buying program to March 2017 or beyond. Then a few days back the Bank of Japan reduced interest rate to minus 0.1% while continuing its $666 billion bond buying program. Negative interest rates are meant to discourage savers from saving money, so that increased spending will stimulate production and create jobs, and force banks to lend money by making it expensive for them to park funds with the central bank. Critics say that it is just another way to devalue the currency by forcing foreign funds to look for returns elsewhere. However, while the yen fell on the news the Euro gained 2% against the dollar. No one is sure as to what is going on in China. What everyone is sure of is that the Chinese stock market has been falling despite government support. Part of the problem is that companies with political connections list on the stock market so the government is forced to prop it up. The Peoples Bank has poured $52 billion into banks to increase liquidity before the Chinese New Year holidays. It will be the year of the Monkey and an improvement in global economy is predicted. China is worried about the flight of capital as people fear that the yuan will continue to drop in value against the dollar. Foreign reserves have fallen by $700 billion and an article has warned George Soros, famous for making $1 billion in 3 days by short selling the pound in 1992, not to attempt the same with the yuan. Which may turn out to be a red rag to a bull. Oil prices have collapsed which is disastrous for economies like Russia and Venezuela and is even forcing Saudi Arabia to increase the price of fuel for its own citizens and to sell shares in Aramco. Sanctions on Iran being lifted will depress oil prices still further as Iran tries to catch up for all the wasted years. Whether the increased economic pressure on Arab oil producers leads to greater disturbance in the middle east remains to be seen. The US economy grew by just 0.7% in the last quarter of last year despite very low fuel prices, which is good for consumers. The strong dollar is hurting exports. Apparently," the bond market has been screaming recession for weeks ". High yield bonds or junk bonds are in meltdown which is another sign that the US economy could weaken. The Swiss government proposes to pay every adult 425 pounds and every child 100 pounds to end poverty. No 'targeted subsidy' here. Switzerland already has a negative interest rate and this maybe a way of increasing spending and creating inflation. A global scenario of monkey see, monkey do. It is the Year of the Monkey after all.

Can the GDP grow while production is falling?

Why are politicians constantly harping on the growth rate of our GDP, or Gross Domestic Product? GDP is a total of all the goods and services produced by the country and thus is a measure of the health of the economy. A robust growth rate gives bragging rights to the party in power although it means nothing to citizens because our comfort is dependent on our ability to earn a decent living without our lives being made difficult by arbitrary rule changes, such as the odd-even car restrictions in Delhi, or the lack of basic services, such as good roads and constant electricity supply. In terms of GDP India is apparently the fastest growing economy in the world, with the GDP growing at 7.2% in the first half of the financial year. If the economy is growing so strongly then more wealth is being created, demand must be strong and industrial output must be soaring. But other figures do not support such a conclusion. The Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing has been falling after a spike in July and the Wholesale Price Index has been falling for over a year. The capital goods sector, which indicates new investment, fell by 24.4% and yet Consumer Prices increased by 5.6% in December. How is it possible that the economy is growing while production is going down? Private consumption provides 57% of total demand and 54% of total consumption is spent on food, which means that food accounts for 31% of total demand. Food prices for consumers have risen by 6.3% but the wholesale price of food has risen by only 0.6%. So, the bulk of the rise in food prices has been due to trading in food, writes a professor. It is this that accounts for the high GDP growth. High spending on food means that households have less money to spend on consumer items, which accounts for falling industrial output in a high growth economy. To give a more meaningful picture Ambit Capital has come out with India Keqiang Index, after the Chinese Premier Li Kiquang, which is based on auto sales, capital goods and power consumption. This gives a growth rate of around 6% year on year. Falling demand means falling profits, which hampers companies from servicing their debt. This is proved by a 14% rise in pledging of shares by promoters. The proportion of shares pledged by promoters has risen from 27% of total holdings to 47%, from Rs 1.28 trillion to Rs 2.03 trillion. The other indication of poor output is the rising volume of bad loans in public sector banks. Exports are also sliding because of the weakness in the global economy. So the trade deficit is increasing. If more capital flows out the rupee will fall and so it is. How can the economy be growing so strongly when everything is going down? All very strange.

Zika will not be noticed in Delhi.

The government of India is to issue a travel advisory, asking pregnant women not to travel to countries suffering an epidemic of Zika virus disease. Earlier the Indian Medical Association issued a similar warning to pregnant women. What is the Zika virus? Apparently it is a virus related to dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever which was first detected in monkeys in the Zika forest in Uganda. Hence the name. Monkeys are the natural reservoir, like in the case of the Ebola virus. There is some anecdotal evidence of the virus spreading through sexual liaison so the advisory should surely include men as well. And not just recently married young men. An old man may carry the virus back to India and then get bitten by an Aedes aegipti female who then spreads it to a young woman. Also Ascending Paralysis, or Guillain-Barre syndrome, can affect men as well as women and, as the name suggests, weakness usually starts in the legs and spreads upwards to affect respiratory muscles, requiring ventilation in an intensive care unit to keep the patient alive. Treatment is therefore very expensive. Logically, the advisory should include everybody. Trouble with the Zika is that 80% of people get no, or minimal flu-like symptoms, which they ignore, but it has a devastating effect on the baby, causing a small head or microcephaly. In that respect it behaves like the German measles or Rubella virus. The vaccine for the Rubella is included in the MMR vaccine and is mandatory for every baby. Apparently it is difficult to test for the Zika because it cross reacts with antibodies to dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. Anyone travelling to African countries where yellow fever is endemic must take a vaccine before travel. The other 2 diseases have no vaccines as yet, although a vaccine against dengue is in Phase III trial. We are told that the Zika virus is 'spreading explosively' in South America because people there have no immunity against the virus, but if there is cross-reactivity with other viruses then they must have at least partial immunity to the Zika. The BCG vaccine against tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, seems to offer some resistance against leprosy, caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Delhi reported 10,683 cases of dengue last year because the AAP government did not get the drains cleaned before monsoon, resulting in stagnation of water, which is ideal for breeding mosquitoes. 41 people died. Vast number of mild cases must have gone unreported. Municipal workers in east Delhi are on strike because they have not been paid, causing garbage to pile up. If the Zika does get here we can expect an epidemic. Maybe there has been an epidemic already, causing small brains. That may explain why people voted for this gang.